Detecting green shoots of recovery: the importance of long-term individual-based monitoring of marine turtles

Climate-mediated population dynamics for the world's most endangered sea turtle species

Restricted range, and subsequently small population size, render Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii) the most globally endangered sea turtle species. For at least two decades preceding conservation, high egg harvest rates reduced annual cohort recruitment. Despite > 50 years of dedicated conservation, annual nest counts remain well below a landmark 1947 level. Prior studies attribute less robust than anticipated nest count rebound to multiple contemporary concerns; however, analyses herein convey optimistic interpretation. In objective 1, improved analysis of the ratio of hatchlings to nests since 1966 suggested age structure stabilization as a more likely basis for nest count trends after 2005 than density-dependent effects. In objective 2, multiple regression revealed a lagged (≤ 13 years prior) climate influence on nests (adj. r2 = 0.82) and hatchlings per nest (adj. r2 = 0.94) during 2006-2022. In objectives 3 and 4, a simulator modeled population response to changes in a suite of demographic rates including survival. Across 32 models, high survival and dynamic cohort sex ratio, sexual maturity age, and the ratio of clutch frequency to remigration interval best explained nesting trends during 1966-2022. These novel findings provide alternative perspective for evaluating species recovery criteria and in turn refine future nest trend expectations.

Long-term changes in body size of green turtles nesting on Trindade Island, Brazil: Signs of recovery?

Trindade Island is an important wildlife refuge in the South Atlantic Ocean and hosts the largest nesting population of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in Brazil, about which temporal ecological dynamics are still not well understood. The present study examines 23 years of nesting for green turtles at this remote island to evaluate annual mean nesting size (MNS) changes and post-maturity somatic growth rates. Our results show a significant decrease in annual MNS over the study; Whereas MNS during the first three consecutively monitored years (1993-1995) was 115.1 ± 5.4 cm, during the last three years (2014-2016) it was 111.2 ± 6.3 cm. There was no significant change in post-maturity somatic growth rate over the course of the study; the mean annual growth rate was 0.25 ± 0.62 cm/year. These findings suggest an increase in the relative proportion of smaller, presumptive neophyte nesters appearing in Trindade during the study period.

Changes in mean body size in an expanding population of a threatened species

With some taxa, a reduction in the mean size of individuals may reflect over-harvesting and/or trophy hunting. However, we show that in sea turtles, a reduction in the mean size of breeding individuals may be part of the good news story of an expanding population. We describe a 70-fold increase in annual nest numbers on the island of Sal (Cape Verde, North Atlantic) between 2008 and 2020 (from 506 to 35 507 nests), making this now one of the largest loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations in the world. We use 20 128 measurements of the size of nesting turtles to show that their mean annual size has decreased by about 2.4 cm, from 83.2 to 80.8 cm. This decrease in the mean size of nesting turtles was not caused by the removal of larger turtles, for example by selective harvesting. Rather we develop a theoretical model to show than this decrease in mean size can be explained by an influx of first-time nesters, combined with a decrease in the size of those first-time nesters over time. A reduction in mean size of nesting turtles has been reported across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and may be a common feature of population recoveries in sea turtles.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.

Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments

Population monitoring must be accurate and reliable to correctly classify population status. For sea turtles, nesting beach surveys are often the only population-level surveys that are accessible. However, process and observation errors, compounded by delayed maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the population. We present a simulation-based tool, monitoring strategy evaluation (MoSE), to test the relationships between monitoring data and assessment accuracy, using green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, as a case study. To explore this first application of MoSE, we apply different treatments of population impacts to virtual true populations, and sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation data can be used to diagnose population status accurately. Based on the observed data, we examine population trend and compare it to the known values from the operating model. We ran a series of scenarios including harvest impacts, cyclical breeding probability, and sampling biases, to see how these factors impact accuracy in estimating population trend. We explored the necessary duration of monitoring for accurate trend estimation and the probability of a false trend diagnosis. Our results suggest that disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring nesting beaches. The underlying population phase, age classes disturbed, and impact severity influenced the accuracy of estimating population trend. At least 10 yr of monitoring data is necessary to estimate population trend accurately, and >20 yr if juvenile age classes were disturbed and the population is recovering. In general, there is a greater probability of making a false positive trend diagnosis than a false negative, but this depends on impact type and severity, population phase, and sampling duration. Improving detection rates to 90% does little to lower probability of a false trend diagnosis with shorter monitoring spans. Altogether, monitoring strategies for specific populations may be tailored based on the impact history, population phase, and environmental drivers. The MoSE is an important framework for analysis through simulation that can comprehensively test population assessments for accuracy and inform policy recommendations regarding the best monitoring strategies.

Assessing climate change associated sea-level rise impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches using drones, photogrammetry and a novel GPS system

Climate change associated sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to have profound impacts on coastal areas, affecting many species, including sea turtles which depend on these habitats for egg incubation. Being able to accurately model beach topography using digital terrain models (DTMs) is therefore crucial to project SLR impacts and develop effective conservation strategies. Traditional survey methods are typically low-cost with low accuracy or high-cost with high accuracy. We present a novel combination of drone-based photogrammetry and a low-cost and portable real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS to create DTMs which are highly accurate (<10 cm error) and visually realistic. This methodology is ideal for surveying coastal sites, can be broadly applied to other species and habitats, and is a relevant tool in supporting the development of Specially Protected Areas. Here, we applied this method as a case-study to project three SLR scenarios (0.48, 0.63 and 1.20 m) and assess the future vulnerability and viability of a key nesting habitat for sympatric loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) at a key rookery in the Mediterranean. We combined the DTM with 5 years of nest survey data describing location and clutch depth, to identify (a) regions with highest nest densities, (b) nest elevation by species and beach, and (c) estimated proportion of nests inundated under each SLR scenario. On average, green turtles nested at higher elevations than loggerheads (1.8 m vs. 1.32 m, respectively). However, because green turtles dig deeper nests than loggerheads (0.76 m vs. 0.50 m, respectively), these were at similar risk of inundation. For a SLR of 1.2 m, we estimated a loss of 67.3% for loggerhead turtle nests and 59.1% for green turtle nests. Existing natural and artificial barriers may affect the ability of these nesting habitats to remain suitable for nesting through beach migration.

