Nonlinear mediation analysis with high-dimensional mediators whose causal structure is unknown

Shape Mediation Analysis in Alzheimer's Disease Studies

As a crucial tool in neuroscience, mediation analysis has been developed and widely adopted to elucidate the role of intermediary variables derived from neuroimaging data. Typically, structural equation models (SEMs) are employed to investigate the influences of exposures on outcomes, with model coefficients being interpreted as causal effects. While existing SEMs have proven to be effective tools for mediation analysis involving various neuroimaging-related mediators, limited research has explored scenarios where these mediators are derived from the shape space. In addition, the linear relationship assumption adopted in existing SEMs may lead to substantial efficiency losses and decreased predictive accuracy in real-world applications. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel framework for shape mediation analysis, designed to explore the causal relationships between genetic exposures and clinical outcomes, whether mediated or unmediated by shape-related factors while accounting for potential confounding variables. Within our framework, we apply the square-root velocity function to extract elastic shape representations, which reside within the linear Hilbert space of square-integrable functions. Subsequently, we introduce a two-layer shape regression model to characterize the relationships among neurocognitive outcomes, elastic shape mediators, genetic exposures, and clinical confounders. Both estimation and inference procedures are established for unknown parameters along with the corresponding causal estimands. The asymptotic properties of estimated quantities are investigated as well. Both simulated studies and real-data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method in terms of estimation accuracy and robustness when compared to existing approaches for estimating causal estimands.

Heterogeneous Mediation Analysis for Cox Proportional Hazards Model With Multiple Mediators

This study proposes a heterogeneous mediation analysis for survival data that accommodates multiple mediators and sparsity of the predictors. We introduce a joint modeling approach that links the mediation regression and proportional hazards models through Bayesian additive regression trees with shared typologies. The shared tree component is motivated by the fact that confounders and effect modifiers on the causal pathways linked by different mediators often overlap. A sparsity-inducing prior is incorporated to capture the most relevant confounders and effect modifiers on different causal pathways. The individual-specific interventional direct and indirect effects are derived on the scale of the logarithm of hazards and survival function. A Bayesian approach with an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to estimate the conditional interventional effects through the Monte Carlo implementation of the mediation formula. Simulation studies are conducted to verify the empirical performance of the proposed method. An application to the ACTG175 study further demonstrates the method's utility in causal discovery and heterogeneity quantification.

Path-specific causal decomposition analysis with multiple correlated mediator variables

A causal decomposition analysis allows researchers to determine whether the difference in a health outcome between two groups can be attributed to a difference in each group's distribution of one or more modifiable mediator variables. With this knowledge, researchers and policymakers can focus on designing interventions that target these mediator variables. Existing methods for causal decomposition analysis either focus on one mediator variable or assume that each mediator variable is conditionally independent given the group label and the mediator-outcome confounders. In this article, we propose a flexible causal decomposition analysis method that can accommodate multiple correlated and interacting mediator variables, which are frequently seen in studies of health behaviors and studies of environmental pollutants. We extend a Monte Carlo-based causal decomposition analysis method to this setting by using a multivariate mediator model that can accommodate any combination of binary and continuous mediator variables. Furthermore, we state the causal assumptions needed to identify both joint and path-specific decomposition effects through each mediator variable. To illustrate the reduction in bias and confidence interval width of the decomposition effects under our proposed method, we perform a simulation study. We also apply our approach to examine whether differences in smoking status and dietary inflammation score explain any of the Black-White differences in incident diabetes using data from a national cohort study.

Practical causal mediation analysis: extending nonparametric estimators to accommodate multiple mediators and multiple intermediate confounders

