Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

Explainable machine learning on baseline MRI predicts multiple sclerosis trajectory descriptors

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifaceted neurological condition characterized by challenges in timely diagnosis and personalized patient management. The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to MS holds promises for early detection, accurate diagnosis, and predictive modeling. The objectives of this study are: 1) to propose new MS trajectory descriptors that could be employed in Machine Learning (ML) regressors and classifiers to predict patient evolution; 2) to explore the contribution of ML models in discerning MS trajectory descriptors using only baseline Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) studies. This study involved 446 MS patients who had a baseline MRI, at least two measurements of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), and a 1-year follow-up. Patients were divided into two groups: 1) for model development and 2) for evaluation. Three descriptors: β1, β2, and EDSS(t), were related to baseline MRI parameters using regression and classification XGBoost models. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis enhanced model transparency by identifying influential features. The results of this study demonstrate the potential of AI in predicting MS progression using the proposed patient trajectories and baseline MRI scans, outperforming classic Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) methods. In conclusion, MS trajectory descriptors are crucial; incorporating AI analysis into MRI assessments presents promising opportunities to advance predictive capabilities. SHAP analysis enhances model interpretation, revealing feature importance for clinical decisions.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Spain: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Greater understanding of the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Spain and their temporal trends is necessary to improve the allocation of healthcare resources and to study aetiological factors.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of the MedLine database and reviewed the reference lists of the articles gathered. We collected studies reporting prevalence or incidence rates of multiple sclerosis in any geographical location in Spain, with no time limits. In 70% of cases, data were extracted by 2 researchers (FGL and EAC); any discrepancies were resolved by consensus.

RESULTS

We identified 51 prevalence and 33 incidence studies published between 1968 and 2018. In the adjusted analysis, the number of prevalent cases per 100 000 population increased by 26.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.5-31.8) every 10 years. After adjusting for year and latitude, the number of incident cases per 100 000 population increased by 1.34 (95% CI, 0.98-1.69) every 10 years. We observed a trend toward higher prevalence and incidence rates at higher latitudes.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Spain has increased in recent decades, although case ascertainment appears to be incomplete in many studies. Incidence rates have also increased, but this may be due to recent improvements in the detection of new cases.

Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in the USA, Europe, Canada, Australia, and Brazil

Background

Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is a subtype of multiple sclerosis (MS), which is a chronic neurological disease, characterised by inflammation of the central nervous system. Most of MS patients eventually progress to SPMS. This study estimates the prevalence of SPMS in the United States of America, Europe, Canada, Australia, and Brazil.

Methods

A systematic literature search of the Medline and Embase databases was performed using the OVID™ SP platform to identify MS epidemiological studies published in English from database inception to September 22, 2020. Studies reporting the prevalence of MS and proportion of SPMS patients in the included population were selected. The pooled prevalence of SPMS was calculated based on the proportion of SPMS patients. The Loney quality assessment checklist was used for quality grading. A meta-analysis of the proportions was conducted in RStudio.

Results

A total of 4754 articles were retrieved, and prevalence was calculated from 97 relevant studies. Overall, 86 medium- and high-quality studies were included in the meta-analysis. Most studies were conducted in European countries (84 studies). The estimated pooled prevalence of SPMS was 22.42 (99% confidence interval: 18.30, 26.95)/100,000. The prevalence of SPMS was more in the North European countries, highest in Sweden and lowest in Brazil. A decline in SPMS prevalence was observed since the availability of oral disease-modifying therapies. We also observed a regional variation of higher SPMS prevalence in urban areas compared with rural areas.

Conclusion

High variability was observed in the estimated SPMS prevalence, and the quality of the studies conducted. The influence of latitude and other factors known to affect overall MS prevalence did not fully explain the wide range of inter-country and intra-country variability identified in the results.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02820-0.

