Combining population genetics, species distribution modelling and field assessments to understand a species vulnerability to climate change

Patterns of Genetic Diversity and Gene Flow Associated With an Aridity Gradient in Populations of Common Mole-rats, Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus

Genetic adaptation is the change of a population toward a phenotype that best fits the present ecological conditions of the environment it inhabits. As environmental conditions change, allele frequencies shift, resulting in different populations of the same species possessing genetic variation and divergent phenotypes. Cooperatively breeding common mole-rats (Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus) inhabit environments along an aridity gradient in South Africa, which provides an opportunity for local genetic adaptations to occur. Using one mitochondrial gene (cytochrome b) and 3,540 SNP loci across the whole genome, we determined the phylogenetic relationship, population structure and genetic diversity of five populations of C. h. hottentotus located along an aridity gradient. Mitochondrial data identified population-specific clades that were less distinct in the two mesic populations, potentially indicating historical or recent gene flow, or the retention of ancestral haplotypes. Arid and semi-arid populations formed a distinct cluster from the non-arid populations. Genetic diversity and gene flow were higher in arid-dwelling individuals, suggesting greater connectivity and interactions between colonies in arid regions in comparison to mesic ones. Using an Aridity Index, we determined that isolation by environment, rather than isolation by geographical distance, best explains the genetic distance between the populations. Further analyses using target loci may determine if there are differing underlying genetic adaptations among populations of C. h. hottentotus. These analyses could help unravel population differences in response to environmental factors within a subspecies of bathyergid mole-rat and determine the adaptive capacity of this small nonmigratory subterranean rodent species in response to aridification in the face of climate change.

Past, current, and potential future distributions of unique genetic diversity in a cold-adapted mountain butterfly

AIM

Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change.

LOCATION

Europe.

TAXON

Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae.

METHODS

We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity.

RESULTS

We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, H d = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long-term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (H d = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (<1,000 meters above sea level) equating to 1 to 12 unique haplotypes being at risk under climate scenarios projecting 1°C and 2-3°C increases respectfully in global temperature by 2070.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that historical range expansion and retraction processes by a cold-adapted mountain species caused diversification between populations, resulting in unique genetic diversity which may be at risk if distributions of cold-adapted species shrink in future. Assisted colonizations of individuals from at-risk populations into climatically suitable unoccupied habitat might help conserve unique genetic diversity, and translocations into remaining populations might increase their genetic diversity and hence their ability to adapt to future climate change.

Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change

Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.

Functional acclimation across microgeographic scales in Dodonaea viscosa

Intraspecific plant functional trait variation provides mechanistic insight into persistence and can infer population adaptive capacity. However, most studies explore intraspecific trait variation in systems where geographic and environmental distances co-vary. Such a design reduces the certainty of trait-environment associations, and it is imperative for studies that make trait-environment associations be conducted in systems where environmental distance varies independently of geographic distance. Here we explored trait variation in such a system, and aimed to: (i) quantify trait variation of parent and offspring generations, and associate this variation to parental environments; (ii) determine the traits which best explain population differences; (iii) compare parent and offspring trait-trait relationships. We characterized 15 plant functional traits in eight populations of a shrub with a maximum separation ca. 100 km. Populations differed markedly in aridity and elevation, and environmental distance varied independently of geographic distance. We measured traits in parent populations collected in the field, as well as their offspring reared in greenhouse conditions. Parent traits regularly associated with their environment. These associations were largely lost in the offspring generation, indicating considerable phenotypic plasticity. An ordination of parent traits showed clear structure with strong influence of leaf area, specific leaf area, stomatal traits, isotope δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N ratios, and N_area, whereas the offspring ordination was less structured. Parent trait-trait correlations were in line with expectations from the leaf economic spectrum. We show considerable trait plasticity in the woody shrub over microgeographic scales (<100 km), indicating it has the adaptive potential within a generation to functionally acclimate to a range of abiotic conditions. Since our study shrub is commonly used for restoration in southern Australia and local populations do not show strong genetic differentiation in functional traits, the potential risks of transferring seed across the broad environmental conditions are not likely to be a significant issue.

