Predicting outcome in the seriously ill-A new approach

The Impact of Age on Predictive Performance of National Early Warning Score at Arrival to Emergency Departments: Development and External Validation

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To investigate how age affects the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at arrival to the emergency department (ED) regarding inhospital mortality and intensive care admission.

METHODS

International multicenter retrospective cohorts from 2 Danish and 3 Dutch ED. Development cohort: 14,809 Danish patients aged ≥18 years with at least systolic blood pressure or pulse measured from the Danish Multicenter Cohort. External validation cohort: 50,448 Dutch patients aged ≥18 years with all vital signs measured from the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). Multivariable logistic regression was used for model building. Performance was evaluated overall and within age categories: 18 to 64 years, 65 to 80 years, and more than 80 years.

RESULTS

In the Danish Multicenter Cohort, a total of 2.5% died inhospital, and 2.8% were admitted to the ICU, compared with 2.8% and 1.6%, respectively, in the NEED. Age did not add information for the prediction of intensive care admission but was the strongest predictor for inhospital mortality. For NEWS alone, severe underestimation of risk was observed for persons above 80 while overall Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) was 0.82 (confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.84) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.75 (CI 0.75 to 0.77) in the NEED. When combining NEWS with age, underestimation of risks was eliminated for persons above 80, and overall AUROC increased significantly to 0.86 (CI 0.85 to 0.88) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.82 (CI 0.81 to 0.83) in the NEED.

CONCLUSION

Combining NEWS with age improved the prediction performance regarding inhospital mortality, mostly for persons aged above 80, and can potentially improve decision policies at arrival to EDs.

Mobility Identifies Acutely Ill Patients at Low Risk of In-Hospital Mortality: A Prospective Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

A retrospective study has reported that impaired mobility on presentation (IMOP) enhanced the ability of vital signs to predict mortality in acutely ill patients. This study was designed to further examine the association between IMOP and in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

Prospective observational study of three different cohorts of acutely ill patients admitted to hospitals in Esbjerg, Denmark (998 patients), Basel, Switzerland (743 patients), and Kitovu, Uganda (1,622 patients).

RESULTS

There were significant differences in age, sex, length of stay, proportion of medical and surgical patients, and in-hospital mortality between the three cohorts. Yet in all three cohorts a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≥ 3 when first recorded and IMOP increased the risk of in-hospital mortality to approximately the same extent. IMOP and NEWS ≥ 3 when first recorded were, therefore, used for risk categorization: patients with a NEWS < 3 when first recorded and normal mobility on presentation had the lowest in-hospital mortality risk and those with NEWS ≥ 3 when first recorded and IMOP had the highest risk. The number of these low risk patients ranged from 26% in Kitovu to 42% in Esbjerg, and their in-hospital mortality rates did not significantly differ in all three cohorts, ranging from 0.2% in Esbjerg to 0.4% in Basel.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective multicenter study IMOP enhanced the risk categorization of acutely ill patients from very different clinical settings. The combination normal mobility on presentation and first recorded NEWS identified a substantial proportion of patients in all cohorts with a low risk of dying while in hospital.

TRIAL REGISTRY

The Esbjerg data were collected as part of a trial registered with the US National Library of Medicine (ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT03108807; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov).