Identification of seasonal variation in the diagnosis of acute myeloid leukaemia: a population-based study

No evidence for seasonal variations of the incidence of testicular germ cell tumours in Germany

The pathogenesis of testicular germ cell tumours (GCTs) is still incompletely understood. Any progress in its understanding must derive from observational studies. Recently, it has been suggested that the incidence of GCTs may follow a seasonal pattern based on circannual changes in the Vitamin D serum levels, with maximum incidence rates in winter months. To examine this promising hypothesis, we studied monthly incidence rates of testicular GCTs in Germany by analysing 30,988 GCT cases aged 15-69 years, diagnosed during 2009-2019. Monthly incident case numbers with data regarding histology and patient age were obtained from the Robert Koch Institut, Berlin, along with annual male population counts. We used precision weighting for deriving pooled monthly incidence rates for GCTs of the period 2009-2019. We stratified pooled rates by histology (seminoma and nonseminoma) and age (15-39 and 40-69 years). By assuming a cyclical effect, we used an estimator of the intensity of seasonal occurrence and report seasonal relative risks (RR). The mean monthly incidence rate was 11.93/105 person-months. The seasonal RR for testicular cancer over-all is 1.022 (95% CI 1.000-1.054). The highest seasonal RR was found in the subgroup of nonseminoma aged 15-39 years, with a RR 1.044 (95% CI 1.000-1.112). The comparison of the pooled monthly rates of the winter months (October-March) with the summer months (April-September) revealed a maximum relative difference of 5% (95% CI 1-10%) for nonseminoma, aged 15-39 years. We conclude that there is no evidence of a seasonal variation of incidence rates of testicular cancer. Our results are at odds with an Austrian study, but the present data appear sound because the results were obtained with precision weighted monthly incidence rates in a large population of GCT cases.

The Contrasting Seasonality Patterns of Some Cancer-Types and Herpes Zoster Can Be Explained by a Binary Classification of Immunological Reactions

A binary classification of the pathogenic immune reactions as anti-inflammatory high-Treg reactions or pro-inflammatory low-Treg reactions explains both the relatively low incidence rate of several types of cancer, and the relatively high incidence rate of herpes zoster cases diagnosed in the summer compared to cases diagnosed in the winter (in regions with temperate climate). This binary model also elucidates the longer survival of cancer patients diagnosed during the summer compared to these diagnosed in the winter. The three key elements of this explanation are: (a) the effect of sunlight on Treg production; (b) the evolvement of cancer from a low-Treg condition at early stage, to a high-Treg condition at advanced stage, and (c) the evolvement of herpes zoster from a high-Treg condition at pre-exudative stage to a low-Treg condition at acute exudative stage. A significant proportion of indolent tumors at the time of diagnosis (>20%) is a prerequisite for a beneficial effect of sunlight on cancer incidence rate and prognosis. This prerequisite restricts the beneficial effect of diagnosis during summer to certain types of cancer. Clinical implication: the prognosis of early stage tumors may be improved by a course of corticosteroid (or other immunosuppressant) treatment.

Comparison of scoring systems evaluating suitability for intensive chemotherapy in adults with acute myeloid leukemia-a Grand Ouest Against Leukemia (GOAL) study

Several scoring systems have been developed to assess suitability of individual patients for intensive acute myeloid leukemia (AML) therapy. We sought to compare the performance of these scores in a cohort of 428 consecutive adults with AML who received conventional induction chemotherapy in five academic centers in France. All scoring systems identified a subset of patients with increased 28 and 56-day mortality although the prediction accuracy was overall limited with C-statistics of ranging from 0.61 to 0.71 Overall survival (OS) prediction was more limited and restricted to scoring systems that include AML-related parameters. The outcome of 104 patients (24%) considered unsuitable for intensive chemotherapy based on criteria used in recent randomized trials was similar to that of the other 324 patients (28-day mortality, odds ratio [OR] = 1.88, P = 0.2; 56-day mortality, OR = 1.71, P = 0.21; event-free survival, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.08, P = 0.6; OS, HR = 1.25, P = 0.14) with low discrimination (C-statistic: 0.57, 0.56, 0.50, and 0.52 for 28-day, 56-day mortality, EFS, and OS, respectively). Together, our findings indicate that the accuracy of currently available approaches to identify patients at increased risk of early mortality and shortened survival after intensive AML therapy is relatively limited. Caution regarding the use of available scoring systems should be warranted in clinical decision-making.