Poor predictive value of lower gastrointestinal alarm features in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer in 1981 patients in secondary care

The performance of FIT-based and other risk prediction models for colorectal neoplasia in symptomatic patients: a systematic review

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality are increasing internationally. Endoscopy services are under significant pressure with many overwhelmed. Faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) has been advocated to identify a high-risk population of symptomatic patients requiring definitive investigation by colonoscopy. Combining FIT with other factors in a risk prediction model could further improve performance in identifying those requiring investigation most urgently. We systematically reviewed performance of models predicting risk of CRC and/or advanced colorectal polyps (ACP) in symptomatic patients, with a particular focus on those models including FIT.

Methods

The review protocol was published on PROSPERO (CRD42022314710). Searches were conducted from database inception to April 2023 in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane libraries, SCOPUS and CINAHL. Risk of bias of each study was assessed using The Prediction study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. A narrative synthesis based on the guidelines for Synthesis Without Meta-Analysis was performed due to study heterogeneity.

Findings

We included 62 studies; 23 included FIT (n = 22) or guaiac Faecal Occult Blood Testing (n = 1) combined with one or more other variables. Twenty-one studies were conducted solely in primary care. Generally, prediction models including FIT consistently had good discriminatory ability for CRC/ACP (i.e. AUC >0.8) and performed better than models without FIT although some models without FIT also performed well. However, many studies did not present calibration and internal and external validation were limited. Two studies were rated as low risk of bias; neither model included FIT.

Interpretation

Risk prediction models, including and not including FIT, show promise for identifying those most at risk of colorectal neoplasia. Substantial limitations in evidence remain, including heterogeneity, high risk of bias, and lack of external validation. Further evaluation in studies adhering to gold standard methodology, in appropriate populations, is required before widespread adoption in clinical practice.

Funding

National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) [Health Technology Assessment Programme (HTA) Programme (Project number 133852).

Possible Value of Faecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) When Added in Symptomatic Patients Referred for Colonoscopy: A Systematic Review

If Colorectal cancer (CRC) is detected and treated early, the survival rate is high. This is one of the reasons that population-based screening programs for the early detection of CRC using the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) started worldwide. These programs compete with regular colonoscopy programs and increase the waiting time for symptomatic patients. However, the literature has shown that the correlation between intestinal complaints and the gain of colonoscopy is poor. The aim of this study is to assess the diagnostic utility of symptoms for the yield (CRC) of colonoscopy and to compare this with the diagnostic utility of FIT when offered to symptomatic patients. Methods: We performed a systematic review search for CRC as an outcome of colonoscopy in referred symptomatic patients and separately for CRC as an outcome in symptomatic patients with a positive FIT. We searched systematically for clinical trials or observational studies in databases, followed by hand-searching of reference lists. We used random Meta-Disc to evaluate the diagnostic performance, using the exploration of heterogeneity with a variety of test statistics and by computing the pooled estimates. Results: We included 35 studies, with almost 5 million symptomatic patients. In addition, we included nine prospective studies with a positive FIT in symptomatic patients, with more than 5000 patients. Significant heterogeneity was found for every symptom and the outcome of colonoscopy in the effect size of sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio. In a random effect model, the pooled sensitivity of colonoscopy in symptomatic patients was very low (25%). However, the pooled sensitivity in symptomatic patients with a positive FIT was 83% and the pooled specificity 77%. A total of 75 symptomatic patients (1.4%) had a false-negative FIT. Conclusion: Adding FIT in symptomatic patients seems useful for predicting CRC as an outcome of colonoscopy. FIT seems a potential tool for an improved triage of colonoscopy in symptomatic patients.

Cancer diagnostic tools to aid decision-making in primary care: mixed-methods systematic reviews and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Tools based on diagnostic prediction models are available to help general practitioners diagnose cancer. It is unclear whether or not tools expedite diagnosis or affect patient quality of life and/or survival.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the evidence on the validation, clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and availability and use of cancer diagnostic tools in primary care.

METHODS

Two systematic reviews were conducted to examine the clinical effectiveness (review 1) and the development, validation and accuracy (review 2) of diagnostic prediction models for aiding general practitioners in cancer diagnosis. Bibliographic searches were conducted on MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science) in May 2017, with updated searches conducted in November 2018. A decision-analytic model explored the tools' clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in colorectal cancer. The model compared patient outcomes and costs between strategies that included the use of the tools and those that did not, using the NHS perspective. We surveyed 4600 general practitioners in randomly selected UK practices to determine the proportions of general practices and general practitioners with access to, and using, cancer decision support tools. Association between access to these tools and practice-level cancer diagnostic indicators was explored.

