Spatially explicit management of genetic diversity using ancestry probability surfaces

Evolutionary dynamics inform management interventions of a hanging garden obligate, Carex specuicola

Uncovering the historical and contemporary processes shaping rare species with complex distributions is of growing importance due to threats such as habitat destruction and climate change. Species restricted to specialized, patchy habitat may persist by virtue of life history characteristics facilitating ongoing gene flow and dispersal, but they could also reflect the remnants of formerly widespread, suitable habitat that existed during past climate regimes. If formerly widespread species did not rely upon traits facilitating high dispersibility to persist, contemporary populations could be at high risk of extirpation or extinction. Fortunately, genomic investigations provide an opportunity to illuminate such alternative scenarios while simultaneously offering guidance for future management interventions. Herein, we test the role of these mechanisms in shaping patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation across a highly restricted and rare ecosystem: desert hanging gardens. We focus on Carex specuicola (Cyperaceae), a hanging garden obligate narrowly distributed in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States that is listed as Threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act. Population structure and diversity analyses reveal that hanging garden populations are shaped by strong genetic drift, but that individuals in gardens are occasionally more closely related to individuals at other gardens than to individuals within the same garden. Similarly, gardens separated by long geographic distances may contain individuals that are more closely related compared to individuals in gardens separated by short geographic distances. Demographic modeling supports historical gene flow between some contemporary garden pairs, which is corroborated by low estimates of inbreeding coefficients and recent divergence times. As such, multiple lines of evidence support dispersal and gene flow across C. specuicola populations at both small and large spatial scales, indicating that even if C. specuicola was formerly more widespread, it may be well suited to persist in hanging gardens so long as suitable habitat remains available. Analyses like those demonstrated herein may be broadly applicable for understanding the short- and long-term evolutionary processes influencing rare species, and especially those having complex distributions across heterogeneous landscapes.