Mediation analysis is appealing for its ability to improve understanding of the mechanistic drivers of causal effects, but real-world data complexities challenge its successful implementation, including (i) the existence of post-exposure variables that also affect mediators and outcomes (thus, confounding the mediator-outcome relationship), that may also be (ii) multivariate, and (iii) the existence of multivariate mediators. All three challenges are present in the mediation analysis we consider here, where our goal is to estimate the indirect effects of receiving a Section 8 housing voucher as a young child on the risk of developing a psychiatric mood disorder in adolescence that operate through mediators related to neighborhood poverty, the school environment, and instability of the neighborhood and school environments, considered together and separately. Interventional direct and indirect effects (IDE/IIE) accommodate post-exposure variables that confound the mediator-outcome relationship, but currently, no readily implementable nonparametric estimator for IDE/IIE exists that allows for both multivariate mediators and multivariate post-exposure intermediate confounders. The absence of such an IDE/IIE estimator that can easily accommodate both multivariate mediators and post-exposure confounders represents a significant limitation for real-world analyses, because when considering each mediator subgroup separately, the remaining mediator subgroups (or a subset of them) become post-exposure intermediate confounders. We address this gap by extending a recently developed nonparametric estimator for the IDE/IIE to allow for easy incorporation of multivariate mediators and multivariate post-exposure confounders simultaneously. We apply the proposed estimation approach to our analysis, including walking through a strategy to account for other, possibly co-occurring intermediate variables when considering each mediator subgroup separately.

Mediation analysis in longitudinal study with high-dimensional methylation mediators

Mediation analysis has been widely utilized to identify potential pathways connecting exposures and outcomes. However, there remains a lack of analytical methods for high-dimensional mediation analysis in longitudinal data. To tackle this concern, we proposed an effective and novel approach with variable selection and the indirect effect (IE) assessment based on both linear mixed-effect model and generalized estimating equation. Initially, we employ sure independence screening to reduce the dimension of candidate mediators. Subsequently, we implement the Sobel test with the Bonferroni correction for IE hypothesis testing. Through extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the performance of our proposed procedure with a higher F$_{1}$ score (0.8056 and 0.9983 at sample sizes of 150 and 500, respectively) compared with the linear method (0.7779 and 0.9642 at the same sample sizes), along with more accurate parameter estimation and a significantly lower false discovery rate. Moreover, we apply our methodology to explore the mediation mechanisms involving over 730 000 DNA methylation sites with potential effects between the paternal body mass index (BMI) and offspring growing BMI in the Shanghai sleeping birth cohort data, leading to the identification of two previously undiscovered mediating CpG sites.

In utero exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances and early childhood BMI trajectories: A mediation analysis with neonatal metabolic profiles

BACKGROUND

In utero perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure has been associated with childhood adiposity, but the mechanisms are poorly known.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential mediating role of neonatal metabolites in the relationship between prenatal PFAS exposure and childhood adiposity trajectories in the first four years of life.

METHODS

We analyzed the data for 1671 mother-child pairs from the Shanghai Birth Cohort study. We included those with PFAS exposure information in early pregnancy, neonatal metabolites data and at least three child anthropometric measurements at 6, 12, 24 and/or 48 months. Body mass index (BMI) z-score trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modeling. The associations between PFAS concentrations and trajectory classes were assessed using multinomial logistic regression. Screening and penalization-based selection was used to identify neonatal amino acids and acylcarnitines with significant mediation effects.

RESULTS

Three BMI z-score trajectories in early childhood were identified: a persistent increase trajectory (Class 1, 2.2 %), a stable trajectory (Class 2, 66 %), and a transient increase trajectory (Class 3, 32 %). Increased odds of being in Class 1 were observed in association with one log-unit increase in concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (odds ratio [OR], 1.76 [95 % CI, 0.96-3.23], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.36 [95 % CI, 1.27-4.40], Class 3 as reference), perfluorononanoic acid (OR, 1.90 [95 % CI, 0.97-3.72], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.23 [95 % CI, 1.12-4.42], Class 3 as reference) and perfluorodecanoic acid (OR, 1.95 [95 % CI, 1.12-3.38], Class 2 as reference; OR, 2.14 [95 % CI, 1.22-3.76], Class 3 as reference). The effect of prenatal PFAS exposure on being in Class 1 was significantly but partly mediated by octanoylcarnitine (2.64 % for perfluorononanoic acid and 3.70 % for sum of 10 PFAS).

CONCLUSIONS

In utero PFAS exposure is a risk factor for persistent growth in BMI z-score in early childhood. The alteration of neonatal acylcarnitines suggests a potential molecular pathway.