RESULTS

Systematic review 1 - five studies, of different design and quality, reporting on three diagnostic tools, were included. We found no evidence that using the tools was associated with better outcomes. Systematic review 2 - 43 studies were included, reporting on prediction models, in various stages of development, for 14 cancer sites (including multiple cancers). Most studies relate to QCancer^® (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK) and risk assessment tools.

DECISION MODEL

In the absence of studies reporting their clinical outcomes, QCancer and risk assessment tools were evaluated against faecal immunochemical testing. A linked data approach was used, which translates diagnostic accuracy into time to diagnosis and treatment, and stage at diagnosis. Given the current lack of evidence, the model showed that the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools in colorectal cancer relies on demonstrating patient survival benefits. Sensitivity of faecal immunochemical testing and specificity of QCancer and risk assessment tools in a low-risk population were the key uncertain parameters.

SURVEY

Practitioner- and practice-level response rates were 10.3% (476/4600) and 23.3% (227/975), respectively. Cancer decision support tools were available in 83 out of 227 practices (36.6%, 95% confidence interval 30.3% to 43.1%), and were likely to be used in 38 out of 227 practices (16.7%, 95% confidence interval 12.1% to 22.2%). The mean 2-week-wait referral rate did not differ between practices that do and practices that do not have access to QCancer or risk assessment tools (mean difference of 1.8 referrals per 100,000 referrals, 95% confidence interval -6.7 to 10.3 referrals per 100,000 referrals).

LIMITATIONS

There is little good-quality evidence on the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic tools. Many diagnostic prediction models are limited by a lack of external validation. There are limited data on current UK practice and clinical outcomes of diagnostic strategies, and there is no evidence on the quality-of-life outcomes of diagnostic results. The survey was limited by low response rates.

CONCLUSION

The evidence base on the tools is limited. Research on how general practitioners interact with the tools may help to identify barriers to implementation and uptake, and the potential for clinical effectiveness.

FUTURE WORK

Continued model validation is recommended, especially for risk assessment tools. Assessment of the tools' impact on time to diagnosis and treatment, stage at diagnosis, and health outcomes is also recommended, as is further work to understand how tools are used in general practitioner consultations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017068373 and CRD42017068375.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Reevaluation of a rightward shift in colorectal cancer: A single-center retrospective study in Tianjin

OBJECTIVES

Some Western reports have shown a proximal shift in colorectal cancer (CRC), but there are few studies in China. This study aimed to provide more information for the management and screening of CRC by investigating trends in the anatomic distribution of CRC among the Chinese population in recent years.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on patients with CRC admitted to the Digestive Endoscopy Center of Tianjin Medical University General Hospital between January 2000 and December 2017. Patients were divided into a left-sided colorectal cancer (LSCRC) group and a right-sided colon cancer (RSCC) group. The detection rates of LSCRC and RSCC based on patients' age and sex, and on the time periods were analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 2319 cases were diagnosed with CRC among 75 183 consecutive patients. The prevalence of CRC showed a significant reduction from 2000-2008 to 2009-2017 (3.8% vs 2.7%, P < .001). The proportion of RSCC presented a downtrend from 2000-2008 to 2009-2017 (40.6% vs 37.7%, P > .05). There were slightly more RSCCs in female patients than in male patients, with no significant difference (40.9% vs 36.5%, P > .05). The proportion of RSCC in patients aged ≥50 years was similar to that in younger patients. The alarming symptoms between LSCRC and RSCC showed a significant difference (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, the prevalence of CRC declined significantly with time. However, there did not appear to be a rightward shift in CRC among the patients in Tianjin over the past 18 years.

AGA Technical Review on the Evaluation of Functional Diarrhea and Diarrhea-Predominant Irritable Bowel Syndrome in Adults (IBS-D)

