Risk factors and clinical outcomes of extrahepatic recurrence in patients with post-hepatectomy recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

Correlation between immune-related adverse events and long-term outcomes in pembrolizumab-treated patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Although immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy has improved the prognosis of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), it has also resulted in unique immune-related adverse events (irAEs). The relationship between irAE and treatment outcomes in ICI-treated unresectable HCC patients remains unknown.

AIM

To elucidate the correlation between immune-related toxic effects and prognosis in patients with unresectable HCC treated with pembrolizumab.

METHODS

From March 2019 to February 2021, a total of 190 unresectable HCC (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer C) patients receiving pembrolizumab treatment were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint, while objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and time to progression (TTP) were secondary evaluation indexes. We assessed demographics, irAEs, and outcomes by retrospective review.

RESULTS

One hundred and forty-three males and 47 females were included in the study. The ORR and DCR were 12.1% (23/190) and 52.1% (99/190), respectively. The median OS was 376 d [95% confidence interval (CI): 340-411 d] and the median TTP was 98 d (95%CI: 75-124 d). The overall incidence of treatment-related adverse events was 72.6% (138/190) and 10.0% of them were severe irAEs (grade ≥ 3). Child-Pugh B class, portal vein tumor thrombus, extrahepatic metastasis, and hypothyroidism were the independent risk factors for survival. Patients with hypothyroidism showed a longer OS [517 d (95%CI: 423-562) vs 431 d (95%CI: 412-485), P = 0.011] and TTP [125 d (95%CI: 89-154) vs 87 d (95%CI: 61-98), P = 0.004] than those without irAEs.

CONCLUSION

Pembrolizumab-treated patients with unresectable HCC who experienced hypothyroidism have promising ORR and durable response. Hypothyroidism, an irAE, may be used as a clinical evaluation parameter of response to ICIs in unresectable HCC.

Machine learning models in the prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with advanced hepatocellular cancer on immunotherapy: a proof-of-concept study

INTRODUCTION

Immunotherapy is a new promising treatment for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but is costly and potentially associated with considerable side effects. This study aimed to evaluate the role of machine learning (ML) models in predicting the 1-year cancer-related mortality in advanced HCC patients treated with immunotherapy.

METHOD

395 HCC patients who had received immunotherapy (including nivolumab, pembrolizumab or ipilimumab) between 2014 and 2019 in Hong Kong were included. The whole data sets were randomly divided into training (n = 316) and internal validation (n = 79) set. The data set, including 47 clinical variables, was used to construct six different ML models in predicting the risk of 1-year mortality. The performances of ML models were measured by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and their performances were compared with C-Reactive protein and Alpha Fetoprotein in ImmunoTherapY score (CRAFITY) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score. The ML models were further validated with an external cohort between 2020 and 2021.

RESULTS

The 1-year cancer-related mortality was 51.1%. Of the six ML models, the random forest (RF) has the highest AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.98), which was better than logistic regression (0.82, p = 0.01) as well as the CRAFITY (0.68, p < 0.01) and ALBI score (0.84, p = 0.04). RF had the lowest false positive (2.0%) and false negative rate (5.2%), and performed better than CRAFITY score in the external validation cohort (0.91 vs 0.66, p < 0.01). High baseline AFP, bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase were three common risk factors identified by all ML models.

CONCLUSION

ML models could predict 1-year cancer-related mortality in HCC patients treated with immunotherapy, which may help to select patients who would benefit from this treatment.