Integrating genetic analysis of mixed populations with a spatially explicit population dynamics model

Large inter-stock differences in catch size-at-age of mature Atlantic salmon observed by using genetic individual origin assignment from catch data

Genetic individual assignment of river stock of origin of mixed stock catch fish offers a tool to analyze size differences among river stocks. Data on the genetically identified river stock of origin of individual fish from commercial mixed stock catches were used to compare the catch size-at-age of mature Atlantic salmon catch fish (Salmo salar) from different rivers in the Baltic Sea. In this application of genetic mixed stock modeling, individual assignments of the river stock of origin were analyzed together with length- and weight-at-age data for individual catch fish. The use of four genetic stock identification based methods was compared for defining the length distributions of caught mature salmon in different river stocks. The catch data included information on maturing salmon in the northern Baltic Sea over the years 2000–2013. DNA microsatellite data on 17 loci and information on the smoltification age were used to assign spawners to their stock of origin. All of the compared methods for using probabilistic stock of origin data in our case yielded very similar estimates of the final mean length distributions of the stocks. The Bayesian mixture model yielded slightly more conservative estimates than the direct probability method, threshold method, or the modified probability method. The catch size between spawners of a same sex and age from river stocks differed significantly and the differences were large. The mean catch weight of 1-sea-winter old mature males in different rivers varied from 1.9 kg to 2.9 kg, from 5.1 kg to 7.5 kg for 2-sea-winter old males, from 5.0 kg to 7.2 kg for 2-sea-winter old females, and from 8.2 kg to 10.8 kg for 3-sea-winter-old females. The mean size of caught wild salmon spawners in each year-class was on average smaller than that of the hatchery-reared and sea ranched stocks.

A large wild salmon stock shows genetic and life history differentiation within, but not between, rivers

Anadromous salmonid fishes frequently exhibit strong geographic population structuring. However, population genetic differentiation of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at fine geographic scales differs across equivalent spatial extents in different regions. So far, fine-scale genetic differentiation has not been assessed in rivers of the Baltic Sea, a region that contains an evolutionarily distinct Atlantic salmon lineage. Thus, Baltic salmon are currently managed on the river level, without focus on potential genetic structure and diversity within rivers. Here, we used microsatellites to characterize the genetic structure of wild juvenile salmon sampled throughout the interconnected, northern Baltic Tornio and Kalix Rivers. We found genetic differentiation within the two rivers, but not between them: salmon in the upper reaches differed from individuals in the lower reaches, regardless of river system. Further, examining smolts migrating from the river to the sea and adults returning from the sea to spawn, we found an association between the genetic structure and seasonal migration timing. Out-migrating smolts genetically assigned to upper river reaches were older and tended to reach the sea later in the season than smolts from the lower reaches. In contrast, mature adults originating from the upper reaches returned to the river early in the season. Our observation of genetic population structuring between downstream and upstream reaches of the large Tornio and Kalix rivers, and its association with migration timing, implies that careful temporal management of the northern Baltic fisheries would help to preserve the diversity and sustainability of the wild salmon stocks of these rivers.

Population and size-specific distribution of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in the Baltic Sea over five decades

Population-specific assessment and management of anadromous fish at sea requires detailed information about the distribution at sea over ontogeny for each population. However, despite a long history of mixed-stock sea fisheries on Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, migration studies showing that some salmon populations feed in different regions of the Baltic Sea and variation in dynamics occurs among populations feeding in the Baltic Sea, such information is often lacking. Also, current assessment of Baltic salmon assumes equal distribution at sea and therefore equal responses to changes in off-shore sea fisheries. Here, we test for differences in distribution at sea among and within ten Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations originating from ten river-specific hatcheries along the Swedish Baltic Sea coast, using individual data from >125,000 tagged salmon, recaptured over five decades. We show strong population and size-specific differences in distribution at sea, varying between year classes and between individuals within year classes. This suggests that Atlantic salmon in the Baltic Sea experience great variation in environmental conditions and exploitation rates over ontogeny depending on origin and that current assessment assumptions about equal exploitation rates in the offshore fisheries and a shared environment at sea are not valid. Thus, our results provide additional arguments and necessary information for implementing population-specific management of salmon, also when targeting life stages at sea.

Close relatives in population samples: Evaluation of the consequences for genetic stock identification

Determining the origin of individuals in mixed population samples is key in many ecological, conservation and management contexts. Genetic data can be analyzed using genetic stock identification (GSI), where the origin of single individuals is determined using Individual Assignment (IA) and population proportions are estimated with Mixed Stock Analysis (MSA). In such analyses, allele frequencies in a reference baseline are required. Unknown individuals or mixture proportions are assigned to source populations based on the likelihood that their multilocus genotypes occur in a particular baseline sample. Representative sampling of populations included in a baseline is important when designing and performing GSI. Here, we investigate the effects of family sampling on GSI, using both simulated and empirical genotypes for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We show that nonrepresentative sampling leading to inclusion of close relatives in a reference baseline may introduce bias in estimated proportions of contributing populations in a mixed sample, and increases the amount of incorrectly assigned individual fish. Simulated data further show that the induced bias increases with increasing family structure, but that it can be partly mitigated by increased baseline population sample sizes. Results from standard accuracy tests of GSI (using only a reference baseline and/or self‐assignment) gave a false and elevated indication of the baseline power and accuracy to identify stock proportions and individuals. These findings suggest that family structure in baseline population samples should be quantified and its consequences evaluated, before carrying out GSI.

Inferring Atlantic salmon post-smolt migration patterns using genetic assignment

Understanding migratory patterns is important for predicting and mitigating unwanted consequences of environmental change or anthropogenic challenges on vulnerable species. Wild Atlantic salmon undergo challenging migrations between freshwater and marine environments, and the numbers of salmon returning to their natal rivers to reproduce have declined over several decades. Mortality from sea lice linked to fish farms within their seaward migration routes is proposed as a contributing factor to these declines. Here, we used 31 microsatellite markers to establish a genetic baseline for the main rivers in the Hardangerfjord, western Norway. Mixed stock analysis was used to assign Atlantic salmon post-smolts caught in trawls in 2013-2017 back to regional reporting units. Analyses demonstrated that individuals originating from rivers located in the inner region of the fjord arrived at the outer fjord later than individuals from middle and outer fjord rivers. Therefore, as post-smolts originating from inner rivers also have to migrate longer distances to exit the fjord, these data suggest that inner fjord populations are more likely to be at risk of mortality through aquaculture-produced sea lice, and other natural factors such as predation, than middle or outer fjord populations with earlier exit times and shorter journeys. These results will be used to calibrate models estimating mortality from sea lice on wild salmon for the regulation of the Norwegian aquaculture industry.