Linear high-dimensional mediation models adjusting for confounders using propensity score method

High-dimensional mediation analysis has been developed to study whether epigenetic phenotype in a high-dimensional data form would mediate the causal pathway of exposure to disease. However, most existing models are designed based on the assumption that there are no confounders between the exposure, the mediators, and the outcome. In practice, this assumption may not be feasible since high-dimensional mediation analysis (HIMA) tends to be observational where a randomized controlled trial (RCT) cannot be conducted for some economic or ethical reasons. Thus, to deal with the confounders in HIMA cases, we proposed three propensity score-related approaches named PSR (propensity score regression), PSW (propensity score weighting), and PSU (propensity score union) to adjust for the confounder bias in HIMA, and compared them with the traditional covariate regression method. The procedures mainly include four parts: calculating the propensity score, sure independence screening, MCP (minimax concave penalty) variable selection, and joint-significance testing. Simulation results show that the PSU model is the most recommended. Applying our models to the TCGA lung cancer dataset, we find that smoking may lead to lung disease through the mediation effect of some specific DNA-methylation sites, including site Cg24480765 in gene RP11-347H15.2 and site Cg22051776 in gene KLF3.

HIMA2: high-dimensional mediation analysis and its application in epigenome-wide DNA methylation data

Mediation analysis plays a major role in identifying significant mediators in the pathway between environmental exposures and health outcomes. With advanced data collection technology for large-scale studies, there has been growing research interest in developing methodology for high-dimensional mediation analysis. In this paper we present HIMA2, an extension of the HIMA method (Zhang in Bioinformatics 32:3150-3154, 2016). First, the proposed HIMA2 reduces the dimension of mediators to a manageable level based on the sure independence screening (SIS) method (Fan in J R Stat Soc Ser B 70:849-911, 2008). Second, a de-biased Lasso procedure is implemented for estimating regression parameters. Third, we use a multiple-testing procedure to accurately control the false discovery rate (FDR) when testing high-dimensional mediation hypotheses. We demonstrate its practical performance using Monte Carlo simulation studies and apply our method to identify DNA methylation markers which mediate the pathway from smoking to reduced lung function in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

Causal mediation analysis with multiple causally non-ordered and ordered mediators based on summarized genetic data

Causal mediation analysis investigates the mechanism linking exposure and outcome. Dealing with the impact of unobserved confounders among exposure, mediator and outcome is an issue of great concern. Moreover, when multiple mediators exist, this causal pathway intertwines with other causal pathways, rendering it difficult to estimate the path-specific effects. In this study, we propose a method (PSE-MR) to identify and estimate path-specific effects of an exposure (e.g. education) on an outcome (e.g. osteoarthritis risk) through multiple causally ordered and non-ordered mediators (e.g. body mass index and pack-years of smoking) using summarized genetic data, when the sequential ignorability assumption is violated. Specifically, PSE-MR requires a specific rank condition in which the number of instrumental variables is larger than the number of mediators. Furthermore, we illustrate the utility of PSE-MR by providing guidance for practitioners and exploring the mediation effects of body mass index and pack-years of smoking in the causal pathways from education to osteoarthritis risk. Additionally, the results of simulation reveal that the causal estimates of path-specific effects are almost unbiased with good coverage and Type I error properties. Also, we summarize the least number of instrumental variables for the specific number of mediators to achieve 80% power.

High-Dimensional Mediation Analysis Based on Additive Hazards Model for Survival Data

Mediation analysis has been extensively used to identify potential pathways between exposure and outcome. However, the analytical methods of high-dimensional mediation analysis for survival data are still yet to be promoted, especially for non-Cox model approaches. We propose a procedure including "two-step" variable selection and indirect effect estimation for the additive hazards model with high-dimensional mediators. We first apply sure independence screening and smoothly clipped absolute deviation regularization to select mediators. Then we use the Sobel test and the BH method for indirect effect hypothesis testing. Simulation results demonstrate its good performance with a higher true-positive rate and accuracy, as well as a lower false-positive rate. We apply the proposed procedure to analyze DNA methylation markers mediating smoking and survival time of lung cancer patients in a TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas) cohort study. The real data application identifies four mediate CpGs, three of which are newly found.