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The evaluation of patients with chronic watery diarrhea represents a diagnostic challenge for clinicians because organic causes, including inflammatory bowel disease, microscopic colitis, and chronic infection, must be differentiated from functional diarrhea and diarrhea-predominant irritable bowel syndrome. The purpose of this review is to summarize the available evidence on the usefulness of diagnostic tests in such patients.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE via OVID, from 1978 until April 2017. We included diagnostic test accuracy studies reporting on the use of fecal and blood tests for the evaluation of adult patients with functional diarrhea, including irritable bowel syndrome. We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using a modified version of the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies II, and the certainty in the evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) approach. We calculated pooled sensitivity and specificity, and the proportion of patients with true and false positive and negative results. We evaluated the following tests: erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, fecal lactoferrin, fecal calprotectin, serologic tests for celiac disease, tests for bile acid diarrhea, the commercially available version of anti-cytolethal distending toxin B and anti-vinculin antibodies, and tests for Giardia infection. We did not evaluate breath tests for small intestinal bacterial overgrowth, as they are not part of a standard diarrhea workup.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies proved eligible to evaluate 1 or more of these tests. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C-reactive protein were similar at discriminating organic from functional disease, with sensitivity and specificity, respectively, of 0.54-0.78 and 0.46-0.95 for erythrocyte sedimentation rate and 0.73 and 0.78 for C-reactive protein. Among fecal tests, fecal calprotectin in a range of 50-60 μg/g (pooled sensitivity 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.86; pooled specificity 0.87; 95% CI, 0.78-0.92) and fecal lactoferrin in a range of 4.0-7.25 μg/g (pooled sensitivity 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84; pooled specificity 0.93; 95%CI 0.63-0.99) presented the lowest proportion of false-negative results (low certainty in the evidence). Among tests for celiac disease, IgA tissue transglutaminase presented the best diagnostic test accuracy (sensitivity range, 0.79-0.99; specificity range, 0.90-0.99) with moderate certainty in the evidence. Among tests for bile acid diarrhea, the ⁷⁵selenium homotaurocholic acid test performed better than serum fibroblast growth factor 19 and 7α-hydroxy-4-cholesten-3-one, but is not available in the United States. There was insufficient evidence to recommend serologic tests for irritable bowel syndrome at this time. There are several good diagnostic tests for Giardia infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate to low certainty in the evidence indicates that available fecal and blood tests may play a role in the diagnostic workup of adult patients with functional diarrhea. At the moment, no tests are available to reliably rule in irritable bowel syndrome.

Overexpression of CCDC34 in colorectal cancer and its involvement in tumor growth, apoptosis and invasion

It has been previously reported that increased expression of coiled-coil domain containing 34 (CCDC34), a member of the CCDCs family, may promote the proliferation and invasion of bladder cancer cells. However, its role in colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. The present study investigated CCDC34 expression in CRC tissues and determined the association between CCDC34 expression and biological characteristics in patients with CRC. Additionally, the variation of cell activity, apoptosis, invasion and associated mechanisms were evaluated following CCDC34 inhibition in SW620 cells with small interfering RNA (siRNA). The role of CCDC34 in CRC growth, apoptosis and invasion was investigated. In the current study, immunohistochemistry revealed an overexpression of CCDC34 in CRC tissues compared with paracancerous tissue (χ²=29.810; P<0.001). Furthermore, CCDC34 expression was revealed to be associated with tumor invasion depth and lymphatic metastasis (χ²=4.343, P=0.037; χ²=7.915, P=0.005). Additionally, the inhibition of CCDC34 expression in SW620 cells led to reduced tumor cell activity, increased apoptosis rate and reduced invasion ability, and expression of apoptosis and invasion-associated genes varied simultaneously which demonstrated that B cell leukemia/lymphoma 2, survivin, N-cadherin, and MMP-9 were decreased, whereas E-cadherin increased significantly in cells of CCDC34-siRNA group compared with the control group (P<0.05). Therefore, CCDC34 may contribute to CRC development by inhibiting apoptosis of cancer cells and promoting invasion.

Derivation and validation of a diagnostic test for irritable bowel syndrome using latent class analysis

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of symptom-based diagnostic criteria for irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is modest.

AIMS

To derive and validate a new test that utilises latent class analysis.

METHODS

Symptom, colonoscopy, and histology data were collected from 1981 patients and 360 patients in two cohorts referred to secondary care for investigation of their gastrointestinal symptoms in Canada and the UK, respectively. Latent class analysis was used to identify naturally occurring clusters in patient-reported symptoms in the Canadian dataset, and the latent class model derived from this was then applied to the UK dataset in order to validate it. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) were calculated for the latent class models.

RESULTS

In the Canadian cohort, the model had a sensitivity of 44.7% (95% CI 40.0-50.0) and a specificity of 85.3% (95% CI 83.4-87.0). Positive and negative LRs were 3.03 (95% CI 2.57-3.56) and 0.65 (95% CI 0.59-0.71) respectively. A maximum positive LR of 3.93 was achieved following construction of a receiver operating characteristic curve. The performance in the UK cohort was similar, with a sensitivity and specificity of 52.5% (95% CI 42.2-62.7) and 84.3% (95% CI 79.3-88.6), respectively. Positive and negative LRs were 3.35 (95% CI 2.38-4.70) and 0.56 (95% CI 0.45-0.68), respectively, with a maximum positive LR of 4.15.

CONCLUSIONS

A diagnostic test for IBS, utilising patient-reported symptoms incorporated into a latent class model, performs as accurately as symptom-based criteria. It has potential for improvement via addition of clinical markers, such as coeliac serology and faecal calprotectin.