External validation of preoperative and postoperative nomograms for prediction of cancer-specific survival, overall survival and recurrence after robot-assisted radical cystectomy for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival for T1 High-Grade Patients After Radical Cystectomy: A Study Based on SEER

Objective

To construct a prognostic model that estimates the probability of overall survival for T1 high-grade bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy.

Patients and Methods

We enrolled 801 patients diagnosed with T1 high grade and received radical cystectomy from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004–2015). All patients were randomly divided into the development group (n = 561) and validation group (n = 240) with the ratio of 7:3. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to filter variables and the Kaplan–Meier method to evaluate survival outcomes. The results of sensitivity analysis determined the variables in the final model. The performance of the model was internally validated by calibration curves, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the concordance index (C-index).

Results

The mean survival months were 56.086 in the development group and 58.21 in the validation group. Six variables including age, marital status, tumour size, tumour sites, region nodes examined, and N stage were incorporated in the final nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram for prediction of overall survival was estimated by C-index (0.732; 0.712–0.752) and AUC (0.771 for 3-year; 0.766 for 5-year) in the development group. In the validation group, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.752 (0.723–0.781), and AUC was 0.761 for 3-year as well as 0.793 for 5-year. These results all showed better performance than the AJCC stage. Calibration plots for 3- and 5-year overall survival presented good concordance in both the development and validation group.

Conclusion

We have established a prognostic nomogram that provides a more accurate and relevant individualized probability of overall survival for patients with T1HG bladder transitional cell carcinoma after radical cystectomy. It can contribute to improving patient counselling and treatment selection.

Refining neoadjuvant therapy clinical trial design for muscle-invasive bladder cancer before cystectomy: a joint US Food and Drug Administration and Bladder Cancer Advocacy Network workshop

The success of the use of novel therapies in the treatment of advanced urothelial carcinoma has contributed to growing interest in evaluating these therapies at earlier stages of the disease. However, trials evaluating these therapies in the neoadjuvant setting must have clearly defined study elements and appropriately selected end points to ensure the applicability of the trial and enable interpretation of the study results. To advance the development of rational trial design, a public workshop jointly sponsored by the US Food and Drug Administration and the Bladder Cancer Advocacy Network convened in August 2019. Clinicians, clinical trialists, radiologists, biostatisticians, patients, advocates and other stakeholders discussed key elements and end points when designing trials of neoadjuvant therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), identifying opportunities to refine eligibility, design and end points for neoadjuvant trials in MIBC. Although pathological complete response (pCR) is already being used as a co-primary end point, both individual-level and trial-level surrogacy for time-to-event end points, such as event-free survival or overall survival, remain incompletely characterized in MIBC. Additionally, use of pCR is limited by heterogeneity in pathological evaluation and the fact that the magnitude of pCR improvement that might translate into a meaningful clinical benefit remains unclear. Given existing knowledge gaps, capture of highly granular patient-related, tumour-related and treatment-related characteristics in the current generation of neoadjuvant MIBC trials will be critical to informing the design of future trials.

Identification of Lymph Node Metastasis-Related Key Genes and Prognostic Risk Model in Bladder Cancer by Co-Expression Analysis

Background: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is an important pathological characteristic of bladder cancer (BCa). However, the molecular mechanism underlying LNM was not thoroughly elaborated. Identification for LNM-related biomarkers may contribute to making suitable therapies. So, the current study was aimed to identify key genes and construct a prognostic signature. Methods: Based on the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, gene expression and clinical information were obtained. Then, the weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to identify the key modules and hub genes. A function analysis and a gene set enrichment analysis were applied to explore biological functions and pathways of interested genes. Furthermore, a prognostic model based on LNM-related genes was constructed by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis. Results: Finally, nine co-expression modules were constructed, and two modules (turquoise and green) were significantly associated with LNM. Three hub genes were identified as DACT3, TNS1, and MSRB3, which were annotated in actin binding, actin cytoskeleton, adaptive immune response, and cell adhesion molecular binding by the GSEA method. Further analysis demonstrated that three hub genes were associated with the overall survival of BCa patients. In addition, we built a prognostic signature based on the genes from LNM-related modules and evaluated the prognostic value of this signature. Conclusion: In general, this study revealed the key genes related to LNM and prognostic signature, which might provide new insights into therapeutic target of BCa.

