Do disease epidemics force economic activity underground? International evidence

Free to die: Economic freedoms and influenza mortality

Seasonal influenzas are annually responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide, often because of insufficient care, which may depend on orientations of economic policy. Yet, the empirical evidence on the relations existing between policies based on different degrees of economic liberalism and flu mortality is still scarce. This paper contributes to filling the gap by proposing an empirical investigation into the effects of various dimensions of liberalism, proxied by the different components of the Fraser Index of Economic Freedom, on deaths from seasonal influenzas in a sample of 38 OECD countries observed from 1970 to 2018. A dynamic panel System-GMM estimator is used to alleviate endogeneity concerns, while alternative models, specifications and subsamples check the robustness of findings. Findings show that: a) not every component of economic freedom has an effect on flu mortality; b) more economic freedom not always means less or more deaths from flu. In particular, stronger protection of property rights and smaller government consumption are associated with higher flu mortality, which is instead lower when people and capital are freer to move. Such results give rise to policy considerations and contribute to inform policymakers about actions that can limit the mortality of a globally widespread disease like flu.

Shock determination in a two-stage decision-making model: The case of COVID-19 in Colombia

The contributions of this paper are as follows: (a) proposing a two-stage model to study whether an event has temporary or permanent effects on the probability of choosing a good within a market basket that traditional decision theory cannot explain and (b) studying the effects of COVID-19 on consumers' decisions in Colombia. Findings suggest that the pandemic has transitory effects on preferences in the short run. If it lasts longer, it could induce to permanent changes. Thus, this model can be used to analyze the temporary or permanent effects of any event, regardless of its nature or geographical region, on consumer's decision.

Managing the risk of COVID-19 via vaccine passports: Modeling economic and policy implications

The increasing use of vaccine passports (VPs) to certify immunity from the prevailing coronavirus has created positive and negative aspects that have shaken the workings of markets. The VPs are, however, not universally used and not required by all businesses and governments at this point. Given the newness associated with VPs and the ongoing uncertainty of the pandemic, full implications of VPs have not been considered. This paper provides some formal insights into the implications of the use of VPs, borrowing from the established economic theory. Recommendations for public policy are provided.