Neuropathic Pain in Neurologic Disorders: A Narrative Review

Neuropathic pain is defined as a painful condition caused by neurological lesions or diseases. Sometimes, neurological disorders may also be associated with neuropathic pain, which can be challenging to manage. For example, multiple sclerosis (MS) may cause chronic centralized painful symptoms due to nerve damage. Other chronic neuropathic pain syndromes may occur in the form of post-stroke pain, spinal cord injury pain, and other central pain syndromes. Chronic neuropathic pain is associated with dysfunction, disability, depression, disturbed sleep, and reduced quality of life. Early diagnosis may help improve outcomes, and pain control can be an important factor in restoring function. There are more than 100 different types of peripheral neuropathy and those involving sensory neurons can provoke painful symptoms. Accurate diagnosis of peripheral neuropathy is essential for pain control. Further examples are represented by gluten neuropathy, which is an extraintestinal manifestation of gluten sensitivity and presents as a form of peripheral neuropathy; in these unusual cases, neuropathy may be managed with diet. Neuropathic pain has been linked to CoronaVirus Disease (COVID) infection both during acute infection and as a post-viral syndrome known as long COVID. In this last case, neuropathic pain relates to the host’s response to the virus. However, neuropathic pain may occur after any critical illness and has been observed as part of a syndrome following intensive care unit hospitalization.

Prevalence of Multiple sclerosis and its clinical and demographic characteristics in Kurdish populations in western Iran (2020)

BACKGROUND

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a costly burdensome nervous system disorder leading several disabilities in young and middle-aged people. Knowing MS clinical, epidemiologic and demographic characteristics may help to estimate and predict the required health services and medication facilities for the affected people. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence of MS and its demographic characteristic in about 2 million Kurdish populations in western Iran in 2020.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2020 on MS patients with Kurdish Ethnicity living in Kermanshah /western Iran which is a Mountainous area in. MS patients were registered and recruited to this study from several centers. The settings have been approved by the nationwide MS registry of Iran (NMSRI). Using two questioners, a questionnaire included sex, age, the age in which the MS symptoms onset, the age of diagnosis, family history of MS, and type of MS, and second one was the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) checklist. The demographic information of Kermanshah province was adopted from the Statistical Center of Iran. In addition to descriptive statistics, U-Mann-Whitney and Chi-square tests were also used.

RESULTS

A total of 1557 MS patients with a mean age (±SD) of 38.66 ± 9.9 years were recruited in this study. Of them, 1216 (78.1%) were female. The majority of patients, 300 patients (19.3%), were in the age range 35-39 years, and the highest prevalence (184.82 per 100,000 populations) was observed in the age range 40-44 years. The prevalence of MS in Kermanshah province is estimated 79.50 per 100,000 people, 125.71 per 100,000 in female and 34.41 per 100,000 in male. This prevalence was higher in female (female to male was 3.65 to 1). The EDSS score was significantly higher in male than in female (3.06 ± 2.2 in male versus 2.42 ± 1.8 in female) (p = 0.001). The type of MS was significantly different between male and female, so that SPMS and PPMS were more common in male (31(10.3%), 22(7.3%)) than female (81(7.5%), 39(3.6%)) (p = 0.012). A positive family history of MS was found in 12.6% of patients.

CONCLUSION

Given the information about prevalence of MS in Kermanshah (in 2012), the prevalence of MS in Kermanshah has increased during last decade. MS disabilities were more extensive in male rather than female.

Temporal trends in the incidence and prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in the Northwest of Spain

BACKGROUND

During the last decades, the frequency of multiple sclerosis (MS) is increasing worldwide. Nevertheless, the higher sensibility of the new diagnostic criteria obscures the comparison between studies performed in different decades.

METHODS

The evolution of the frequency of MS in Santiago de Compostela (North-West of Spain) between 2003 and 2015 was analyzed using Poisson regression. The diagnosis was confirmed according to Poser criteria. Several sources were consulted for case ascertainment: databases from the MS Unit, the Infusion Center, and the Departments of Neurology, Pharmacy, Pediatric Neurology and Codification of the public Hospital of Santiago, private hospitals, neurologists with private activity, general practitioners, and associations of patients.

RESULTS

In 12 years, the prevalence increased from 68 to 143 cases/100,000 inhabitants, from 83 to 176 in females; and from 49 to 106 in males (p <0.0001, 0.0001, and 0.0002 respectively). The incidence rise was not significant (from 5 to 8 cases/ 100,000 inhabitants/ year (p=0.4243). The mean age of the population growth 5.7 years (p=0.008). The changes in female: male ratio (12.9%), in the age at the first symptom (2.2 years), and the diagnosis delay (0.12 years) did not achieve significance (p=0.7750, 0.1606, 0.8581).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of MS doubled in 12 years whilst the difference in incidence was lower and not significant. The disproportion in the growth of both parameters, as well as the higher mean age in the last study, suggest a longer survival of patients with MS.