Higham M, Dumelle M, Hammond C, Ver Hoef J, Wells J. An Application of Spatio-temporal Modeling to Finite Population Abundance Prediction.
JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL, BIOLOGICAL, AND ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS 2023;
28:1-25. [PMID:
37844016 PMCID:
PMC10569113 DOI:
10.1007/s13253-023-00565-y]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 06/22/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/18/2023]
Abstract
Spatio-temporal models can be used to analyze data collected at various spatial locations throughout multiple time points. However, even with a finite number of spatial locations, there may be a lack of resources to collect data from every spatial location at every time point. We develop a spatio-temporal finite-population block kriging (ST-FPBK) method to predict a quantity of interest, such as a mean or total, across a finite number of spatial locations. This ST-FPBK predictor incorporates an appropriate variance reduction for sampling from a finite population. Through an application to moose surveys in the east-central region of Alaska, we show that the predictor has a substantially smaller standard error compared to a predictor from the purely spatial model that is currently used to analyze moose surveys in the region. We also show how the model can be used to forecast a prediction for abundance in a time point for which spatial locations have not yet been surveyed. A separate simulation study shows that the spatio-temporal predictor is unbiased and that prediction intervals from the ST-FPBK predictor attain appropriate coverage. For ecological monitoring surveys completed with some regularity through time, use of ST-FPBK could improve precision. We also give an R package that ecologists and resource managers could use to incorporate data from past surveys in predicting a quantity from a current survey.
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