Habitat use of and threats to African large carnivores in a mixed-use landscape

Leopard density and the ecological and anthropogenic factors influencing density in a mixed-use landscape in the Western Cape, South Africa

Large carnivores face numerous threats, including habitat loss and fragmentation, direct killing, and prey depletion, leading to significant global range and population declines. Despite such threats, leopards (Panthera pardus) persist outside protected areas throughout most of their range, occupying diverse habitat types and land uses, including peri-urban and rural areas. Understanding of leopard population dynamics in mixed-use landscapes is limited, especially in South Africa, where the majority of leopard research has focused on protected areas. We use spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate leopard density across a mixed-use landscape of protected areas, farmland, and urban areas in the Overberg region of the Western Cape, South Africa. Data from 86 paired camera stations provided 221 independent captures of 25 leopards at 50 camera trap stations with a population density estimate of 0.64 leopards per 100 km2 (95% CI: 0.55-0.73). Elevation, terrain ruggedness, and vegetation productivity were important drivers of leopard density in the landscape, being highest on elevated remnants of natural land outside of protected areas. These results are similar to previous research findings in other parts of the Western Cape, where high-lying natural vegetation was shown to serve as both a refuge and a corridor for leopard movement in otherwise transformed landscapes. Given the low leopard density and the prevalence of transformed land intermixed with patches of more suitable leopard habitat, prioritising and preserving connectivity for leopards is vital in this shared landscape. Ecological corridors should be developed in partnership with private landowners through an inclusive and multifaceted conservation strategy which also incorporates monitoring of and rapid mitigation of emerging threats to leopards.

Spatial co-occurrence patterns of sympatric large carnivores in a multi-use African system

Interspecific interactions can be a key driver of habitat use, and must be accounted for in conservation planning. However, spatial partitioning between African carnivores, and how this varies with scale, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, most studies have taken place within small or highly protected areas, rather than in the heterogeneous, mixed-use landscapes characteristic of much of modern Africa. Here, we provide one of the first empirical investigations into population-level competitive interactions among an African large carnivore guild. We collected detection/non-detection data for an eastern African large carnivore guild in Tanzania's Ruaha-Rungwa conservation landscape, over an area of ~45,000 km2. We then applied conditional co-occupancy models to investigate co-occurrence between lion, leopard, and African wild dog, at two biologically meaningful scales. Co-occurrence patterns of cheetah and spotted hyaena could not be modelled. After accounting for habitat and detection effects, we found some evidence of wild dog avoidance of lion at the home range scale, and strong evidence of fine-scale avoidance. We found no evidence of interspecific exclusion of leopard by lion; rather, positive associations were observed at both scales, suggesting shared habitat preferences. We found little evidence of leopard habitat use being affected by wild dog. Our findings also reveal some interspecific effects on species detection, at both scales. In most cases, habitat use was driven more strongly by other habitat effects, such as biotic resources or anthropogenic pressures, than by interspecific pressures, even where evidence of the latter was present. Overall, our results help shed light on interspecific effects within an assemblage that has rarely been examined at this scale. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of sign-based co-occurrence modelling to describe interspecific spatial patterns of sympatric large carnivores across large scales. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for large carnivore conservation in modern African systems.

Habitat use of and threats to African large carnivores in a mixed-use landscape

Large carnivores increasingly inhabit human-affected landscapes, which exhibit heterogeneity in biotic resources, anthropogenic pressures, and management strategies. Understanding large carnivore habitat use in these systems is critical for their conservation, as is the evaluation of competing management approaches and the impacts of significant land-use changes. We used occupancy modeling to investigate habitat use of an intact eastern African large carnivore guild across the 45,000 km² Ruaha-Rungwa landscape in south-central Tanzania. We determined the relative impact on five large carnivore species of biotic, anthropogenic, and management factors at the scales of home range selection and short-term use within home ranges. We also specifically tested the effect of abandonment of trophy hunting areas on large carnivore occurrence. Patterns of habitat use differed among species. Lions (Panthera leo) appeared affected by top-down limitation, as their occurrence was significantly negatively associated with illegal human activity (β = -0.63 [SE 0.28]). African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), instead, were limited by biotic features; the species was negatively associated with riverine areas of high sympatric predator density (β = -1.00 [SE 0.43]) and used less-productive habitats. Spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta) and leopard (Panthera pardus) persisted in more disturbed areas and across habitat types. Large carnivore occurrence was not affected by whether an area was used for photographic or trophy hunting tourism; regular law enforcement was instead a better predictor of occurrence. All species fared better in actively managed hunting areas than those that had been abandoned by operators. Overall, our findings highlight the divergent habitat requirements within large carnivore guilds and the importance of adopting an integrated approach to large carnivore conservation planning in modern systems. We also identified a novel threat to African conservation areas in the form of decreased management investments associated with the abandonment of trophy hunting areas.

Trends and biases in African large carnivore population assessments: identifying priorities and opportunities from a systematic review of two decades of research

African large carnivores have undergone significant range and population declines over recent decades. Although conservation planning and the management of threatened species requires accurate assessments of population status and monitoring of trends, there is evidence that biodiversity monitoring may not be evenly distributed or occurring where most needed. Here, we provide the first systematic review of African large carnivore population assessments published over the last two decades (2000-2020), to investigate trends in research effort and identify knowledge gaps. We used generalised linear models (GLMs) and generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) to identify taxonomic and geographical biases, and investigated biases associated with land use type and author nationality. Research effort was significantly biased towards lion (Panthera leo) and against striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena), despite the latter being the species with the widest continental range. African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) also exhibited a negative bias in research attention, although this was partly explained by its relatively restricted distribution. The number of country assessments for a species was significantly positively associated with its geographic range in that country. Population assessments were biased towards southern and eastern Africa, particularly South Africa and Kenya. Northern, western, and central Africa were generally under-represented. Most studies were carried out in photographic tourism protected areas under government management, while non-protected and trophy hunting areas received less attention. Outside South Africa, almost half of studies (41%) did not include authors from the study country, suggesting that significant opportunities exist for capacity building in range states. Overall, large parts of Africa remain under-represented in the literature, and opportunities exist for further research on most species and in most countries. We develop recommendations for actions aimed at overcoming the identified biases and provide researchers, practitioners, and policymakers with priorities to help inform future research and monitoring agendas.