Decline in alcohol consumption in Russia: Collectivity or polarisation?

The association between beverage-specific alcohol consumption and mortality among road users in Russia, 1965-2019

A vast body of literature suggests a relationship between alcohol consumption and road traffic fatalities. Despite an impressive downward trend in road traffic fatalities in Russia, the death rate is still unacceptably high. Far fewer studies have differentiated the association by road users and types of alcoholic beverages. This population-based study aims to estimate the associations of total and beverage-specific alcohol per capita (15+) consumption (APC) based on official alcohol sales statistics and road traffic mortality using police data on the number of deaths by road users. The study covers the period 1965-2019. We employed a first-order difference linear regression model with robust and autocorrelation consistent standard errors, controlling for a level of motorisation. To examine the possible evolution of the phenomenon, we repeated models separately for three consecutive periods (1965-1984, 1985-2002, 2003-2019). The findings suggest that an annual 1-litre increase in APC (in litres of pure alcohol) associated with a corresponding increase in the death rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) of both unprotected road users and motor vehicle occupants by about 0.3 (p < 0.01) and 0.4 (p < 0.05), respectively. A beverage-specific analysis for 1965-2019 revealed a positive and significant association between mortality of pedestrians and cyclists and the consumption of strong alcoholic beverages (p < 0.05) as well as mortality of drivers and passengers and the consumption of weaker alcoholic beverages, primarily beer (p < 0.01). Various road safety strategies should be applied to prevent road traffic fatalities of road users.

Declines in alcohol consumption in Australia: some challenges to the theory of collectivity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There is significant debate about whether or not changes in per-capita alcohol consumption occur collectively across the entire distribution of drinking. This study used data from a decade of declining drinking in Australia to test the collectivity of drinking trends.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional surveys (2010, 2013, 2016, 2019), analysed with quantile regression techniques assessing trends in drinking for 20 quantile groups.

SETTING

Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

A general population sample (total n = 85 891; males = 39 182, females = 46 709) aged 14 years and over.

MEASUREMENTS

Past-year volume of alcohol consumed was measured using standard graduated frequency survey questions. Models were stratified by sex and age group.

FINDINGS

Throughout the whole population, alcohol consumption had declined in all percentile groups, with the largest proportional declines evident for light and moderate drinkers [e.g. drinkers in the 25th percentile declined by 32.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = -41.6, -22.3% per wave]. Broadly collective declines were also found for younger men and women with significant declines in every percentile group, but older groups showed some evidence of polarization. For example, women aged 45-64 years significantly increased their consumption (2.9% per wave, 95% CI = 0.3-5.5%), while consumption for those in the 25th percentile fell significantly (-16.7%, 95% CI = -27.6, -4.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The declines in Australian drinking since 2010 have included important deviations from the collectivity predicted by Skog's influential theory of collectivity of drinking, with markedly different patterns evident among different demographic groups.