A model-derived short-term estimation method of effective size for small populations with overlapping generations

Population Genomics Training for the Next Generation of Conservation Geneticists: ConGen 2018 Workshop

The increasing availability and complexity of next-generation sequencing (NGS) data sets make ongoing training an essential component of conservation and population genetics research. A workshop entitled “ConGen 2018” was recently held to train researchers in conceptual and practical aspects of NGS data production and analysis for conservation and ecological applications. Sixteen instructors provided helpful lectures, discussions, and hands-on exercises regarding how to plan, produce, and analyze data for many important research questions. Lecture topics ranged from understanding probabilistic (e.g., Bayesian) genotype calling to the detection of local adaptation signatures from genomic, transcriptomic, and epigenomic data. We report on progress in addressing central questions of conservation genomics, advances in NGS data analysis, the potential for genomic tools to assess adaptive capacity, and strategies for training the next generation of conservation genomicists.

A globally threatened shark, Carcharias taurus, shows no population decline in South Africa

Knowledge about the demographic histories of natural populations helps to evaluate their conservation status, and potential impacts of natural and anthropogenic pressures. In particular, estimates of effective population size obtained through molecular data can provide useful information to guide management decisions for vulnerable populations. The spotted ragged-tooth shark, Carcharias taurus (also known as the sandtiger or grey nurse shark), is widely distributed in warm-temperate and subtropical waters, but has suffered severe population declines across much of its range as a result of overexploitation. Here, we used multilocus genotype data to investigate the demographic history of the South African C. taurus population. Using approximate Bayesian computation and likelihood-based importance sampling, we found that the population underwent a historical range expansion that may have been linked to climatic changes during the late Pleistocene. There was no evidence for a recent anthropogenic decline. Together with census data suggesting a stable population, these results support the idea that fishing pressure and other threats have so far not been detrimental to the local C. taurus population. The results reported here indicate that South Africa could possibly harbour the last remaining, relatively pristine population of this widespread but vulnerable top predator.

neogen: A tool to predict genetic effective population size (Ne ) for species with generational overlap and to assist empirical Ne study design

Molecular genetic estimates of population effective size (N_e ) lose accuracy and precision when insufficient numbers of samples or loci are used. Ideally, researchers would like to forecast the necessary power when planning their project. neogen (genetic N_e for Overlapping Generations) enables estimates of precision and accuracy in advance of empirical investigation and allows exploration of the power available in different user-specified age-structured sampling schemes. neogen provides a population simulation and genetic power analysis framework that simulates the demographics, genetic composition, and N_e , from species-specific life history, mortality, population size, and genetic priors. neogen guides the user to establish a tractable sampling regime and to determine the numbers of samples and microsatellite or SNP loci required for accurate and precise genetic N_e estimates when sampling a natural population. neogen is useful at multiple stages of a study's life cycle: when budgeting, as sampling and locus development progresses, and for corroboration when empirical N_e estimates are available. The underlying model is applicable to a wide variety of iteroparous species with overlapping generations (e.g., mammals, birds, reptiles, long-lived fishes). In this paper, we describe the neogen model, detail the workflow for the point-and-click software, and explain the graphical results. We demonstrate the use of neogen with empirical Australian east coast zebra shark (Stegostoma fasciatum) data. For researchers wishing to make accurate and precise genetic N_e estimates for overlapping generations species, neogen facilitates planning for sample and locus acquisition, and with existing empirical genetic N_e estimates neogen can corroborate population demographic and life history properties.

Prediction and estimation of effective population size

Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter in population genetics. It has important applications in evolutionary biology, conservation genetics and plant and animal breeding, because it measures the rates of genetic drift and inbreeding and affects the efficacy of systematic evolutionary forces, such as mutation, selection and migration. We review the developments in predictive equations and estimation methodologies of effective size. In the prediction part, we focus on the equations for populations with different modes of reproduction, for populations under selection for unlinked or linked loci and for the specific applications to conservation genetics. In the estimation part, we focus on methods developed for estimating the current or recent effective size from molecular marker or sequence data. We discuss some underdeveloped areas in predicting and estimating Ne for future research.