Modeling graft loss in patients with donor-specific antibody at baseline using the Birmingham-Mayo (BirMay) predictor: Implications for clinical trials

IFTA Foci Density: An Unrecognized Highly Prognostic Measurement of Fibrosis in Kidney Transplant Biopsies

Key Points

Background

Contraction of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) may cause %IFTA to under-represent the severity of nephron loss. Higher density of IFTA foci is an important predictor of progressive CKD in native kidneys independent of %IFTA.

Methods

We studied kidney transplant recipients transplanted between 2000 and 2013 who had a 5-year surveillance kidney biopsy and subsequent follow-up. Banff ci score (interstitial fibrosis) was obtained from the pathology reports. After digitizing the biopsies, we traced cortex area and each distinct IFTA focus on a single trichrome-stained section. Percent IFTA area and IFTA foci density (count of IFTA foci/cortex area) were calculated. Cox models assessed the risk of death-censored graft failure after the 5-year biopsy with Banff ci score, morphometric %IFTA, and IFTA foci density.

Results

There were 58 death-censored allograft failures among 835 kidney recipients during the 5 years of follow-up. Biopsies from grafts that failed had higher mean Banff ci score (1.5 versus 0.7, P < 0.0001), %IFTA (22.6% versus 7.0%, P < 0.0001), and IFTA foci density (1.3/mm2 versus 0.4/mm2, P < 0.0001). After adjusting for other Banff scores or clinical variables, Banff ci did not correlate with allograft failure, but both higher %IFTA (hazard ratio = 1.56, P < 0.0001) and higher IFTA foci density (hazard ratio = 2.34, P < 0.0001) did. All but four allograft failures by 10 years had biopsies in the top quartile of either %IFTA or IFTA foci density at 5 years. A model using just these two morphometric measures without clinical characteristics resulted in a c-statistic of 0.891 with respect to allograft failure.

Conclusions

Morphometric characterization of IFTA foci density is a strong predictor of death-censored allograft failure not captured in current Banff classification for grading of kidney fibrosis.

Longitudinal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) modeling in long-term renal function to inform clinical trial design in kidney transplantation

Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for individuals with end-stage kidney disease. From a modeling perspective, our understanding of kidney function trajectories after transplantation remains limited. Current modeling of kidney function post-transplantation is focused on linear slopes or percent decline and often excludes the highly variable early timepoints post-transplantation, where kidney function recovers and then stabilizes. Using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a well-known biomarker of kidney function, from an aggregated dataset of 4904 kidney transplant patients including both observational studies and clinical trials, we developed a longitudinal model of kidney function trajectories from time of transplant to 6 years post-transplant. Our model is a nonlinear, mixed-effects model built in NONMEM that captured both the recovery phase after kidney transplantation, where the graft recovers function, and the long-term phase of stabilization and slow decline. Model fit was assessed using diagnostic plots and individual fits. Model performance, assessed via visual predictive checks, suggests accurate model predictions of eGFR at the median and lower 95% quantiles of eGFR, ranges which are of critical clinical importance for assessing loss of kidney function. Various clinically relevant covariates were also explored and found to improve the model. For example, transplant recipients of deceased donors recover function more slowly after transplantation and calcineurin inhibitor use promotes faster long-term decay. Our work provides a generalizable, nonlinear model of kidney allograft function that will be useful for estimating eGFR up to 6 years post-transplant in various clinically relevant populations.

Progressive decline of function in renal allografts with normal 1-year biopsies: Gene expression studies fail to identify a classifier

Histologic findings on 1-year biopsies such as inflammation with fibrosis and transplant glomerulopathy predict renal allograft loss by 5 years. However, almost half of the patients with graft loss have a 1-year biopsy that is either normal or has only interstitial fibrosis. The goal of this study was to determine if there was a gene expression profile in these relatively normal 1-year biopsies that predicted subsequent decline in renal function. Using transcriptome microarrays we measured intragraft mRNA levels in a retrospective Discovery cohort (170 patients with a normal/minimal fibrosis 1-year biopsy, 54 with progressive decline in function/graft loss and 116 with stable function) and developed a nested 10-fold cross-validated gene classifier that predicted progressive decline in renal function (positive predictive value = 38 ± 34%%; negative predictive value = 73 ± 30%, c-statistic = .59). In a prospective, multicenter Validation cohort (270 patients with Normal/Interstitial Fibrosis [IF]), the classifier had a 20% positive predictive value, 85% negative predictive value and .58 c-statistic. Importantly, the majority of patients with graft loss in the prospective study had 1-year biopsies scored as Normal or IF. We conclude predicting graft loss in many renal allograft recipients (i.e., those with a relatively normal 1-year biopsy and eGFR > 40) remains difficult.