High mortality and small population size prevent population recovery of a reintroduced mesopredator

Impacts of invasive cane toads on an Endangered marsupial predator and its prey

Recent research has revealed that impacts of some invasive species are chronic. Invasive cane toads Rhinella marina have apparently caused rapid and severe population-level declines of the Endangered northern quoll Dasyurus hallucatus across tropical Australia; however, more targeted, quantitative impact data are needed to disentangle this from other threats such as fire regimes, disease, feral cats and dingos. Moreover, repeatable counts before, during, after and long after toad invasion are needed in order to determine if short-term impacts are chronic vs. transitory. We used game cameras to monitor 2 quoll populations and their prey over a 5 yr period spanning the invasion of the toxic cane toads in 2 gorges in northwestern Australia. We predicted severe declines in quolls with the toad invasion, and predatory release of 2 prey species of quolls, a rodent and a smaller marsupial. Quolls declined quickly upon arrival of toads, becoming undetectable in one gorge and barely detectable in the other. Identification of individuals via unique spot patterns confirmed that the declines in detection rates were due to changes in relative abundance rather than decreases in activity. Despite quoll declines we found no evidence of mesopredator release; small mammals generally declined as toads arrived. Our research confirmed rapid population-level declines of quolls, and possibly smaller mammals, associated with arrival of invasive cane toads. Importantly, our surveys provide a baseline for future surveys to determine whether these short-term impacts are chronic or transitory, and whether recovery requires assistance from managers.

Terrestrial mesopredators did not increase after top-predator removal in a large-scale experimental test of mesopredator release theory

Removal or loss of top-predators has been predicted to cause cascading negative effects for ecosystems, including mesopredator release. However, reliable evidence for these processes in terrestrial systems has been mixed and equivocal due, in large part, to the systemic and continued use of low-inference study designs to investigate this issue. Even previous large-scale manipulative experiments of strong inferential value have been limited by experimental design features (i.e. failure to prevent migration between treatments) that constrain possible inferences about the presence or absence of mesopredator release effects. Here, we build on these previous strong-inference experiments and report the outcomes of additional large-scale manipulative experiments to eradicate Australian dingoes from two fenced areas where dingo migration was restricted and where theory would predict an increase in extant European red foxes, feral cats and goannas. We demonstrate the removal and suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels over 4–5 years with no corresponding increases in mesopredator relative abundances, which remained low and stable throughout the experiment at both sites. We further demonstrate widespread absence of negative relationships between predators, indicating that the mechanism underpinning predicted mesopredator releases was not present. Our results are consistent with all previous large-scale manipulative experiments and long-term mensurative studies which collectively demonstrate that (1) dingoes do not suppress red foxes, feral cats or goannas at the population level, (2) repeated, temporary suppression of dingoes in open systems does not create mesopredator release effects, and (3) removal and sustained suppression of dingoes to undetectable levels in closed systems does not create mesopredator release effects either. Our experiments add to similar reports from North America, Asia, Europe and southern Africa which indicate that not only is there a widespread absence of reliable evidence for these processes, but there is also a large and continually growing body of experimental evidence of absence for these processes in many terrestrial systems. We conclude that although sympatric predators may interact negatively with each other on smaller spatiotemporal scales, that these negative interactions do not always scale-up to the population level, nor are they always strong enough to create mesopredator suppression or release effects.

Effects of learning and adaptation on population viability

Cultural adaptation is one means by which conservationists may help populations adapt to threats. A learned behavior may protect an individual from a threat, and the behavior can be transmitted horizontally (within generations) and vertically (between generations), rapidly conferring population-level protection. Although possible in theory, it remains unclear whether such manipulations work in a conservation setting; what conditions are required for them to work; and how they might affect the evolutionary process. We examined models in which a population can adapt through both genetic and cultural mechanisms. Our work was motivated by the invasion of highly toxic cane toads (Rhinella marina) across northern Australia and the resultant declines of endangered northern quolls (Dasyurus hallucatus), which attack and are fatally poisoned by the toxic toads. We examined whether a novel management strategy in which wild quolls are trained to avoid toads can reduce extinction probability. We used a simulation model tailored to quoll life history. Within simulations, individuals were trained and a continuous evolving trait determined innate tendency to attack toads. We applied this model in a population viability setting. The strategy reduced extinction probability only when heritability of innate aversion was low (<20%) and when trained mothers trained >70% of their young to avoid toads. When these conditions were met, genetic adaptation was slower, but rapid cultural adaptation kept the population extant while genetic adaptation was completed. To gain insight into the evolutionary dynamics (in which we saw a transitory peak in cultural adaptation over time), we also developed a simple analytical model of evolutionary dynamics. This model showed that the strength of natural selection declined as the cultural transmission rate increased and that adaptation proceeded only when the rate of cultural transmission was below a critical value determined by the relative levels of protection conferred by genetic versus cultural mechanisms. Together, our models showed that cultural adaptation can play a powerful role in preventing extinction, but that rates of cultural transmission need to be high for this to occur.

