Modelling mangrove propagule dispersal trajectories using high-resolution estimates of ocean surface winds and currents

Global potential distribution of mangroves: Taking into account salt marsh interactions along latitudinal gradients

Mangrove is one of the most productive and sensitive ecosystems in the world. Due to the complexity and specificity of mangrove habitat, the development of mangrove is regulated by several factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are effective tools to identify the potential habitats for establishing and regenerating the ecosystem. Such models usually include exclusively environmental factors. Nevertheless, recent studies have challenged this notion and highlight the importance of including biotic interactions. Both factors are necessary for a mechanistic understanding of the mangrove distribution in order to promote the protection and restoration of mangroves. Thus, we present a novel approach of combining environmental factors and interactions with salt marsh for projecting mangrove distributions at the global level and within latitudinal zones. To test the salt marsh interaction, we fit the MaxEnt model with two predicting sets: (1) environments only and (2) environments + salt marsh interaction index (SII). We found that both sets of models had good predictive ability, although the SII improved model performance slightly. Potential distribution areas of mangrove decrease with latitudes, and are controlled by biotic and abiotic factors. Temperature, precipitation and wind speed are generally critical at both global scale and ecotones along latitudes. SII is important on global scale, with a contribution of 5.9%, ranking 6th, and is particularly critical in the 10-30°S and 20-30°N zone. Interactions with salt marsh, including facilitation and competition, are shown to affect the distribution of mangroves at the zone of coastal ecotone, especially in the latitudinal range from 10° - 30°. The contribution of SII to mangrove distribution increases with latitudes due to the difference in the adaptive capacity of salt marsh plants and mangroves to environments. Totally, this study identified and quantified the effects of salt marsh on mangrove distribution by establishing the SII. The results not only facilitate to establish a more accurate mangrove distribution map, but also improve the efficiency of mangrove restoration by considering the salt marsh interaction in the mangrove management projects. In addition, the method of incorporating biotic interaction into SDMs through establish the biotic interaction index has contributed to the development of SDMs.

Oceanographic connectivity explains the intra-specific diversity of mangrove forests at global scales

The distribution of mangrove intra-specific biodiversity can be structured by historical demographic processes that enhance or limit effective population sizes. Oceanographic connectivity (OC) may further structure intra-specific biodiversity by preserving or diluting the genetic signatures of historical changes. Despite its relevance for biogeography and evolution, the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring the distribution of mangrove's genetic diversity has not been addressed at global scale. Here we ask whether connectivity mediated by ocean currents explains the intra-specific diversity of mangroves. A comprehensive dataset of population genetic differentiation was compiled from the literature. Multigenerational connectivity and population centrality indices were estimated with biophysical modeling coupled with network analyses. The variability explained in genetic differentiation was tested with competitive regression models built upon classical isolation-by-distance (IBD) models considering geographic distance. We show that oceanographic connectivity can explain the genetic differentiation of mangrove populations regardless of the species, region, and genetic marker (significant regression models in 95% of cases, with an average R-square of 0.44 ± 0.23 and Person's correlation of 0.65 ± 0.17), systematically improving IBD models. Centrality indices, providing information on important stepping-stone sites between biogeographic regions, were also important in explaining differentiation (R-square improvement of 0.06 ± 0.07, up to 0.42). We further show that ocean currents produce skewed dispersal kernels for mangroves, highlighting the role of rare long-distance dispersal events responsible for historical settlements. Overall, we demonstrate the role of oceanographic connectivity in structuring mangrove intra-specific diversity. Our findings are critical for mangroves' biogeography and evolution, but also for management strategies considering climate change and genetic biodiversity conservation.

Nature-based solutions on floodplain restoration with coupled propagule dispersal simulation and stepping-stone approach to predict mangrove encroachment in an estuary

The mangrove ecosystem is significantly affected by human activities, climate change, and rising sea level. The propagules of mangroves dispersal with tide and river currents that extend upstream habitats are why mangroves are the dominant species in the tidal area. Bridging critical knowledge gaps can help to create restoration plans for mangrove extension. However, studies on the hydrodynamic and propagation trajectory model (PTM) simulation of propagule long-distance dispersal (LDD) and mangrove growth potential are scarce. By combining various numerical methods and empirical formulas and verifying them with the data obtained through field surveys, this study established a comprehensive model to assess the dispersal and growth of the propagules of Kandelia ovobata. The stepping-stone approach (SSA) and habitat suitability index (HSI) model were also employed to determine the location of the appropriate new habitats through iterative simulation in propagule dispersal. Dike removal was proposed as a nature-based solution and modeled to evaluate the benefits of ecological conservation and flood prevention. The PTM simulations indicated that the deterministic process of horizontal advection accounted for >80 %, and that the remaining variability in the model could be explained by stochastic processes in predicting mangrove propagules pathways. The integrated model of the PTM and SSA proved that propagules have LDD in an estuary. There were few matches in the regions for mangrove growth when comparing the suitability of habitat distribution and the probability of propagule movement. We suggested that the mangrove spread model incorporating the SSA and HSI models predict the potential for mangrove dispersal into new habitats. In addition, the removal of levees aids floodplain regeneration and allows propagules to disperse across the floodplain at high tide and establishment at low tide. The Guandu floodplain restoration with dike removal supplied a cobenefits on ecological demands and flood risk reduction. Future research could thus utilize the adaptation and mitigation strategies presented in this study by incorporating socioeconomic considerations to enhance practical feasibility.

