Effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on avian breeding phenology

An evaluation of the landscape structure and La Niña climatic anomalies associated with Japanese encephalitis virus outbreaks reported in Australian piggeries in 2022

The widespread activity of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) reported in previously unaffected regions of eastern and southern Australia in 2022 represents the most significant local arbovirus emergency in almost 50 years. Japanese encephalitis virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in wild ardeid birds and amplified in pigs, the latter of which suffer significant reproductive losses as a result of infection. The landscape epidemiology of JEV in mainland Australia is almost entirely unknown, particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the country where the virus has not been previously documented. Although other areas with endemic JEV circulation in the Indo-Pacific region have demonstrated the importance of wild waterbird-livestock interface in agricultural-wetland mosaics, no such investigation has yet determined the composition and configuration of pathogenic landscapes for Australia. Moreover, the recent emergence in Australia has followed substantial precipitation and temperature anomalies associated with the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. This study investigated the landscape epidemiology of JEV outbreaks in Australian piggeries reported between January and April of 2022 to determine the influence of ardeid habitat suitability, hydrogeography, hydrology, land cover and La Niña-associated climate anomalies. Outbreaks of JEV in domestic pigs were associated with intermediate ardeid species richness, cultivated land and grassland fragmentation, waterway proximity, temporary wetlands, and hydrological flow accumulation. This study has identified the composition and configuration of landscape features that were associated with piggery outbreaks reported in 2022 in Australia. Although preliminary, these findings can inform actionable strategies for the development of new One Health JEV surveillance specific to the needs of Australia.

The influence of the Southern Oscillation Index on the timing of breeding of a forest-bird community in south-eastern Australia

ContextLong-term changes in the breeding phenology of bird communities have been widely studied. For many species, breeding appears to be starting earlier as temperatures increase. For south-eastern Australia, such a trend has not so far been demonstrated. AimsThe aim was to determine how the date of laying of the first egg (FE; for sedentary species) or arrival times (for migratory species) responded to climatic factors such as rainfall, air temperature and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and whether FE or arrival time showed a trend through time. MethodsThe date of laying of the first egg (FE) for 13 sedentary species of birds was recorded over 18 (1975–1984 and 2007–2014) breeding seasons (August to January) at a single site in a coastal forest in south-eastern Australia. The arrival times for seven migratory species were also recorded for these seasons. Key resultsLinear mixed models showed that FE was negatively correlated with the mean monthly SOI for April to July (A-J SOI), the period directly before the breeding season. Eggs were laid earlier when A-J SOI was positive and later when it was negative. SOIs calculated over different combinations of months showed that those for the January to March period had no influence on FE. FE was not related to minimum or maximum temperatures during April to July, despite increases in temperature between 1975 and 2014, nor was it related to rainfall between April and July. Mixed linear models showed that arrival date for migratory species became earlier between 1975 and 2014, but was uninfluenced by A-J SOI or rainfall. ConclusionsMigratory species arrived earlier by 0.27 days per year. However, this was at least an order of magnitude smaller than annual temporal changes in FE for sedentary species (6–7 days) associated with cyclical SOI fluctuations. Changes in SOI dominated the annual breeding phenology of the community. ImplicationsThe mechanisms by which A-J SOI influences the timing of nesting may be related to the primary productivity of forests and the influence of this on insect abundance. There are few data on these factors.

Local effects of global climate on a small rodent Necromys lasiurus

Global climate drivers often have strong effects on the carrying capacity of animal populations, but little is known about how effects differ between regional and local scales. In this paper we evaluated how climate variables were correlated with regional and local fluctuations of a small rodent, Necromys lasiurus, in an Amazonian savanna. Between 2000 and 2019, we evaluated the temporal variation in abundance of N. lasiurus in eight 4.0-ha plots separated by 0.8 – 10.6 km. Using generalized linear mixed models, we found that, at a regional scale, the abundance of rodents captured was positively associated with the abundance in the prior year, but had little relationship with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which had been shown to affect rats in a single plot in a previous study. However, variation in densities among years was coordinated among some plots, leading to patchiness in population dynamics. Based on the patterns of density fluctuations, the plots formed three clusters. Analyses based on these clusters indicated that only one was strongly affected by SOI, as in the previous study. The differences in the effects of global climate drivers on populations of a single species in relatively homogeneous habitat indicate that predictions about the effects of climate change should be based on simultaneous studies in a variety of sites or they may lead to spurious relationships.

Associations of breeding-bird abundance with climate vary among species and trait-based groups in southern California

The responses of individuals and populations to climate change vary as functions of physiology, ecology, and plasticity. We investigated whether annual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation was associated with relative abundances of breeding bird species at local and regional levels in southern California, USA, from 1968-2013. We tested our hypotheses that abundances were correlated positively with precipitation and negatively with temperature in this semiarid to arid region. We also examined whether responses to climate varied among groups of species with similar land-cover associations, nesting locations, and migratory patterns. We investigated relations between seasonal climate variables and the relative abundances of 41 species as estimated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Associations with climate variables varied among species. Results of models of species associated with arid scrublands or that nest on the ground strongly supported our hypotheses, whereas those of species associated with coniferous forests or that nest in cavities did not. Associations between climate variables and the abundances of other trait-based groups were diverse. Our results suggest that species in arid areas may be negatively affected by increased temperature and aridity, but species in nearby areas that are cooler and less arid may respond positively to those fluctuations in climate. Relations with climate variables can differ among similar species, and such knowledge may inform projections of future abundance trajectories and geographic ranges.

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi-brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi-brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi-brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a "sliding window" approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species' phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals' breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi-brooded species may have been underestimated.

The role of the environment in the evolution of nest shape in Australian passerines

Avian nests present great variation in structure but, after excluding cavity nesters, probably the most obvious difference is that between open and domed nests. Some species lay their eggs in open structures, exposed to environmental variables, while other species build domed, enclosed nests with a roof, which are suggested to protect eggs and nestlings from weather conditions, high radiation levels, and predation. To date it is unclear which variables drove the evolution of different nest types. In this study, environmental and nest type information was extracted for continental Australian passerines, showing that species with open and closed nests are distributed in similar climates. However, species with open nests have larger ranges and are distributed in a wider variety of climatic conditions, suggesting open nests could be an evolutionary key innovation. This analysis was complemented with a detailed study of the evolution of particular nest traits in the largest Australasian avian radiation (Meliphagoidea), confirming that adult body size - but not environment - is an important factor in nest architecture, and larger species tend to build nests that are shallow and supported from underneath. Nest structure is a multidimensional trait that has probably evolved to match the phenotype of the nest owner, but that could also constrain or facilitate establishment in different environments.