Causal mediation analysis using high-dimensional image mediator bounded in irregular domain with an application to breast cancer

Permutation Test for Image-on-Scalar Regression With an Application to Breast Cancer

Image based screening is now routinely available for early detection of cancer and other diseases. Quantitative analysis for effects of risk factors on digital images is important to extract biological insights for modifiable factors in prevention studies and understand pathways for targets in preventive drugs. However, current approaches are restricted to summary measures within the image with the assumption that all relevant features needed to characterize an image can be identified and appropriately quantified. Motivated by data challenges in breast cancer, we propose a nonparametric statistical framework for risk factor screening that uses the whole mammogram image as outcome. The proposed permutation test allows assessment of whether a set of scalar risk factors is associated with the whole image in the presence of correlated residuals across the spatial domain. We provide extensive simulation studies and illustrate an application to the Joanne Knight Breast Health Cohort using the mammogram imaging data.

A Bayesian joint model for mediation analysis with matrix-valued mediators

Unscheduled treatment interruptions may lead to reduced quality of care in radiation therapy (RT). Identifying the RT prescription dose effects on the outcome of treatment interruptions, mediated through doses distributed into different organs at risk (OARs), can inform future treatment planning. The radiation exposure to OARs can be summarized by a matrix of dose-volume histograms (DVH) for each patient. Although various methods for high-dimensional mediation analysis have been proposed recently, few studies investigated how matrix-valued data can be treated as mediators. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian joint mediation model for high-dimensional matrix-valued mediators. In this joint model, latent features are extracted from the matrix-valued data through an adaptation of probabilistic multilinear principal components analysis (MPCA), retaining the inherent matrix structure. We derive and implement a Gibbs sampling algorithm to jointly estimate all model parameters, and introduce a Varimax rotation method to identify active indicators of mediation among the matrix-valued data. Our simulation study finds that the proposed joint model has higher efficiency in estimating causal decomposition effects compared to an alternative two-step method, and demonstrates that the mediation effects can be identified and visualized in the matrix form. We apply the method to study the effect of prescription dose on treatment interruptions in anal canal cancer patients.

Mediation analysis in longitudinal study with high-dimensional methylation mediators

Mediation analysis has been widely utilized to identify potential pathways connecting exposures and outcomes. However, there remains a lack of analytical methods for high-dimensional mediation analysis in longitudinal data. To tackle this concern, we proposed an effective and novel approach with variable selection and the indirect effect (IE) assessment based on both linear mixed-effect model and generalized estimating equation. Initially, we employ sure independence screening to reduce the dimension of candidate mediators. Subsequently, we implement the Sobel test with the Bonferroni correction for IE hypothesis testing. Through extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the performance of our proposed procedure with a higher F$_{1}$ score (0.8056 and 0.9983 at sample sizes of 150 and 500, respectively) compared with the linear method (0.7779 and 0.9642 at the same sample sizes), along with more accurate parameter estimation and a significantly lower false discovery rate. Moreover, we apply our methodology to explore the mediation mechanisms involving over 730 000 DNA methylation sites with potential effects between the paternal body mass index (BMI) and offspring growing BMI in the Shanghai sleeping birth cohort data, leading to the identification of two previously undiscovered mediating CpG sites.

Causal mediation analysis with a three-dimensional image mediator

Causal mediation analysis is increasingly abundant in biology, psychology, and epidemiology studies and so forth. In particular, with the advent of the big data era, the issue of high-dimensional mediators is becoming more prevalent. In neuroscience, with the widespread application of magnetic resonance technology in the field of brain imaging, studies on image being a mediator emerged. In this study, a novel causal mediation analysis method with a three-dimensional image mediator is proposed. We define the average casual effects under the potential outcome framework, explore several sufficient conditions for the valid identification, and develop techniques for estimation and inference. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, a series of simulations under various scenarios is performed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a study on the causal effect of mother's delivery mode on child's IQ development. It is found that cesarean section may have a negative effect on intellectual performance and that this effect is mediated by white matter development. Additional prospective and longitudinal studies may be necessary to validate these emerging findings.

Modeling correlated pairs of mammogram images

Mammography remains the primary screening strategy for breast cancer, which continues to be the most prevalent cancer diagnosis among women globally. Because screening mammograms capture both the left and right breast, there is a nonnegligible correlation between the pair of images. Previous studies have explored the concept of averaging between the pair of images after proper image registration; however, no comparison has been made in directly utilizing the paired images. In this paper, we extend the bivariate functional principal component analysis over triangulations to jointly characterize the pair of imaging data bounded in an irregular domain and then nest the extracted features within the survival model to predict the onset of breast cancer. The method is applied to our motivating data from the Joanne Knight Breast Health Cohort at Siteman Cancer Center. Our findings indicate that there was no statistically significant difference in model discrimination performance between averaging the pair of images and jointly modeling the two images. Although the breast cancer study did not reveal any significant difference, it is worth noting that the methods proposed here can be readily extended to other studies involving paired or multivariate imaging data.

Use of an AI Score Combining Cancer Signs, Masking, and Risk to Select Patients for Supplemental Breast Cancer Screening

Background Mammographic density measurements are used to identify patients who should undergo supplemental imaging for breast cancer detection, but artificial intelligence (AI) image analysis may be more effective. Purpose To assess whether AISmartDensity-an AI-based score integrating cancer signs, masking, and risk-surpasses measurements of mammographic density in identifying patients for supplemental breast imaging after a negative screening mammogram. Materials and Methods This retrospective study included randomly selected individuals who underwent screening mammography at Karolinska University Hospital between January 2008 and December 2015. The models in AISmartDensity were trained and validated using nonoverlapping data. The ability of AISmartDensity to identify future cancer in patients with a negative screening mammogram was evaluated and compared with that of mammographic density models. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) were calculated for the top 8% of scores, mimicking the proportion of patients in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System "extremely dense" category. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and was compared using the DeLong test. Results The study population included 65 325 examinations (median patient age, 53 years [IQR, 47-62 years])-64 870 examinations in healthy patients and 455 examinations in patients with breast cancer diagnosed within 3 years of a negative screening mammogram. The AUC for detecting subsequent cancers was 0.72 and 0.61 (P < .001) for AISmartDensity and the best-performing density model (age-adjusted dense area), respectively. For examinations with scores in the top 8%, AISmartDensity identified 152 of 455 (33%) future cancers with a PPV of 2.91%, whereas the best-performing density model (age-adjusted dense area) identified 57 of 455 (13%) future cancers with a PPV of 1.09% (P < .001). AISmartDensity identified 32% (41 of 130) and 34% (111 of 325) of interval and next-round screen-detected cancers, whereas the best-performing density model (dense area) identified 16% (21 of 130) and 9% (30 of 325), respectively. Conclusion AISmartDensity, integrating cancer signs, masking, and risk, outperformed traditional density models in identifying patients for supplemental imaging after a negative screening mammogram. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Kim and Chang in this issue.