Global trends in melanoma mortality differ by sex and age

Development and validation of a nomogram for elderly patients with ulcerative melanoma

The current state of survival prediction models for elderly patients with ulcerative melanoma (uCM) is limited. We sought to develop a nomogram model that can predict overall survival of geriatric patients with uCM. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database served as a source for patients diagnosed with uCM between 2004 and 2015. Statistical analyses were conducted to determine the significant prognostic elements affecting overall survival using multivariate and univariate Cox proportional risk regression models. Subsequently, an independent forecasting nomogram was developed on the basis of these identified predictors. The predictive model was then assessed and validated through the utilization of receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves as well as decision curves. The study included a total of 5019 participants. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed age, sex, marital status, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, histological type, and surgery were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed using the findings from both univariate and multivariate Cox analyses ( P  < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curves, which vary over time, and the area under the curve (AUC) for the training and validation cohorts, demonstrated the nomogram's strong discriminatory ability. Additionally, the calibration curves indicated satisfactory agreement between the predicted values from the nomogram and the practical outcomes observed in both cohorts. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis curves displayed favorable positive net gains at all times, when the critical value is most likely to occur. In this study, age, sex, marital status, primary site, tumor size, N stage, M stage, histologic type and surgery were determined as independent predictors for elderly patients with uCM. Then, a predictive model with good discriminatory ability was constructed to predict 12-, 24-, and 36-month overall survival in geriatric patients with uCM, which facilitates patients' counseling and individualized medical decision.

Sentinel lymph node biopsy is unreliable in predicting melanoma mortality for both younger and older patients

BACKGROUND

Melanoma disease patterns vary with patient age.

AIM

To evaluate sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) in managing melanoma at differing patient ages.

METHODS

Online prediction tools were applied to compare SLNB positivity (SLNB+) and survival risk at patient ages 20-80. Tübingen melanoma data were used to determine variations in the hazard ratio of SLNB+ for mortality at different patient ages.

RESULTS

Regardless of tumour thickness, predicted SLNB+ rates were markedly higher than mortality rates for 20-year-old patients. For 80-year-old patients, it is the opposite.

DISCUSSION

If 1000 20-year-olds with a 0.4 mm thickness non-ulcerated melanoma underwent SLNB, 100 would likely be positive. If all 100 were to be offered adjuvant drug therapy (ADT), fewer than three more melanoma deaths in those 1000 patients would be avoided. In total, 97 patients would have received medication they may never have needed. If 1000 80-year-olds with a 3 mm thickness non-ulcerated melanoma underwent SLNB, only 40 would likely be positive. In total, 274 patients would be predicted to die of melanoma, 245 being SLNB negative and 29 SLNB+. ADT linked to SLNB+ could deny treatment to 89% of these high-risk patients.

LIMITATIONS

The authors relied on published risk data.

CONCLUSION

SLNB has poor specificity at predicting mortality in young melanoma patients and poor sensitivity in older patients. SLNB is not indicated in managing cutaneous melanoma for patients under 40 or over 60 years of age. Many such patients could be managed with wide local excision alone in their clinician's office-based practice. For all cutaneous melanoma patients at all ages, linking ADT to BAUSSS biomarker, (an algorithm of Breslow thickness, age, ulceration, subtype, sex and Site) rather than SLNB+ is likely more appropriate. BAUSSS provides a more accurate melanoma-specific mortality risk assessment for patients without burdening them with added surgery, hospitalization, costs or morbidity risk.

Enhanced Apoptosis and Loss of Cell Viability in Melanoma Cells by Combined Inhibition of ERK and Mcl-1 Is Related to Loss of Mitochondrial Membrane Potential, Caspase Activation and Upregulation of Proapoptotic Bcl-2 Proteins

Targeting of MAP kinase pathways by BRAF inhibitors has evolved as a key therapy for BRAF-mutated melanoma. However, it cannot be applied for BRAF-WT melanoma, and also, in BRAF-mutated melanoma, tumor relapse often follows after an initial phase of tumor regression. Inhibition of MAP kinase pathways downstream at ERK1/2, or inhibitors of antiapoptotic Bcl-2 proteins, such as Mcl-1, may serve as alternative strategies. As shown here, the BRAF inhibitor vemurafenib and the ERK inhibitor SCH772984 showed only limited efficacy in melanoma cell lines, when applied alone. However, in combination with the Mcl-1 inhibitor S63845, the effects of vemurafenib were strongly enhanced in BRAF-mutated cell lines, and the effects of SCH772984 were enhanced in both BRAF-mutated and BRAF-WT cells. This resulted in up to 90% loss of cell viability and cell proliferation, as well as in induction of apoptosis in up to 60% of cells. The combination of SCH772984/S63845 resulted in caspase activation, processing of poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP), phosphorylation of histone H2AX, loss of mitochondrial membrane potential, and cytochrome c release. Proving the critical role of caspases, a pan-caspase inhibitor suppressed apoptosis induction, as well as loss of cell viability. As concerning Bcl-2 family proteins, SCH772984 enhanced expression of the proapoptotic Bim and Puma, as well as decreased phosphorylation of Bad. The combination finally resulted in downregulation of antiapoptotic Bcl-2 and enhanced expression of the proapoptotic Noxa. In conclusion, combined inhibition of ERK and Mcl-1 revealed an impressive efficacy both in BRAF-mutated and WT melanoma cells, and may thus represent a new strategy for overcoming drug resistance.