The prognostic role of Gender-Age-Physiology system in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients treated with pirfenidone

Bias and Reporting Quality of Clinical Prognostic Models for Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the risk of bias (ROB) and reporting quality of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) prediction models by assessing characteristics of these models.

Methods

The development and/or validation of IPF prognostic models were identified via an electronic search of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science (from inception to 12 August, 2021). Two researchers independently assessed the risk of bias (ROB) and reporting quality of IPF prediction models based on the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) and Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prognostic model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) checklist.

Results

Twenty prognostic model studies for IPF were included, including 7 (35%) model development and external validation studies, 8 (40%) development studies, and 5 (25%) external validation studies. According to PROBAST, all studies were appraised with high ROB, because of deficient reporting in the domains of participants (45.0%) and analysis (67.3%), and at least 55% studies were susceptible to 4 of 20 sources of bias. For the reporting quality, none of them completely adhered to the TRIPOD checklist, with the lowest mean reporting score for the methods and results domains (46.6% and 44.7%). For specific items, eight sub-items had a reporting rate ≥80% and adhered to the TRIPOD checklist, and nine sub-items had a very poor reporting rate, less than 30%.

Conclusion

Studies adhering to PROBAST and TRIPOD checklists are recommended in the future. The reproducibility and transparency can be improved when studies completely adhere to PROBAST and TRIPOD checklists.

Towards the Essence of Progressiveness: Bringing Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease (PF-ILD) to the Next Stage

Although only recently introduced in the ILD community, the concept of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (PF-ILD) has rapidly acquired an important place in the management of non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis fibrosing ILD (nonIPF fILD) patients. It confirms a clinical gut feeling that an important subgroup of nonIPF fILD portends a dismal prognosis despite therapeutically addressing the alleged triggering event. Due to several recently published landmark papers showing a treatment benefit with currently available antifibrotic drugs in PF-ILD patients, endorsing a PF-ILD phenotype has vital therapeutic consequences. Importantly, defining progressiveness is based on former progression, which has proven to be a rather moderate predictor of future progression. As fibrosis extent >20% and the presence of honeycombing have superior predictive properties regarding future progression, we advocate immediate initiation of antifibrotic treatment in the presence of these risk factors. In this perspective, we describe the historical context wherein PF-ILD has emerged, determine the currently employed PF-ILD criteria and their inherent limitations and propose new directions to mature its definition. Finally, while ascertaining progression in a nonIPF fILD patient clearly demonstrates the need for (additional) therapy, in the future, therapeutic decisions should be taken after assessing which pathway is ultimately driving the progression. Although not readily available, pathophysiological insight and diagnostic means are emergent to go full steam ahead in this novel direction.

The European MultiPartner IPF registry (EMPIRE): validating long-term prognostic factors in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

Several registries of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have been established to better understand its natural history, though their size and duration of follow-up are limited. Here, we describe the large European MultiPartner IPF Registry (EMPIRE) and validate predictors of long-term survival in IPF.

Methods

The multinational prospective EMPIRE registry enrolled IPF patients from 48 sites in 10 Central and Eastern European countries since 2014. Survival from IPF diagnosis until death was estimated, accounting for left-truncation. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of death for prognostic factors, using restricted cubic splines to fit continuous factors.

Results

The cohort included 1620 patients (mean age at diagnosis 67.6 years, 71% male, 63% smoking history), including 75% enrolled within 6 months of diagnosis. Median survival was 4.5 years, with 45% surviving 5 years post-diagnosis. Compared with GAP stage I, mortality was higher with GAP stages II (HR 2.9; 95% CI: 2.3–3.7) and III (HR 4.0; 95% CI: 2.8–5.7) while, with redefined cut-offs, the corresponding HRs were 2.7 (95% CI: 1.8–4.0) and 5.8 (95% CI: 4.0–8.3) respectively. Mortality was higher with concurrent pulmonary hypertension (HR 2.0; 95% CI: 1.5–2.9) and lung cancer (HR 2.6; 95% CI: 1.3–4.9).

Conclusions

EMPIRE, one of the largest long-term registries of patients with IPF, provides a more accurate confirmation of prognostic factors and co-morbidities on longer term five-year mortality. It also suggests that some fine-tuning of the indices for mortality may provide a more accurate long-term prognostic profile for these patients.

Telomere Abnormalities in the Pathobiology of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) occurs primarily in older adults and the incidence is clearly associated with aging. This disease seems to be associated with several hallmarks of aging, including telomere attrition and cellular senescence. Increasing evidence suggests that abnormalities involving telomeres and their proteome play a significant role in the pathobiology of IPF. The aim of this study is to summarize present knowledge in the field, as well as to discuss its possible clinical implications. Numerous mutations in genes associated with telomere functioning were studied in the context of IPF, mainly for Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase (TERT) and Telomerase RNA Component (TERC). Such mutations may lead to telomere shortening, which seems to increase the risk of IPF, negatively influence disease progression, and contribute to worse prognosis after lung transplantation. Some evidence indicates the possibility for the use of telomerase activators as potential therapeutic agents in pulmonary fibrosis. To sum up, increasing evidence suggests the role of telomere abnormalities in the pathobiology of IPF, natural history and prognosis of the disease. There are also possibilities for telomerase targeting in the potential development of new treatment agents. However, all these aspects require further research.