Trends of incidence and prognosis of primary adenocarcinoma of the bladder

BACKGROUND

Primary adenocarcinoma of the bladder (ACB) is a rare malignant tumor of the bladder with limited understanding of its incidence and prognosis.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with ACB between 2004 and 2015 were obtained from the SEER database. The incidence changes of ACB patients between 1975 and 2016 were detected by Joinpoint software. Nomograms were constructed based on the results of multivariate Cox regression analysis to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with ACB, and the constructed nomograms were validated.

RESULTS

The incidence of ACB was trending down from 1991 to 2016. A total of 1039 patients were included in the study and randomly assigned to the training cohort (727) and validation cohort (312). In the training cohort, multivariate Cox regression showed that age, marital status, primary site, histology type, grade, AJCC stage, T stage, SEER stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for OS, whereas these were age, marital status, primary site, histology type, grade, AJCC stage, T/N stage, SEER stage, surgery, and radiotherapy for CSS. Based on the above Cox regression results, we constructed prognostic nomograms for OS and CSS in ACB patients. The C-index of the nomogram OS was 0.773 and the C-index of CSS was 0.785, which was significantly better than the C-index of the TNM staging prediction model. The area under the curve (AUC) and net benefit of the prediction model were higher than those of the TNM staging system. In addition, the calibration curves were very close to the ideal curve, suggesting appreciable reliability of the nomograms.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of ACB patients showed a decreasing trend in the past 25 years. We constructed a clinically useful prognostic nomogram for calculating OS and CSS of ACB patients, which can provide a personalized risk assessment for ACB patient survival.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival after radical cystectomy in patients with bladder cancer:A population-based study

Purpose

To establish a prognostic model to estimate the cancer‐specific survival (CSS) for urothelial carcinoma of bladder (UCB) patients after radical cystectomy (RC).

Methods

A total of 8650 candidates (2004–2011) obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were randomly split into development cohort (n = 4323) and validation cohort (n = 4327). We performed Cox regression analysis to identify prognostic factors and Kaplan‐Meier analysis to assess survival outcome. A nomogram predicting CSS was constructed. Its performance was validated by calibration curves, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, concordance index (C‐index), decision curve analysis (DCA), the net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

The nomogram incorporated marital status, T stage, N stage, tumor size, and chemotherapy. In validation cohort, C‐index of the nomogram was 0.707. AUC of the nomogram and AJCC stage were 0.767 versus 0.674. Calibration plots for 3‐ and 5‐year CSS displayed good concordance. DCA curves of the nomogram exhibited larger benefits than the AJCC stage. The NRI and IDI indicated the nomogram outperformed AJCC stage.

Conclusions

We have established a prognostic nomogram with improved discriminative ability and clinical benefits for UCB patients after RC. The nomogram alongside an easy access web tool may assist clinicians in optimizing the postoperative management.

Application of nomograms in the prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with T1 high-grade bladder cancer

To predict survival outcomes for individual patients with clinical T1 high-grade (T1HG) bladder cancer (BC), data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed in the present study. The data of 6,980 cases of T1HG BC between 2004 and 2014 were obtained from the SEER database. Uni- and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors. Subsequently, prognostic nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were constructed based on the SEER database. Clinical information from the SEER database was divided into internal and external groups and used to validate the nomograms. In addition, calibration plot diagrams and concordance indices (C-indices) were used to verify the predictive performance of the nomogram. A total of 6,980 patients were randomly allocated to the training cohort (n=4,886) or the validation cohort (n=2094). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses indicated that age, ethnicity, tumor size, marital status, radiation and surgical status were independent prognostic factors. These characteristics were used to establish nomograms. The C-indices for OS and CSS rate predictions for the training cohort were 0.707 (95% CI, 0.693–0.721) and 0.700 (95% CI, 0.679–0.721), respectively. Internal and external calibration plot diagrams exhibited an excellent consistency between actual survival rates and nomogram predictions, particularly for 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The significant prognostic factors in patients with T1HG BC were age, ethnicity, marital status, tumor size, status of surgery and use of radiation. In the present study, a nomogram was developed that may serve as an effective and convenient evaluation tool to help surgeons perform individualized survival evaluations and mortality risk determination for patients with T1HG BC.