Genotypes of Rhizophora Propagules From a Non-mangrove Beach Provide Evidence of Recent Long-Distance Dispersal

Dispersal plays a crucial role in the connectivity of established mangrove populations and in species range dynamics. As species ranges shift in response to climate change, range expansions can occur from incremental short-distance dispersal events and from stochastic long-distance dispersal events. Most population genetic research dealt with historically accumulated events though evidence of actual propagule dispersal allows to estimate genotypic features and origin of founders. In this study, we aim to disentangle a contemporary dispersal event. Using microsatellite markers, we genotyped 60 Rhizophora racemosa drift propagules obtained on a bare unforested coastal area in southern Cameroon, estimated their relationship to 109 adult trees from most proximate sites (which were 3–85 km away), and assessed their relative difference with 873 trees of major mangrove areas (> 300 km) along the Cameroonian coastline. Proximate mangrove populations were considered as potential source populations in assignment tests. However, drift propagules could not be assigned to any of the Cameroonian mangrove sites and were genetically isolated from Cameroonian populations. Drift propagules showed higher levels of genetic diversity and private alleles giving a higher relatedness to each other than to any putative source population. Chloroplast sequences were used to confirm the identity of drift propagules as R. racemosa. We postulate that a complex interaction of ocean currents, estuarine geomorphology, and tidal patterns explain drift propagule dispersal to an area. Most likely the investigated cohort of propagules originated from more southern mangrove areas of the West African range beyond the Cameroonian border. This study unraveled the allelic, genetic, and genotypic features of stranded propagules following a stochastic long-distance dispersal. Transboundary dispersal of these propagules highlights the need for intergovernmental efforts in the management of biodiversity.

Ocean Currents Drove Genetic Structure of Seven Dominant Mangrove Species Along the Coastlines of Southern China

Mangrove forest ecosystems, which provide important ecological services for marine environments and human activities, are being destroyed worldwide at an alarming rate. The objective of our study was to use molecular data and analytical techniques to separate the effects of historical and contemporary processes on the distribution of mangroves and patterns of population genetic differentiation. Seven mangrove species (Acanthus ilicifolius, Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia marina, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Kandelia obovata, Lumnitzera racemosa, and Rhizophora stylosa), which are predominant along the coastlines of South China, were genotyped at nuclear (nSSR) and chloroplast (cpSSR) microsatellite markers. We estimated historical and contemporary gene flow, the genetic diversity and population structure of seven mangrove species in China. All of these seven species exhibited few haplotypes, low levels of genetic diversity (H E = 0.160-0.361, with the exception of K. obovata) and high levels of inbreeding (F IS = 0.104-0.637), which may be due to their marginal geographical distribution, human-driven and natural stressors on habitat loss and fragmentation. The distribution patterns of haplotypes and population genetic structures of seven mangrove species in China suggest historical connectivity between populations over a large geographic area. In contrast, significant genetic differentiation [F ST = 0.165-0.629 (nSSR); G ST = 0.173-0.923 (cpSSR)] indicates that populations of mangroves are isolated from one another with low levels of contemporary gene flow among populations. Our results suggest that populations of mangroves were historically more widely inter-connected and have recently been isolated, likely through a combination of ocean currents and human activities. In addition, genetic admixture in Beibu Gulf populations and populations surrounding Hainan Island and southern mainland China were attributed to asymmetric gene flow along prevailing oceanic currents in China in historical times. Even ocean currents promote genetic exchanges among mangrove populations, which are still unable to offset the effects of natural and anthropogenic fragmentation. The recent isolation and lack of gene flow among populations of mangroves may affect their long-term survival along the coastlines of South China. Our study enhances the understanding of oceanic currents contributing to population connectivity, and the effects of anthropogenic and natural habitat fragmentation on mangroves, thereby informing future conservation efforts and seascape genetics toward mangroves.

