Evaluating the validity of model for end-stage liver disease exception points for hepatocellular carcinoma patients with multiple nodules <2 cm

Multicenter validation of a score to predict prognosis after the development of HCC recurrence following liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

HCC recurrence after LT impacts negatively on survival. A recent study detected late recurrence (≥12 months), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) <100 ng/mL at recurrence and being amenable for curative-intent treatments as good prognostic factors. With these variables a prognostic score was proposed. The objective of this study was to validate the prognostic score for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence following liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

Data from the University of California, San Francisco, the University Hospital of Birmingham and Instituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milan including patients with HCC recurrence after LT were analyzed. The previous reported score was applied to this cohort.

RESULTS

From June 2002-December 2014, 1328 patients had a confirmed HCC in their explanted liver. The study group comprised 130 patients (9.8%) diagnosed with HCC recurrence after LT. Overall median survival after HCC recurrence was 12.4 (95% CI 10.2-16.3) months. Application of the previously reported score showed a significantly superior survival for the good prognosis group compared to moderate and poor prognosis groups (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The score continues to identify a group of patients who would benefit from aggressive treatment and experience significant improved survival following recurrent HCC after LT.

A Simple Measure of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Burden Predicts Tumor Recurrence After Liver Transplantation: The Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma-Initial, Maximum, Last Classification

Risk of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) after liver transplantation (LT) depends on the pre-LT HCC burden, tumor behavior, and response to locoregional therapy (LRT). In December 2017, LT priority for HCC was expanded to select patients outside the Milan criteria who respond to LRT. Our aims were to develop a novel objective measure of pre-LT HCC burden (model of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma-initial, maximum, last [RH-IML]), incorporating tumor behavior over time, and to apply RH-IML to model post-LT rHCC. Using United Network for Organ Sharing data from between 2002-2014 (development) and 2015-2017 (validation), we identified adult LT recipients with HCC and assessed pre-LT HCC tumor behavior and post-LT rHCC. For each patient, HCC burden was measured at 3 points on the waiting list: initial (I), maximum (M) total tumor diameter, and last (L) exception petition. HCC burden at these 3 points were classified as (A) <Milan, (B) Milan, (C) >Milan to University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), and (D) >UCSF, resulting in each patient having a 3-letter RH-IML designation. Of 16,558 recipients with HCC, 1233 (7%) had any post-LT rHCC. rHCC rates were highest in RH-IML group CCC (15%) and DDD (18%). When M and L tumor burdens did not exceed Milan (class B or A), rHCC was low (≤10%) as in AAA, ABA, ABB, BBA, BBB; rHCC was also low (≤10%) with successful downstaging when L was A (<Milan) and M tumor burden did not exceed I, as in BBA, CCA, and DDA. In conclusion, the RH-IML classification system is a simple summative measure of HCC burden that incorporates tumor behavior over time. RH-IML also estimates post-LT rHCC risk and is a useful tool for evaluating risk for rHCC post-LT.

Misdiagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving no local-regional therapy prior to liver transplant: An analysis of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network explant pathology form

Patients with T1 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are not eligible for Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) exception for liver transplant (LT) in part due to a high rate of misdiagnosis (no HCC on explant). The likelihood of misdiagnosis for T2 HCC and factors associated with misdiagnosis are unknown. We analyzed the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database including 5664 adults who underwent LT from 2012 to 2015 with MELD exception for T2 HCC, and searched for no evidence of HCC in the explant pathology file. We focused on those (n = 324) receiving no local-regional therapy (LRT) to evaluate the probability of no HCC found in explant. Median waiting time was short at 1.7 months, and 35 (11%) had no HCC on explant. On multivariable logistic regression, factors associated with no HCC on explant were age <50 (OR: 17.3, P < .001), non-HCV (OR: 5.4, P = .001), and alpha-fetoprotein <10 (OR: 2.9, P = .04). Tumor size and number were not different between groups. The proportion of misdiagnosis did not change significantly after implementation of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) for HCC diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The rate of misdiagnosis was 11% among T2 HCC patients who underwent LT without receiving LRT prior to LT and did not change significantly after implementation of LI-RADS. More efforts are needed to eliminate unnecessary LT for patients without HCC.