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

Wild-born versus captive-bred: a comparison of survival and refuge selection by translocated numbats (Myrmecobius fasciatus)

Abstract ContextTo re-establish a population of the threatened numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus) in a newly created safe haven at Mount Gibson Wildlife Sanctuary, in the semi-arid zone of Western Australia, wild-born and captive-bred individuals of both sexes were translocated. AimTo compare: (1) the use of refuges by wild-born numbats pre- and post-translocation, and (2) the survival and refuge use of captive-bred numbats compared with wild-sourced numbats post-translocation. MethodsMonitoring via radio-tracking facilitated the gathering of information on survival and behaviour of numbats pre- and post-translocation, and allowed a comparison of how different factors (e.g. captive-bred or wild-born; male or female) influenced survival and establishment in a new environment. Key resultsThere were no significant differences in survival between sexes or between wild-born and captive-bred individuals. However, there were some differences in behaviour between sexes and source populations. Captive-bred numbats, regardless of sex, made greater use of tree hollows as nocturnal refuges than did their wild-born counterparts. Among wild-born numbats, there was a comparatively greater use of tree hollows and logs on the ground by males at Mount Gibson than at Scotia. The use of diurnal escape refuges did not vary between sexes or between captive-bred and wild-born individuals. ConclusionsOn the basis of the information presented here, we conclude that, in the absence of predation by mammalian predators, and with suitable release habitat, captive-bred-to-wild translocations of numbats may be as likely to succeed as are wild-to-wild translocations, at least over the first few months post-translocation. ImplicationsOptimising the size and genetic diversity of the founding population by using animals from a variety of sources may not need to be heavily constrained by concerns about the ability of captive-bred numbats to adapt to and survive life in the wild.

Demography and spatial requirements of the endangered northern quoll on Groote Eylandt

Abstract ContextAustralia has experienced the highest number of mammal extinctions of any continent over the past two centuries. Understanding the demography and spatial requirements of populations before declines occur is fundamental to confirm species trajectory, elucidate causes of decline and develop effective management strategies. AimsWe evaluated the demography and spatial requirements of a northern quoll, Dasyurus hallucatus, population on Groote Eylandt, Northern Territory. Groote Eylandt is considered a refuge for the species because key threatening processes are absent or limited; cane toads and introduced ungulates are absent, feral cats are infrequently detected and the fire regime is benign compared with mainland Northern Territory. MethodsWe conducted a 4-year capture–mark–recapture study to monitor growth, reproduction and survival of northern quolls within a 128-ha area, and we evaluated spatial requirements by attaching GPS units to both sexes. To assess the status of the Groote Eylandt population, we compared the demographics with existing data from mainland populations. Key resultsThe average density of northern quolls was 0.33ha−1. However, there was a 58% decline in female density, primarily between 2012 and 2013, corresponding with a decrease in female body mass. Females survived and bred in up to 3 years and adult survival rates did not vary among years, suggesting that juvenile recruitment drives population fluctuations. Male quolls were semelparous, with die-off occurring in the months following breeding. The median female and male home ranges were 15.7ha and 128.6ha respectively, and male ranges increased significantly during breeding, with 1616ha being the largest recorded. ConclusionsThe northern quoll population on Groote Eylandt had a higher density, female survival and reproductive success than has been previously recorded on the mainland. However, a marked decline was recorded corresponding with a decrease in female mass, indicating below-average rainfall as the likely cause. ImplicationsGroote Eylandt remains a refuge for the endangered northern quoll. However, even in the absence of key threatening processes, the population has declined markedly, highlighting the impact of environmental fluctuations. Maintaining the ecological integrity of Groote Eylandt is imperative for population recovery, and managing threats on the mainland over appropriate spatial scales is necessary to increase population resilience.