The effects of mice on stoats in southern beech forests

Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates

Understanding the determinants of the range expansion of invasive alien species is crucial for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Nevertheless, we still lack a global picture of the potential factors influencing the invaded range expansion across taxonomic groups, especially for the world's worst invaders with high ecological and economic impacts. Here, by extensively collecting data on 363 distributional ranges of 19 of world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates across 135 invaded administrative jurisdictions, we observed remarkable variations in the range expansion across species and taxonomic groups. After controlling for taxonomic and geographic pseudoreplicates, model averaging analyses based on generalized additive mixed-effect models showed that species in invaded regions having climates more similar to those of their native ranges tended to undergo a larger range expansion. In addition, as proxies of propagule pressure and human-assisted transportation, the number of introduction events and the road network density were also important predictors facilitating the range expansion. Further variance partitioning analyses validated the predominant role of climate match in explaining the range expansion. Our study demonstrated that regions with similar climates to their native ranges could still be prioritized to prevent the spread of invasive species under the sustained global change.

Niche partitioning in a guild of invasive mammalian predators

Predators compete aggressively for resources, establishing trophic hierarchies that influence ecosystem structure. Competitive interactions are particularly important in invaded ecosystems where introduced predators can suppress native prey species. We investigated whether niche partitioning exists within a guild of invasive mammalian predators and determined the consequences for native species. Over 4405 camera-trap days, we assessed interactions among three invasive predators: two apex predators (feral cats Felis catus and ferrets Mustela furo) and a mesopredator (stoats Mustela erminea), in relation to their primary prey (lagomorphs, rodents and birds) and habitat use. Further, we tested for mesopredator release by selectively removing cats and ferrets in a pulse perturbation experiment. We found compelling evidence of niche partitioning; spatiotemporal activity of apex predators maximized access to abundant invasive prey, with ferrets targeting lagomorphs and cats targeting rodents. Mesopredators adjusted their behavior to reduce the risk of interference competition, thereby restricting access to abundant prey but increasing predation pressure on diurnal native birds. Stoats were only recorded at the treatment site after both larger predators were removed, becoming the most frequently detected predator at 6 months post-perturbation. We suggest there is spatial and resource partitioning within the invasive predator guild, but that this is incomplete, and avoidance is achieved by temporal partitioning within overlapping areas. Niche partitioning among invasive predators facilitates coexistence, but simultaneously intensifies predation pressure on vulnerable native species.

Invasive species and thermal squeeze: distribution of two invasive predators and drivers of ship rat (Rattus rattus) invasion in mid-elevation Fuscospora forest

Global climate change could alter the range, abundance, and interactions of species, potentially favouring invasive species and harming endemics. Ship rats (Rattus rattus) are one of the world's worst invasive predators but are typically absent from Aotearoa New Zealand's native Fuscospora cliffortioides (mountain beech) forest above 1000 m. Stoats (Mustela erminea) are another damaging invasive predator in Aotearoa New Zealand and prey on ship rats. We analyse community trapping records 2007–2020 to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of ship rats and their key predator stoats at Craigieburn Forest Park. We document an invasion of ship rats after 2010 at Craigieburn and hypothesised two drivers of the increase in rat abundance: (1) more frequent mountain beech high-seed years providing more food for rats; and (2) warming winter temperatures allowing rats to invade areas that were previously too cold. We were unable to test a third possible driver (stoat trapping resulting in top-down meso-predator release) due to the nature of the data available. Rats were more common at low altitudes near streams, and stoats were more common at higher-altitudes on forest edges. Average winter temperature, but not seedfall, increased significantly at Craigieburn mid-elevations since 1972. The best predictor of annual rat catch was higher average winter temperatures interacting with high seedfall. This shows a key interaction between two global change drivers: warming temperatures have allowed exotic ship rats to expand into areas where they were previously absent, increasing the resultant "thermal squeeze" of predation on sensitive endemic birds at higher-altitude sites.