Current status and future perspective of robot-assisted radical cystectomy for invasive bladder cancer

The current status of robot-assisted radical cystectomy was reviewed 16 years after the initial robot-assisted radical cystectomy for the treatment of invasive bladder cancer. Articles associated with robot-assisted radical cystectomy and written in English were selected from the PubMed database from January 2003 to February 2019. The present review article focused on the distribution of robot-assisted radical cystectomy, patient selection, preoperative management, surgical technique, lymph node dissection, urinary diversion, recurrence pattern, oncological outcomes, cost, learning curve, complications and educational programs. A total of 400 articles were divided according to the country of the first author's affiliation. The USA was the most dominant at 198 (50%), whereas the number of articles from the countries belonging to the Urological Association of Asia was 15 (3.8%) for China, 17 (4.3%) for South Korea, 10 (2.5%) for Japan, eight (2%) for Taiwan, eight (2%) for Turkey and one (0.2%) for Iran. The percentage of robot-assisted radical cystectomy carried out is increasing, and intracorporeal urinary diversion and ileal neobladder are also frequently carried out. With a refined technique being performed in high-volume centers, robot-assisted radical cystectomy has contributed to the reduction in transfusion rate, length of stay and severe complications; however, it has not yet shown any cancer-specific survival benefits. Robot-assisted radical cystectomy is not fully spread throughout the Urological Association of Asia. Further investigation with respect to worldwide results is needed to prove the real benefit of robot-assisted radical cystectomy regarding low morbidity, reduced total medical cost, and survival benefit. In the era of precision medicine, appropriate drug and surgery will be given based on each genetic profile.

Nomograms to Predict Individual Prognosis of Patients with Primary Small Cell Carcinoma of the Bladder

Objectives: To develop reliable nomograms to estimate individualized overall survival (OS) and cancer specific survival (CSS) for patients with primary small cell carcinoma of the bladder (SCCB) and compare the predictive value with the AJCC stages.

Patients and Methods: 582 eligible SCCB patients identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) dataset were randomly divided into training (n=482) and validation (n=100) cohorts. Akaike information criterion was used to select the clinically important variables in multivariate Cox models when establishing nomograms. The performance of nomograms was bootstrapped validated internally and externally using the concordance index (C-index) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and calibration curves and was compared with that of the AJCC stages using C-index, Kaplan-Meier curves and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Two nomograms shared common indicators including age, tumor size, T stage, lymph node ratio, metastases, chemotherapy, radiation and radical cystectomy, while marriage and gender were only incorporated in the OS nomogram. The C-indices of nomograms for OS and CSS were 0.736 (95%CI 0.711-0.761) and 0.731(95%CI 0.704-0.758), respectively, indicating considerable predictive accuracy. Calibration curves showed consistency between the nomograms and the actual observation. The results remained reproducible when nomograms were applied to the validation cohort. Additionally, comparisons between C-indices, Kaplan-Meier curves and DCA proved that the nomograms obtained obvious superiority over the AJCC stages with wide practical threshold probabilities.

Conclusions: We proposed the first two nomograms for individualized prediction of OS and CSS in SCCB patients with satisfactory predictive accuracy, good robustness and wide applicability.