A general framework for propagule dispersal in mangroves

Dispersal allows species to shift their distributions in response to changing climate conditions. As a result, dispersal is considered a key process contributing to a species' long-term persistence. For many passive dispersers, fluid dynamics of wind and water fuel these movements and different species have developed remarkable adaptations for utilizing this energy to reach and colonize suitable habitats. The seafaring propagules (fruits and seeds) of mangroves represent an excellent example of such passive dispersal. Mangroves are halophytic woody plants that grow in the intertidal zones along tropical and subtropical shorelines and produce hydrochorous propagules with high dispersal potential. This results in exceptionally large coastal ranges across vast expanses of ocean and allows species to shift geographically and track the conditions to which they are adapted. This is particularly relevant given the challenges presented by rapid sea-level rise, higher frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in regional precipitation and temperature regimes. However, despite its importance, the underlying drivers of mangrove dispersal have typically been studied in isolation, and a conceptual synthesis of mangrove oceanic dispersal across spatial scales is lacking. Here, we review current knowledge on mangrove propagule dispersal across the various stages of the dispersal process. Using a general framework, we outline the mechanisms and ecological processes that are known to modulate the spatial patterns of mangrove dispersal. We show that important dispersal factors remain understudied and that adequate empirical data on the determinants of dispersal are missing for most mangrove species. This review particularly aims to provide a baseline for developing future research agendas and field campaigns, filling current knowledge gaps and increasing our understanding of the processes that shape global mangrove distributions.

Global-scale dispersal and connectivity in mangroves

Mangroves are of considerable ecological and socioeconomical importance; however, substantial areal losses have been recorded in many regions, driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances and sea level rise. Oceanic dispersal of mangrove propagules provides a key mechanism for shifting distributions in response to environmental change. Here we provide a model framework for describing global dispersal and connectivity in mangroves. We identify important dispersal routes, barriers, and stepping-stones and quantify the influence of minimum and maximum floating periods on simulated connectivity patterns. Our study provides a baseline to improve our understanding of observed mangrove species distributions and, in combination with climate data, the expected range shifts under climate change.

Dispersal provides a key mechanism for geographical range shifts in response to changing environmental conditions. For mangroves, which are highly susceptible to climate change, the spatial scale of dispersal remains largely unknown. Here we use a high-resolution, eddy- and tide-resolving numerical ocean model to simulate mangrove propagule dispersal across the global ocean and generate connectivity matrices between mangrove habitats using a range of floating periods. We find high rates of along-coast transport and transoceanic dispersal across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. No connectivity is observed between populations on either side of the American and African continents. Archipelagos, such as the Galapagos and those found in Polynesia, Micronesia, and Melanesia, act as critical stepping-stones for dispersal across the Pacific Ocean. Direct and reciprocal dispersal routes across the Indian Ocean via the South Equatorial Current and seasonally reversing monsoon currents, respectively, allow connectivity between western Indian Ocean and Indo-West Pacific sites. We demonstrate the isolation of the Hawaii Islands and help explain the presence of mangroves on the latitudinal outlier Bermuda. Finally, we find that dispersal distance and connectivity are highly sensitive to the minimum and maximum floating periods. We anticipate that our findings will guide future research agendas to quantify biophysical factors that determine mangrove dispersal and connectivity, including the influence of ocean surface water properties on metabolic processes and buoyancy behavior, which may determine the potential of viably reaching a suitable habitat. Ultimately, this will lead to a better understanding of global mangrove species distributions and their response to changing climate conditions.

Short-distance barriers affect genetic variability of Rhizophora mangle L. in the Yucatan Peninsula

The environmental variability at local scale results in different physiognomic types of mangrove forest. However, this variability has never been considered in studies of mangrove genetic variability. This study analyzed the genetic and morphological variability and structure of Rhizophora mangle at regional and local scales in the Yucatan Peninsula. Thirteen mangrove populations (eight scrub and five tall), located in seven sites, were sampled, and their morphological variability and relationship with the availability of phosphorus and salinity were analyzed. The diversity and genetic structure were estimated at different hierarchical levels with nine microsatellites, also Bayesian inference and Principal Coordinates Analysis were used. We found a great morphological variability of R. mangle that responded to local environmental variability and not to the precipitation gradient of the peninsula. The genetic diversity found in the peninsula was greater than that reported for other populations in Mexico and was grouped into two regions: the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. At a local scale, tall and scrub mangroves had significant genetic differentiation suggesting that ecological barriers promote genetic differentiation within sites. These results need to be considered in future population genetic studies and for mangrove management and conservation.