Targeted capture to assess neutral genomic variation in the narrow-leaf hopbush across a continental biodiversity refugium

The Adelaide geosyncline, a mountainous region in central southern Australia, is purported to be an important continental refugium for Mediterranean and semi-arid Australian biota, yet few population genetic studies have been conducted to test this theory. Here, we focus on a plant species distributed widely throughout the region, the narrow-leaf hopbush, Dodonaea viscosa ssp. angustissima, and examine its genetic diversity and population structure. We used a hybrid-capture target enrichment technique to selectively sequence over 700 genes from 89 individuals across 17 sampling locations. We compared 815 single nucleotide polymorphisms among individuals and populations to investigate population genetic structure. Three distinct genetic clusters were identified; a Flinders/Gammon ranges cluster, an Eastern cluster, and a Kangaroo Island cluster. Higher genetic diversity was identified in the Flinders/Gammon Ranges cluster, indicating that this area is likely to have acted as a refugium during past climate oscillations. We discuss these findings and consider the historical range dynamics of these populations. We also provide methodological considerations for population genomics studies that aim to use novel genomic approaches (such as target capture methods) on non-model systems. The application of our findings to restoration of this species across the region are also considered.

Landscape-scale deforestation decreases gene flow distance of a keystone tropical palm, Euterpe edulis Mart (Arecaceae)

Habitat loss represents one of the main threats to tropical forests, which have reached extremely high rates of species extinction. Forest loss negatively impacts biodiversity, affecting ecological (e.g., seed dispersal) and genetic (e.g., genetic diversity and structure) processes. Therefore, understanding how deforestation influences genetic resources is strategic for conservation. Our aim was to empirically evaluate the effects of landscape‐scale forest reduction on the spatial genetic structure and gene flow of Euterpe edulis Mart (Arecaceae), a palm tree considered a keystone resource for many vertebrate species. This study was carried out in nine forest remnants in the Atlantic Forest, northeastern Brazil, located in landscapes within a gradient of forest cover (19–83%). We collected leaves of 246 adults and 271 seedlings and performed genotyping using microsatellite markers. Our results showed that the palm populations had low spatial genetic structure, indicating that forest reduction did not influence this genetic parameter for neither seedlings nor adults. However, forest loss decreased the gene flow distance, which may negatively affect the genetic diversity of future generations by increasing the risk of local extinction of this keystone palm. For efficient strategies of genetic variability conservation and maintenance of gene flow in E. edulis, we recommend the maintenance of landscapes with intermediary to high levels of forest cover, that is, forest cover above 40%.

Identifying Centres of Plant Biodiversity in South Australia

We aimed to identify regional centres of plant biodiversity in South Australia, a sub-continental land area of 983,482 km², by mapping a suite of metrics. Broad-brush conservation issues associated with the centres were mapped, specifically climate sensitivity, exposure to habitat fragmentation, introduced species and altered fire regimes. We compiled 727,417 plant species records from plot-based field surveys and herbarium records and mapped the following: species richness (all species; South Australian endemics; conservation-dependent species; introduced species); georeferenced weighted endemism, phylogenetic diversity, georeferenced phylogenetic endemism; and measures of beta diversity at local and state-wide scales. Associated conservation issues mapped were: climate sensitivity measured via ordination and non-linear modelling; habitat fragmentation represented by the proportion of remnant vegetation within a moving window; fire prone landscapes assessed using fire history records; invasive species assessed through diversity metrics, species distribution and literature. Compared to plots, herbarium data had higher spatial and taxonomic coverage but records were more biased towards major transport corridors. Beta diversity was influenced by sampling intensity and scale of comparison. We identified six centres of high plant biodiversity for South Australia: Western Kangaroo Island; Southern Mount Lofty Ranges; Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara lands; Southern Flinders Ranges; Southern Eyre Peninsula; Lower South East. Species composition in the arid-mediterranean ecotone was the most climate sensitive. Fragmentation mapping highlighted the dichotomy between extensive land-use and high remnancy in the north and intensive land-use and low remnancy in the south. Invasive species were most species rich in agricultural areas close to population centres. Fire mapping revealed large variation in frequency across the state. Biodiversity scores were not always congruent between metrics or datasets, notably for categorical endemism to South Australia versus georeferenced weighted endemism, justifying diverse approaches and cautious interpretation. The study could be extended to high resolution assessments of biodiversity centres and cost:benefit analysis for interventions.