Using a Modeling Approach to Inform Progress Towards Stoat Eradication From the Orkney Islands

Invasive non-native species eradication attempts are typically large and expensive projects that benefit from the support of quantitative tools, such as population models, to be completed within the scheduled and funded time. Managed ecosystems are constantly changing due to population and ecosystem dynamics. Accordingly, any model predictions need to be updated, using different sources of data, to inform the project about the progress toward eradication. The stoat Mustela erminea was introduced to the hitherto predatory land mammal free Orkney archipelago around 2010. In 2016, a project aiming to eradicate stoats to preserve ecologically and economically important native wildlife was designed and implemented. It entailed a “knockdown” phase followed by a “mopping-up” phase to remove stoats that escaped capture. We used data from this project to iteratively predict the progress toward eradication. We applied spatially explicit individual-based models to estimate the proportion of stoats being exposed to capture, and then compared these simulation-based predictions with removal data, allowing us to estimate changes in the population size through time. We also used sighting data from members of the public to refine eradication probability. We were also able to demonstrate how the initially wide uncertainty gradually diminished as more evidence accumulated. The information derived from different types of data and quantitative models allowed us to track the effectiveness of current trapping approaches and to help to inform project managers about when the project achieved the knockdown phase milestone. Our analyses confirmed that the expected magnitude of the initial knockdown phase has been achieved in some areas, but also revealed spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the distribution of captures, most likely caused by the sequential trapping and stoat movement and trap shy stoats exposed to capture but not caught. This heterogeneity calls for additional data sources (e.g., from camera traps or detection dogs) to estimate the proportion of trap-shy individuals and the size of the untrapped population, and ultimately the feasibility of eradication.

Of Mice, Cattle, and Men: A Review of the Eco-Epidemiology of Leptospira borgpetersenii Serovar Ballum

In New Zealand (NZ), leptospirosis is a mostly occupational zoonosis, with >66% of the recently notified cases being farm or abattoir workers. Livestock species independently maintain Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Hardjo and L. interrogans serovar Pomona, and both are included in livestock vaccines. The increasing importance in human cases of Ballum, a serovar associated with wildlife, suggests that wildlife may be an overlooked source of infection. Livestock could also act as bridge hosts for humans. Drawing from disease ecology frameworks, we chose five barriers to include in this review based on the hypothesis that cattle act as bridge hosts for Ballum. Using a narrative methodology, we collated published studies pertaining to (a) the distribution and abundance of potential wild maintenance hosts of Ballum, (b) the infection dynamics (prevalence and pathogenesis) in those same hosts, (c) Ballum shedding and survival in the environment, (d) the exposure and competency of cattle as a potential bridge host, and (e) exposure for humans as a target host of Ballum. Mice (Mus musculus), rats (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus) and hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were suspected as maintenance hosts of Ballum in NZ in studies conducted in the 1970s–1980s. These introduced species are distributed throughout NZ, and are present on pastures. The role of other wildlife in Ballum (and more broadly Leptospira) transmission remains poorly defined, and has not been thoroughly investigated in NZ. The experimental and natural Ballum infection of cattle suggest a low pathogenicity and the possibility of shedding. The seroprevalence in cattle appears higher in recent serosurveys (3 to 14%) compared with studies from the 1970s (0 to 3%). This review identifies gaps in the knowledge of Ballum, and highlights cattle as a potential spillover host. Further studies are required to ascertain the role that wild and domestic species may play in the eco-epidemiology of Ballum in order to understand its survival in the environment, and to inform control strategies.

Inferential and forward projection modeling to evaluate options for controlling invasive mammals on islands

Successful pest-mammal eradications from remote islands have resulted in important biodiversity benefits. Near-shore islands can also serve as refuges for native biota but require ongoing effort to maintain low-pest or pest-free status. Three management options are available in the presence of reinvasion risk: (1) control-to-zero density, in which immigration may occur but reinvaders are removed; (2) sustained population suppression (to relatively low numbers); or (3) no action. Biodiversity benefits can result from options one and two. The management challenge is to make evidence-based decisions on the selection of an appropriate objective and to identify a financially feasible control strategy that has a high probability of success. This requires understanding the pest species population dynamics and how it will respond to a range of potential management strategies, each with an associated financial cost. We developed a two-stage modeling approach that consisted of (1) Bayesian inferential modeling to estimate parameters for a model of pest population dynamics and control, and (2) a forward projection model to simulate a range of plausible management scenarios and quantify the probability of obtaining zero density within four years. We applied the model to an ongoing, six-year trapping program to control stoats (Mustela erminea) on Resolution Island, New Zealand. Zero density has not yet been achieved. Results demonstrate that management objectives were impeded by a combination of a highly fecund population, insufficient trap attractiveness, and a substantial proportion of the population that did not enter traps. Immigration is known to occur because the founding population arrived on the island by swimming from the mainland. However, immigration rate during this study was indistinguishable from zero. The forward projection modeling showed that control-to-zero density was feasible but required greater than a two-fold budget increase to intensify the trapping rate relative to population growth. The two-stage modeling provides the foundation for a management program in which broad-scale trials of additional trapping effort or improved trap lures would test model predictions and increase our understanding of system dynamics.