Changes in temperature affect the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

Mortality risk and burden of aortic aneurysm and dissection attributable to low temperatures: A nationwide case-crossover analysis in Brazil, a predominantly tropical country

BACKGROUND

Low temperatures are adverse contributors to cardiovascular diseases, but the associations between short-term exposure to cold and the risk of death from aortic dissection and aneurysm remain unclear, particularly in tropical regions.

OBJECTIVE

This study was conducted based on 123,951 records of deaths caused by aortic dissection and aneurysms extracted from the national Mortality Information System in Brazil between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

Relative risks and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the aortic-related deaths associated with low ambient temperatures were estimated using the conditional logistic model combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Subgroup analyses were performed by age group, sex, race, education level, and residential region. Furthermore, this study calculated the number and fraction of aortic-related deaths attributed to temperatures below the temperature threshold to quantify the cold-related mortality burden of aortic diseases.

RESULTS

During the study period, aortic-related deaths and mortality rates in Brazil exhibited a steady increase, rising from 4419 (2.66/100,000) in 2000 to 8152 (3.88/100,000) in 2019. Under the identified temperature threshold (26 °C), per 1 °C decrease in daily mean temperature was associated with a 4.77 % (95 % CI: 4.35, 5.19) increase in mortality risk of aortic-related diseases over lag 0-3 days. Females, individuals aged 50 years or older, Asian and Black race, and northern residents were more susceptible to low temperatures. Low temperatures were responsible for 19.10 % (95 % CI: 17.71, 20.45) of aortic-related deaths in Brazil.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights that low temperatures were associated with an increased risk of aortic-related deaths, with a remarkable burden even in this predominantly tropical country.

Heat transfer mechanism in idealized healthy and diseased aortas using fluid-structure interaction method

The heat transfer mechanism inside the human aorta may be related to the physiological function and lesion formation of the aortic wall. The objective of this study was to acquire the temperature distribution in the three-dimensional idealized aorta. An idealized healthy aortic geometry and three representative diseased aortas: aortic aneurysm, coarctation of the aorta, and aortic dissection were constructed. Advanced fluid-structure interaction (FSI) computational framework was applied to predict the aortic temperature distribution. The movement of the aortic root due to the heartbeat was also considered. The displacement distribution of the aortic vessel wall was consistent with clinical observation. The lesser curvature of the aortic arch, aneurysm body, coarctation region, and false lumen were all exposed to relatively high temperatures (over 310.006 K). We found that the rigid wall assumption slightly underestimated the magnitude of the whole aortic wall-averaged temperature while the changing trend and local temperature were like the results of the FSI method. Besides, the wall-averaged temperature would increase and the temperature inflection point would advance when the aortic vessel wall was loaded with a high heat flux. This pilot study revealed the aortic heat transfer mechanism and temperature distribution, and the findings may help to understand the physiological characteristics of the aortic vessel wall.

Numerical analysis of biothermal-fluids and cardiac thermal pulse of abdominal aortic aneurysm

Abdominal aortic aneurysms are serious and difficult to detect, conditions can be deadly if they rupture. In this study, the heat transfer and flow physics of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) were discussed and associated with cardiac cycle to illustrate the cardiac thermal pulse (CTP) of AAA. A CTP and infrared thermography (IRT) evaluation-based on AAA and abdomen skin surface detection method was proposed, respectively. Infrared thermography (IRT) is a promising imaging technique that may detect AAA quicker and cheaper than other imaging techniques (as biomarker). From CFD rigid-wall and FSI Analysis, the transient bioheat transfer effect resulted in a distinct thermal signature (circular thermal elevation) on the temperature profile of midriff skin surface, at both regular body temperature and supine position, under normal clinical temperature. However, it is important to note that thermography is not a perfect technology, and it does have some limitations, such as lack of clinical trials. There is still work to be done to improve this imaging technique and make it a more viable and accurate method for detecting abdominal aortic aneurysms. However, thermography is currently one of the most convenient technologies in this field, and it has the potential to detect abdominal aortic aneurysms earlier than other techniques. CTP, on the other hand, was used to examine the thermal physics of AAA. In CFD rigid-wall Analysis, AAA had a CTP that only responded to systolic phase at regular body temperature. In contrast, a healthy abdominal aorta displayed a CTP that responded to the full cardiac cycle, including diastolic phase at all simulated cases. Besides, the findings from FSI Analysis suggest the influence of numerical simulation techniques on the prediction of thermal physics behaviours of AAA and abdominal skin surface. Lastly, this study correlated the relationship between natural convective heat transfer coefficient with AAA and provided reference for potential clinical diagnostic using IRT in clinical implications.

