Spatio-temporal shifts in British wild bees in response to changing climate

Climate plays a major role in determining where species occur, and when they are active throughout the year. In the face of a changing climate, many species are shifting their ranges poleward. Many species are also shifting their emergence phenology. Wild bees in Great Britain are susceptible to changes in climatic conditions but little is known about historic or potential future spatio-temporal trends of many species. This study utilized a sliding window approach to assess the impacts of climate on bee emergence dates, estimating the best temperature window for predicting emergence dates for 88 species of wild bees. Using a 'middle-of-the-road' (RCP 4.5) and 'worst-case' (RCP 8.5) climate scenario for the period 2070-2079, predictions of future emergence dates were made. In general, the best predicting climate window occurred in the 0-3 months preceding emergence. Across the 40 species that showed a shift in emergence dates in response to a climate window, the mean advance was 13.4 days under RCP 4.5 and 24.9 days under RCP 8.5. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to predict suitable climate envelopes under historic (1980-1989), current (2010-2019) and future (2070-2079 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) climate conditions. These models predict that the climate envelope for 92% of studied species has increased since the 1980s, and for 97% and 93% of species under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively, this is predicted to continue, due to extension of the northern range boundary. While any range changes will be moderated by habitat availability, it highlights that Great Britain will likely experience northward shifts of bee populations in the future. By combining spatial and temporal trends, this work provides an important step towards informing conservation measures suitable for future climates, directing how interventions can be provided in the right place at the right time.

The establishment of ecological conservation for herpetofauna species in hotspot areas of South Korea

Understanding the geographic distribution of species is crucial for establishing protected areas. This study aimed to identify the preferred habitat environment of South Korean herpetofauna using distribution point information, providing the information necessary to protect their habitat by establishing a species distribution model. We found that climate variables in the region where 19 amphibians and 20 reptiles were distributed correlated with the altitude, suggesting that altitude had a major influence on their distribution. The species distribution modeling indicated that 10–12 amphibian and 13–16 reptile species inhabit the Gangwon-do region, forming hotspot areas in the eastern and western regions around the Taebaek Mountains. Some of these hotspot areas occurred in the Demilitarized Zone and national parks, which are government-managed ecological conservation areas. However, some hotspot areas are vulnerable to habitat destruction due to development and deforestation as they are not designated conservation areas. Therefore, it is necessary to establish new conservation areas with a focus on herpetofauna after confirming the actual inhabitation of species through precise monitoring in predicted hotspot areas and designating them as protected areas. Our results can serve as important basic data for establishing protection measures and designating protected areas for herpetofauna species.

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rare and endangered tree Firmiana kwangsiensis using the Maxent modeling

The upsurge in anthropogenic climate change has accelerated the habitat loss and fragmentation of wild animals and plants. The rare and endangered plants are important biodiversity elements. However, the lack of comprehensive and reliable information on the spatial distribution of these organisms has hampered holistic and efficient conservation management measures. We explored the consequences of climate change on the geographical distribution of Firmiana kwangsiensis (Malvaceae), an endangered species, to provide a reference for conservation, introduction, and cultivation of this species in new ecological zones. Modeling of the potential distribution of F. kwangsiensis under the current and two future climate scenarios in maximum entropy was performed based on 30 occurrence records and 27 environmental variables of the plant. We found that precipitation‐associated and temperature‐associated variables limited the potentially suitable habitats for F. kwangsiensis. Our model predicted 259,504 km² of F. kwangsiensis habitat based on 25 percentile thresholds. However, the high suitable habitat for F. kwangsiensis is only about 41,027 km². F. kwangsiensis is most distributed in Guangxi's protected areas. However, the existing reserves are only 2.7% of the total suitable habitat and 4.2% of the high suitable habitat for the plant, lower than the average protection area in Guangxi (7.2%). This means the current protected areas network is insufficient, underlining the need for alternative conservation mechanisms to protect the plant habitat. Our findings will help identify additional F. kwangsiensis localities and potential habitats and inform the development and implementation of conservation, management, and cultivation practices of such rare tree species.