Modeling the extinction risk of European butterflies and odonates

Insect populations have become increasingly threatened during the last decades due to climate change and landuse intensification. Species characteristics driving these threats remain poorly understood. Trait-based analyses provide a straight-forward approach to gain a mechanistic understanding of species' extinction risk, guiding the development of conservation strategies. We combined morphological traits and phylogenetic relationship for 332 European species of butterflies and 115 species of odonates (dragon and damselflies) to model their red list status via phylogenetically controlled ordered logistic regression. We hypothesized that extinction risk increases with increasing body volume and wing area, decreasing range size, and is larger for brighter species. All investigated traits exhibited a strong phylogenetic signal. When controlling for phylogenetic relationship, we found that extinction risk of butterflies increased with decreasing range size. The extinction risk of odonates showed no relationship with the selected traits. Our results show that there is no universal trait defining the extinction risk of our investigated insect taxa. Furthermore, evolutionary history, measured as the phylogenetically predicted part of our analyzed traits, poorly predicted extinction risk. Our study confirms the focus of conservation measures on European butterfly species with small range sizes.

Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates

Biodiversity is heavily influenced by ongoing climate change, which often results in species undergoing range shifts, either poleward or uphill. Range shifts can occur provided suitable habitats exist within reach. However, poleward latitudinal shifts might be limited by additional abiotic or biotic constraints, such as increased seasonality, photoperiod patterns, and species interactions. To gain insight into the dynamics of insect range shifts at high latitudes, we constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) for 57 Odonata species occurring in northern Europe. We used citizen science data from Sweden and present-day climatic variables covering a latitudinal range of 1,575 km. Then, to measure changes in range and interactions among Odonata species, we projected the ENMs up to the year 2080. We also estimated potential changes in species interactions using niche overlap and co-occurrence patterns. We found that most Odonata species are predicted to expand their range northward. The average latitudinal shift is expected to reach 1.83 and 3.25 km y-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by 2061-2080. While the most warm-dwelling species may increase their range, our results indicate that cold-dwelling species will experience range contractions. The present-day niche overlap patterns among species will remain largely the same in the future. However, our results predict changes in co-occurrence patterns, with many species pairs showing increased co-occurrence, while others will no longer co-occur because of the range contractions. In sum, our ENM results suggest that species assemblages of Odonata-and perhaps insects in general-in northern latitudes will experience great compositional changes.

Odonate Diversity Patterns in Italy Disclose Intricate Colonization Pathways

As a natural bridge between Europe and Africa, Italy occupies a prominent position to understand the biogeography of Europe. The influence of climatic, spatial, and historical factors on current patterns of species richness and turnover (i.e., inter-regional biogeographical differences) has been analyzed for 88 species occurring in 17 Italian natural regions. Use of multimodel inference showed that odonate richness decreased southwards in response to decreasing rainfall, as expected for animals that depend on freshwater for their development. Use of Mantel tests indicated that patterns of inter-regional similarities were influenced by both climate and geographical distances. These patterns, as highlighted using Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling, indicate a role for historical factors. Biogeographical similarities between Italian regions and adjacent areas revealed multiple colonization pathways. These results, coupled with the overall southward decrease in species richness, suggest that, after serving as a Pleistocene refuge from which odonates may have colonized medio-European areas, Italy was in turn subject to colonization from north to south. This resulted in Italian odonate fauna being less species rich compared to faunas in the medio-European territories, but also being biogeographically very complex.

If you build it, they will come: rapid colonization by dragonflies in a new effluent-dependent river reach

Background

Aquatic ecosystems are greatly altered by urban development, including the complete loss of natural habitat due to water diversions or channel burial. However, novel freshwater habitats also are created in cities, such as effluent-dependent streams that rely on treated wastewater for flow. It is unclear how diverse these novel ecosystems are, or how quickly aquatic species are able to colonize them. In this study, we (1) quantify odonate (Insecta, Odonata) colonization of a novel effluent-dependent river reach, (2) examine how drying events affect odonates in these novel habitats, and (3) explore whether effluent-dependent streams can support diverse odonate assemblages.

Methods

We conducted monthly odonate surveys at three sites along the Santa Cruz River (Tucson, AZ, USA) between June 2019 and May 2020. One site was in a long-established effluent-dependent reach (flowing since the 1970s) that served as a reference site and two sites were in a newly-established reach that began flowing on June 24, 2019 (it was previously dry). We compared odonate species richness, assemblage composition, and colonization patterns across these reaches, and examined how these factors responded to flow cessation events in the new reach.

Results

Seven odonate species were observed at the study sites in the new reach within hours of flow initiation, and species rapidly continued to arrive thereafter. Within 3 months, species richness and assemblage composition of adult odonates were indistinguishable in the new and reference reaches. However, drying events resulted in short-term and chronic reductions in species richness at one of the sites. Across all three sites, we found over 50 odonate species, which represent nearly 40% of species known from the state of Arizona.

Discussion

Odonates were surprisingly diverse in the effluent-dependent Santa Cruz River and rapidly colonized a newly established reach. Richness levels remained high at study sites that did not experience drying events. These results suggest that consistent discharge of high-quality effluent into dry streambeds can be an important tool for promoting urban biodiversity. However, it remains to be seen how quickly and effectively less vagile taxa (e.g., mayflies, caddisflies) can colonize novel reaches. Effluent-dependent urban streams will always be highly managed systems, but collaboration between ecologists and urban planners could help to maximize aquatic biodiversity while still achieving goals of public safety and urban development.

Odonate species occupancy frequency distribution and abundance-occupancy relationship patterns in temporal and permanent water bodies in a subtropical area

This paper investigates species richness and species occupancy frequency distributions (SOFD) as well as patterns of abundance-occupancy relationship (SAOR) in Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) in a subtropical area. A total of 82 species and 1983 individuals were noted from 73 permanent and temporal water bodies (lakes and ponds) in the Pampa biome in southern Brazil. Odonate species occupancy ranged from 1 to 54. There were few widely distributed generalist species and several specialist species with a restricted distribution. About 70% of the species occurred in <10% of the water bodies, yielding a surprisingly high number of rare species, often making up the majority of the communities. No difference in species richness was found between temporal and permanent water bodies. Both temporal and permanent water bodies had odonate assemblages that fitted best with the unimodal satellite SOFD pattern. It seems that unimodal satellite SOFD pattern frequently occurred in the aquatic habitats. The SAOR pattern was positive and did not differ between permanent and temporal water bodies. Our results are consistent with a niche-based model rather than a metapopulation dynamic model.