Oncologic Outcomes and Predictive Factors for Recurrence Following Robot-Assisted Radical Cystectomy for Urothelial Carcinoma: Multicenter Study from Korea

The aim of our study was to evaluate intermediate-term oncologic outcomes, predictive factors for recurrence, and recurrence patterns in a multicenter series of patients treated with robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC) for urothelial carcinoma (UC) of the bladder. Between 2007 and 2015, 346 patients underwent RARC at multiple tertiary referral centers in Korea. Descriptive statistics were used for demographics and perioperative variables. Survival and recurrence were estimated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. Logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of recurrence. Median follow-up was 33 months (interquartile range [IQR], 7-50). The numbers of patients with organ-confined and lymph node (LN)-positive disease were 237 (68.4%) and 68 (19.7%), respectively. LN density (1-20 vs. > 20) was 13.6% and 6.1%, with a median of 17 nodes removed (IQR, 9-23). In logistic regression analysis, type of LN dissection, and pathologic tumor stage were significant predictors of cancer recurrence and death from cancer. Local, distal recurrence and secondary UC occurred in 7 (2.0%), 53 (15.3%), and 4 (1.2%) patients, respectively. The 5-year overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were 78%, 84%, and 73%, respectively. At last follow-up, RFS for extended pelvic LN dissection vs. standard pelvic LN dissection was 70% and 47% (P = 0.038). In addition, at last follow-up, LN density (0 vs. 1-20 vs. over 20) was 67%, 41%, and 29%, respectively (P < 0.001). Patients undergoing RARC in this multi-institutional cohort demonstrated intermediate-term oncologic outcomes, predictive factors for recurrence, and recurrence patterns that were not unusual.

A prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer liver metastases after percutaneous thermal ablation

PURPOSE

To assess the efficacy of percutaneous thermal ablation in treating colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRCLM), and to propose a prognostic nomogram for overall survival (OS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Seventy-one patients with CRCLM undergoing thermal ablation at our institute from 2009 to 2013 were identified and analysed to formulate a prognostic nomogram. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were calculated to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared with two current prognostic nomograms for patients with CRCLM who had undergone hepatectomy (Kattan) and selective internal radiation therapy (Fendler). Predictive validity was assessed in the validation cohort of 25 patients who had undergone thermal ablation from 2014 to 2016.

RESULTS

The median OS in the primary cohort was 26.4 months, whereas the 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 72.2%, 37.2% and 17%, respectively. The median progression-free survival was 4.2 months. After univariate and multivariate analysis, a prognostic nomogram was formulated based on four predictors, including the number of tumours, maximum diameter of the tumour, CA19-9 level and ablation margin. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.815. Based on the patients of this study, the C-index was significantly higher than that of the Fendler nomogram (C-index, 0.698) and Kattan nomogram (C-index, 0.514, p < 0.001). Predictive accuracy of the proposed nomogram was also satisfactory in the validation cohort, with a C-index of 0.884.

CONCLUSIONS

Thermal ablation was an effective therapy for CRCLM. Moreover, the nomogram was effective and simple for CRCLM patients undergoing thermal ablation.

A nomogram predicting the cancer-specific mortality in patients eligible for radical cystectomy evaluating clinical data and neoadjuvant cisplatinum-based chemotherapy

PURPOSE

Despite the increasing number of studies confirming the importance of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NC) in patients before radical cystectomy (RC) for bladder cancer (BCa), NC remains underused. The aim of our study was to develop a nomogram predicting the cancer-specific mortality (CSM) of patients who underwent RC for transitional BCa, evaluating the available clinical information and the NC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We identified 423 patients who underwent RC and pelvic lymph node dissection, treated or not with NC, in two European high-volume centers between 2007 and 2013. Chi-square and Student's t tests were used to evaluate differences between groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to assess time to cancer-specific (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Uni- (UVA) and multivariable (MVA) Cox regression analyses were developed to address predictors of CSS and OS. A nomogram based on the Cox regression coefficient was developed to show the impact of NC on CSM.

RESULTS

Mean follow-up was 20.3 months. Our population had mainly pT2 disease (77.1%), and 19.4% had preoperative cisplatinum-based NC. NC showed better CSS at UVA (p = 0.014) and MVA (odds ratio: 0.44; p = 0.043). Overall, the 3-year OS and the CSS rate were 69.3 and 79%, respectively. The nomogram developed to predict the 36-month CSM showed predictive accuracy of 67%.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed the first nomogram predicting the 36-month CSM rate in patients with high-risk BCa according to the clinical data. Moreover, we demonstrate that preoperative cisplatinum-based chemotherapy is associated with better CSS.