Making structured decisions for reintroduced populations in the face of uncertainty

Avoiding bias in estimates of population size for translocation management

Mark-recapture surveys are commonly used to monitor translocated populations globally. Data gathered are then used to estimate demographic parameters, such as abundance and survival, using Jolly-Seber (JS) models. However, in translocated populations initial population size is known and failure to account for this may bias parameter estimates, which are important for informing conservation decisions during population establishment. Here, we provide methods to account for known initial population size in JS models by incorporating a separate component likelihood for translocated individuals, using a maximum-likelihood estimation, with models that can be fitted using either R or MATLAB. We use simulated data and a case study of a threatened lizard species with low capture probability to demonstrate that unconstrained JS models may overestimate the size of translocated populations, especially in the early stages of post-release monitoring. Our approach corrects this bias; we use our simulations to demonstrate that overestimates of population size between 78% and 130% can occur in the unconstrained JS models when the detection probability is below 0.3 compared to 1%-8.9% for our constrained model. Our case study did not show an overestimate; however accounting for the initial population size greatly reduced error in all parameter estimates and prevented boundary estimates. Adopting the corrected JS model for translocations will help managers to obtain more robust estimates of the population sizes of translocated animals, better informing future management including reinforcement decisions, and ultimately improving translocation success.

IUCN captive management guidelines support ex situ conservation of the Bengal florican Houbaropsis bengalensis blandini

Ex situ conservation of species is risky and expensive, but it can prevent extinction when in situ conservation fails. We used the IUCN Guidelines on the Use of Ex Situ Management for Species Conservation to evaluate whether to begin ex situ conservation for the South-east Asian subspecies of Bengal florican Houbaropsis bengalensis blandini, which is predicted to be extinct in the wild within 5 years. To inform our decision, we developed a decision tree, and used a demographic model to evaluate the probability of establishing a captive population under a range of husbandry scenarios and egg harvest regimes, and compared this with the probability of the wild population persisting. The model showed that if ex situ conservation draws on international best practice in bustard husbandry there is a high probability of establishing a captive population, but the wild population is unlikely to persist. We identified and evaluated the practical risks associated with ex situ conservation, and documented our plans to mitigate them. Modelling shows that it is unlikely that birds could be released within 20–30 years, by which time genetic, morphological and behavioural changes in the captive population, combined with habitat loss and extinction of the wild population, make it unlikely that Bengal florican could be released into a situation approximating their current wild state. We considered the philosophical and practical implications through a decision tree so that our decision to begin ex situ management is not held back by our preconceived notions of what it means to be wild.

Preparing for translocations of a Critically Endangered petrel through targeted monitoring of nest survival and breeding biology

The population of the recently-described Whenua Hou diving petrel Pelecanoides whenuahouensis comprises c. 200 adults that all breed in a single 0.018 km2 colony in a dune system vulnerable to erosion. The species would therefore benefit from the establishment of a second breeding population through a translocation. However, given the small size of the source population, it is essential that translocations are informed by carefully targeted monitoring data. We therefore modelled nest survival at the remaining population in relation to potential drivers (distance to sea and burrow density of conspecifics and a competitor) across three breeding seasons with varying climatic conditions as a result of the southern oscillation cycle. We also documented breeding phenology and burrow attendance, and measured chicks, to generate growth curves. We estimated egg survival at 0.686, chick survival at 0.890, overall nest survival at 0.612, and found no indication that nest survival was affected by distance to sea or burrow density. Whenua Hou diving petrels laid eggs in mid October, eggs hatched in late November, and chicks fledged in mid January at c. 86% of adult weight. Burrow attendance (i.e. feeds) decreased from 0.94 to 0.65 visits per night as chicks approached fledging. Nest survival and breeding biology were largely consistent among years despite variation in climate. Nest survival estimates will facilitate predictions about future population trends and suitability of prospective translocation sites. Knowledge of breeding phenology will inform the timing of collection of live chicks for translocation, and patterns of burrow attendance combined with growth curves will structure hand-rearing protocols. A tuhinga whakarāpopoto (te reo Māori abstract) can be found in the Supplementary material.

A modelling framework for integrating reproduction, survival and count data when projecting the fates of threatened populations

A key goal of ecological research is to obtain reliable estimates of population demographic rates, abundance and trends. However, a common challenge when studying wildlife populations is imperfect detection or breeding observation, which results in unknown survival status and reproductive output for some individuals. It is important to account for undetected individuals in population models because they contribute to population abundance and dynamics, and can have implications for population management. Promisingly, recent methodological advances provide us with the tools to integrate data from multiple independent sources to gain insights into the unobserved component of populations. We use data from five reintroduced populations of a threatened New Zealand bird, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), to develop an integrated population modelling framework that allows missing values for survival status, sex and reproductive output to be modelled. Our approach combines parallel matrices of encounter and reproduction histories from marked individuals, as well as counts of unmarked recruits detected at the start of each breeding season. Integrating these multiple data types enabled us to simultaneously model survival and reproduction of detected individuals, undetected individuals and unknown (never detected) individuals to derive parameter estimates and projections based on all available data, thereby improving our understanding of population dynamics and enabling full propagation of uncertainty. The methods presented will be especially useful for management programmes for populations that are intensively monitored but where individuals are still imperfectly detected, as will be the case for most threatened wild populations.