Determination of the influence of weather and air constituents on aortic aneurysm ruptures

In this article, we present a method to determine the influence of meteorology and air pollutants on ruptured aortic aneurysm (rAA). In contrast to previous studies, our work takes into account highly resolved seasonal relationships, a time-lagged effect relationship of up to two weeks, and furthermore, potential confounding influences between the meteorological and air-hygienic variables are considered and eliminated using a cross-over procedure. We demonstrate the application of the method using the cities of Augsburg and Munich in southern Germany as examples, where a total of 152 rAA can be analyzed for the years 2010-2019. With the help of a Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the analysis of the atmospheric circulation, typical weather situations could be identified that have an influence on the occurrence of rAA in the southern German region. These are a rainy northwest wind-type in spring, humid weather in summer and warm southwest wind-type weather in autumn and winter.

Climatic influence on the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

Our aim is to examine the effects of climatic conditions on the incidence of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAA) in Catalonia, Spain. We combined clinical data from the Public Health official registries in Catalonia, Spain (HD-MBDS) of all rAAA with local climatic data obtained from the closest meteorological station (69 stations, National Meteorological Service: MeteoCat) from 2008 to 2017. We analyzed the median, maximum, minimum, and variability of atmospheric pressure (hPa) and air temperature (°C), solar irradiation (MJ/m²), humidity (%), accumulated precipitation (mm), median wind, and maximum flaw direction and velocity (°, m/s), recorded on the days of events, the previous day, and mean results for 3, 7, and 30 days before, as well as seasonality. Seventy-five control days were randomly selected in a 1-year period around every rAAA day at the same meteorological station, and compared. A total of 717 days and locations with rAAA were identified, and 53,775 controls were randomly selected. For the rAAA days, there were significantly lower temperatures, lower solar global irradiation, and higher mean humidity levels in all time periods (p < 0.001, p < 0.001, p < 0.05); higher atmospheric pressure variability during 1 week and 1 month before (p = 0.011, p = 0.007); and they often occurred during autumn/winter (57.6%, p < 0.001). Logistic regression identified low mean temperatures on the days of ruptures and high mean humidity the week before as independent rupture predictors. In conclusion, low median temperatures the same day and high humidity during 1 week before were identified as independent predictors of rAAA occurrence. The role of climate on pathophysiologic mechanisms may require further investigation.

The effects of changing meteorological parameters on fatal aortic catastrophes

Background

Over the span of the last decade, medical research has been increasingly putting greater emphasis on the study of meteorological parameters due to their connection to cardiovascular diseases. The main goal of this study was to explore the relationship between fatal aortic catastrophes and changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature.

Methods

We used a Cox process model to quantify the effects of environmental factors on sudden deaths resulting from aortic catastrophes. We used transfer entropy to draw conclusion about the causal connection between mortality and meteorological parameters. Our main tool was a computer program which we developed earlier in order to evaluate the relationship between pulmonary embolism mortality and weather on data sets comprised of aortic aneurysm (AA) and acute aortic dissection (AAD) cases, where one of these two medical conditions had led to fatal rupture of the aorta. Our source for these cases were the autopsy databases of Semmelweis University, from the time period of 1994 to 2014. We have examined 160 aneurysm and 130 dissection cases in relation to changes in meteorological parameters. The algorythm implemented in our program is based on a non-parametric a Cox process model. It is capable of splitting slowly varying unknown global trends from fluctuations potentially caused by weather. Furthermore, it allows us to explore complex non-linear interactions between meteorological parameters and mortality.

