Chasing a changing climate: Reproductive and dispersal traits predict how sessile species respond to global warming

Trait-based approaches to global change ecology: moving from description to prediction

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally (n = 865 studies) to examine the contexts in which traits may be used for global change prediction. We find that exponential growth in the field over the last decade remains dominated by descriptive studies of terrestrial plant morphology, highlighting significant opportunities to expand trait-based thinking across systems and taxa. Very few studies (less than 3%) focus on predicting ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past 5 years and via singular traits that mediate abiotic limits on species distribution. Beyond organism size (the most examined trait), we identify over 2500 other morphological, physiological, behavioural and life-history traits known to mediate environmental filters of species' range and abundance as candidates for future predictive global change work. Though uncommon, spatially explicit process models—which mechanistically link traits to changes in organism distributions and abundance—are among the most promising frameworks for holistic global change prediction at scales relevant for conservation decision-making. Further progress towards trait-based forecasting requires addressing persistent barriers including (1) matching scales of multivariate trait and environment data to focal processes disrupted by global change, and (2) propagating variation in trait and environmental parameters throughout process model functions using simulation.

Coral adaptation to climate change: Meta-analysis reveals high heritability across multiple traits

Anthropogenic climate change is a rapidly intensifying selection pressure on biodiversity across the globe and, particularly, on the world's coral reefs. The rate of adaptation to climate change is proportional to the amount of phenotypic variation that can be inherited by subsequent generations (i.e., narrow-sense heritability, h² ). Thus, traits that have higher heritability (e.g., h²  > 0.5) are likely to adapt to future conditions faster than traits with lower heritability (e.g., h²  < 0.1). Here, we synthesize 95 heritability estimates across 19 species of reef-building corals. Our meta-analysis reveals low heritability (h² < 0.25) of gene expression metrics, intermediate heritability (h²  = 0.25-0.50) of photochemistry, growth, and bleaching, and high heritability (h²  > 0.50) for metrics related to survival and immune responses. Some of these values are higher than typically observed in other taxa, such as survival and growth, while others were more comparable, such as gene expression and photochemistry. There was no detectable effect of temperature on heritability, but narrow-sense heritability estimates were generally lower than broad-sense estimates, indicative of significant non-additive genetic variation across traits. Trait heritability also varied depending on coral life stage, with bleaching and growth in juveniles generally having lower heritability compared to bleaching and growth in larvae and adults. These differences may be the result of previous stabilizing selection on juveniles or may be due to constrained evolution resulting from genetic trade-offs or genetic correlations between growth and thermotolerance. While we find no evidence that heritability decreases under temperature stress, explicit tests of the heritability of thermal tolerance itself-such as coral thermal reaction norm shape-are lacking. Nevertheless, our findings overall reveal high trait heritability for the majority of coral traits, suggesting corals may have a greater potential to adapt to climate change than has been assumed in recent evolutionary models.

Gene family amplification facilitates adaptation in freshwater unionid bivalve Megalonaias nervosa

Freshwater unionid bivalves currently face severe anthropogenic challenges. Over 70% of species in the United States are threatened, endangered or extinct due to pollution, damming of waterways and overfishing. These species are notable for their unusual life history strategy, parasite-host co-evolution and biparental mitochondrial inheritance. Among this clade, the washboard mussel Megalonaias nervosa is one species that remains prevalent across the Southeastern United States, with robust population sizes. We have created a reference genome for M. nervosa to determine how genome content has evolved in the face of these widespread environmental challenges. We observe dynamic changes in genome content, with a burst of recent transposable element proliferation causing a 382 Mb expansion in genome content. Birth-death models suggest rapid expansions among gene families, with a mutation rate of 1.16 × 10^-8 duplications per gene per generation. Cytochrome P450 gene families have experienced exceptional recent amplification beyond expectations based on genome-wide birth-death processes. These genes are associated with increased rates of amino acid changes, a signature of selection driving evolution of detox genes. Fitting evolutionary models of adaptation from standing genetic variation, we can compare adaptive potential across species and mutation types. The large population size in M. nervosa suggests a 4.7-fold advantage in the ability to adapt from standing genetic variation compared with a low diversity endemic E. hopetonensis. Estimates suggest that gene family evolution may offer an exceptional substrate of genetic variation in M. nervosa, with P_sgv  = 0.185 compared with P_sgv  = 0.067 for single nucleotide changes. Hence, we suggest that gene family evolution is a source of 'hopeful monsters' within the genome that may facilitate adaptation when selective pressures shift. These results suggest that gene family expansion is a key driver of adaptive evolution in this key species of freshwater Unionidae that is currently facing widespread environmental challenges. This work has clear implications for conservation genomics on freshwater bivalves as well as evolutionary theory. This genome represents a first step to facilitate reverse ecological genomics in Unionidae and identify the genetic underpinnings of phenotypic diversity.