The effect of biologging systems on reproduction, growth and survival of adult sea turtles

BACKGROUND

Telemetry and biologging systems, 'tracking' hereafter, have been instrumental in meeting the challenges associated with studying the ecology and behaviour of cryptic, wide-ranging marine mega-vertebrates. Over recent decades, globally, sea turtle tracking has increased exponentially, across species and life-stages, despite a paucity of studies investigating the effects of such devices on study animals. Indeed, such studies are key to informing whether data collected are unbiased and, whether derived estimates can be considered typical of the population at large.

METHODS

Here, using a 26-year individual-based monitoring dataset on sympatric green (Chelonia mydas) and loggerhead (Caretta caretta) turtles, we provide the first analysis of the effects of device attachment on reproduction, growth and survival of nesting females.

RESULTS

We found no significant difference in growth and reproductive correlates between tracked and non-tracked females in the years following device attachment. Similarly, when comparing pre- and post-tracking data, we found no significant difference in the reproductive correlates of tracked females for either species or significant carry-over effects of device attachment on reproductive correlates in green turtles. The latter was not investigated for loggerhead turtles due to small sample size. Finally, we found no significant effects of device attachment on return rates or survival of tracked females for either species.

CONCLUSION

While there were no significant detrimental effects of device attachment on adult sea turtles in this region, our study highlights the need for other similar studies elsewhere and the value of long-term individual-based monitoring.

How numbers of nesting sea turtles can be overestimated by nearly a factor of two

Estimating the absolute number of individuals in populations and their fecundity is central to understanding the ecosystem role of species and their population dynamics as well as allowing informed conservation management for endangered species. Estimates of abundance and fecundity are often difficult to obtain for rare or cryptic species. Yet, in addition, here we show for a charismatic group, sea turtles, that are neither cryptic nor rare and whose nesting is easy to observe, that the traditional approach of direct observations of nesting has likely led to a gross overestimation of the number of individuals in populations and underestimation of their fecundity. We use high-resolution GPS satellite tags to track female green turtles throughout their nesting season in the Chagos Archipelago (Indian Ocean) and assess when and where they nested. For individual turtles, nest locations were often spread over several tens of kilometres of coastline. Assessed by satellite observations, a mean of 6.0 clutches (range 2-9, s.d. = 2.2) was laid by individuals, about twice as many as previously assumed, a finding also reported in other species and ocean basins. Taken together, these findings suggest that the actual number of nesting turtles may be almost 50% less than previously assumed.

A Review of Patterns of Multiple Paternity Across Sea Turtle Rookeries

Why females would mate with multiple partners and have multiple fathers for clutches or litters is a long-standing enigma. There is a broad dichotomy in hypotheses ranging from polyandry having benefits to simply being an unavoidable consequence of a high incidence of male-female encounters. If females simply give in to mating when it is too costly to avoid being harassed by males (convenience polyandry), then there should be a higher rate of mating as density increases. However, if females actively seek males because they benefit from multiple mating, then mating frequency, and consequently the incidence of multiple paternity of clutches, should be high throughout. To explore these competing explanations, here we review the incidence of multiple paternity for sea turtles nesting around the World. Across 30 rookeries, including all 7 species of sea turtle, the incidence of multiple paternity was only weakly linked to rookery size (r²=0.14). However, using high resolution at-sea GPS tracking we show that the specifics of movement patterns play a key role in driving packing density and hence the likely rate of male-female encounters. When individuals use the same focal areas, packing density could be 100× greater than when assuming individuals move independently. Once the extent of adult movements in the breeding season was considered so that movements and abundance could be combined to produce a measure of density, then across rookeries we found a very tight relationship (r²=0.96) between packing density and the incidence of multiple paternity. These findings suggest that multiple paternity in sea turtles may have no benefit, but is simply a consequence of the incidence of male-female encounters.

Placing Madagascar's marine turtle populations in a regional context using community-based monitoring

Madagascar is an important foraging ground for marine turtles in the Western Indian Ocean, yet the status of the country's nesting aggregations remains poorly documented. We assess the current status and trend in nesting throughout Madagascar, including data recorded by a community-based monitoring project in the Barren Isles (western Madagascar). We contextualize the findings in comparison with data from Madagascar's closest neighbouring states. Reports indicate that nesting levels have declined at many coastal sites, with no known recordings since 2000 at > 40 nesting sites. We estimate there are a minimum of 1,200 nests per year in Madagascar, with the largest recorded nesting aggregation (< 1,000 nests per year) found on islands off the west and northern coasts. The majority of nesting aggregations, including those recorded by the community-based monitoring project in the Barren Isles, are relatively small, in the order of < 50 nests per year, yet they are potentially important sources of regional genetic diversity. Nesting on many of the islands (e.g. Tromelin, Europa) around Madagascar has increased over the last 20 years, despite the fact that thousands of turtles probably originating from these sites are taken by fishers in the waters of Madagascar annually. We discuss the importance of protecting small nesting populations, and how community-based monitoring could be an important tool for conserving remote and vulnerable populations and building capacity for natural resource management.