Results

Model measures the relative growth of the expected number of events on the n^th day caused by the deviation of environmental parameters from its mean value. The connection between ruptured aortic aneurysms (rAA) and changes in atmospheric pressure is more significant than their connection with mean daily temperatures. With an increase in atmospheric pressure, the rate of rAA mortality also increased. The effects of meteorological parameters were weaker for deaths resulting from acute aortic dissections (AAD), although low mean daily temperatures increased the intensity of occurrence for AAD-related deaths.

Conclusion

The occurrence rate of fatal aortic catastrophes showed a slight dependence on the two examined parameters within our groups.

Forecasting aortic aneurysm rupture: A systematic review of seasonal and atmospheric associations

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) represent a significant burden of disease worldwide, and their rupture, without treatment, has an invariably high mortality rate. Whereas some risk factors for ruptured AAAs (rAAAs) are well established, such as hypertension, smoking, and female sex, the impact of seasonal and meteorologic variables is less clear. We systematically reviewed the literature to determine whether these variables are associated with rAAA.

METHODS

Review methods were according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We calculated pooled proportions and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the different months and seasons. Funnel plots were constructed to assess for publication bias. Given the poor methodologic quality of included studies, a sensitivity analysis was performed on better-quality studies, which scored 6 and above of 9 in the author-modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in the autumn season (incidence rate, 26.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.6%-27.7%; I² = 15.4%), followed by winter (incidence rate, 26.2%; 95% CI, 24.1%-28.2%; I² = 72.4%), and lowest in summer (incidence rate, 21.1%; 95% CI, 19.3%-23.0%; I² = 70.4%). The IRRs of rAAA were -6.9% (95% CI, -9.8% to -3.9%), -19.5% (95% CI, -22% to -16.8%), +10.5% (95% CI, 7.2%-13.9%), and +18.1% (95% CI, 15%-22%) in spring, summer, autumn, and winter compared with the remaining seasons, respectively (all P < .0001), thus affirming existence of seasonal variation. The pooled proportion of rAAA was highest in December (incidence rate, 8.9%; 95% CI, 7.1%-10.9%; I² = 54.5%) but lowest in July (incidence rate, 5.7%; 95% CI, 4.2%-7.3%; I² = 54.5%). The IRR was significantly the highest in January (IRR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.29; P = .031) but lowest in July (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.87; P < .0001). There is also some evidence for a possible association with atmospheric pressure. Associations with temperature and daylight hours, however, are at best speculative.

CONCLUSIONS

Autumn and winter are significantly associated with a higher incidence of rAAAs, and autumn is associated with the highest rupture incidence of all the seasons. However, the inability to appropriately control for other confounding factors known to increase the risk of AAA rupture precludes any additional recommendations to alter current provision of vascular services on the basis of these data.

Seasonal incidence of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and the influence of atmospheric pressure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) is a life-threatening condition with a high mortality rate. Seasonal variations in the incidence of rAAA and the influence of atmospheric pressure have been studied throughout decades; however, the conclusions are contradictory. Therefore, we aimed to conduct a meta-analysis and systematic review of literature on seasonal variations in rAAA incidence and the influence of atmospheric pressure. Studies investigating seasonal variations in rAAA incidence and influence of atmospheric pressure were retrieved. For dichotomous data, we generated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for rAAA incidence compared among seasons. The studies were subdivided according to latitude, elevation, and climatic types, for subgroup comparisons. Studies reporting monthly incidence and seasonal mortality were further investigated. For continuous data, standardized mean differences (SMDs) and 95% CIs were generated for atmospheric pressure comparisons. Twenty-four eligible studies were included, comprising a total of 38,506 patients with rAAA. Pooled rAAA incidence was 25% in spring, 23% in summer, 26% in autumn, and 26% in winter. Pooled analysis demonstrated a statistically significant higher rAAA incidence in winter than in summer (RR 1.10, P = 0.04) and in autumn than in summer (RR 1.11, P < 0.00001). However, there was no statistically significant difference among other seasons. In the study of the influence of atmospheric pressure, no statistically significant difference was observed. In conclusion, our study revealed a higher incidence of rAAA in autumn and winter than in summer; however, atmospheric pressure was found to exert no influence.