Life history characteristics may be as important as climate projections for defining range shifts: An example for common tree species in the intermountain western US

Life history traits predict colonization and extinction lags of desert plant species since the Last Glacial Maximum

Variation in life-history strategies can affect metapopulation dynamics and consequently the composition and diversity of communities. However, data sets that allow for the full range of species turnover from colonization to extinction over relevant time periods are limited. The late Quaternary record provides unique opportunities to explore the traits that may have influenced interspecific variation in responses to past climate warming, in particular the rate at which species colonized newly suitable habitat or went locally extinct from degrading habitat. We controlled for differences in species climate niches in order to predict expected colonization and extinction sequences recorded in packrat middens from 15 localities in the Mohave, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan deserts of North America. After accounting for temperature niche differences, we tested the hypotheses that dispersal syndrome (none, wind, vertebrate), growth form (herb, shrub, tree) and seed mass mediated variation in postglacial colonization lags among species, whereas clonality (clonal, non-clonal), growth form, and seed mass affected extinction lags. Growth form and dispersal syndrome interactively affected colonization lags, where herbaceous species lacking long-distance dispersal mechanisms exhibited lags that exceeded those of woody, wind or vertebrate-dispersed species by an average of 2,000-5,000 yr. Growth form and seed mass interactively affected extinction lags, with very small-seeded shrubs persisting for 4,000-8,000 yr longer than other functional groups. Taller, vertebrate-dispersed plants have been shown in other studies to disperse farther than shorter plants without specialized dispersal mechanisms. We found that variation along this axis of dispersal syndromes resulted in dramatic differences in colonization rates in response to past climate change. Very small seeded shrubs may have a unique combination of long vegetative and seed bank lifetimes that may allow them to persist for long periods despite declines in habitat condition. This study indicates that readily measurable traits may help predict which species will be more or less sensitive to future climate change, and inform interventions that can stabilize and promote at-risk populations.

Winners and losers: How the elevational range of breeding birds on Alps has varied over the past four decades due to climate and habitat changes

Climate warming and habitat transformation are widely recognized as worrying threatening factors. Understanding the individual contribution of these two factors to the change of species distribution could be very important in order to effectively counteract the species range contraction, especially in mountains, where alpine species are strongly limited in finding new areas to be colonized at higher elevations. We proposed a method to disentangle the effects of the two drivers of range change for breeding birds in Italian Alps, in the case of co-occurring climate warming and shrub and forest encroachment. For each species, from 1982 to 2017, we related the estimated yearly elevational distribution of birds to the correspondent overall average of the daily minimum temperatures during the breeding season and the estimated amount of shrubs and forest cover. Using a hierarchical partitioning approach, we assessed the net contribution (i.e., without the shared effect) of each driver. Both temperature and shrub and forest cover showed a positive trend along the time series and resulted the most likely causes of the significant elevational displacement for 21 of the 29 investigated birds. While shrub and forest cover was found to be an important driver of the expansion of forest bird range toward higher elevations, the effect of temperature on favouring the colonization of previously climatically unsuitable forests at higher elevations was not negligible. Shrub and forest expansion resulted the main driver of the range contraction for edge and open habitat species, which suffered a distribution shrinkage at their lower elevational boundary. In light of climate warming, these results highlighted how the net range loss for edge and open habitat species, caused by shrub and forest encroachment consequent to land abandonment, should be counteracted by implementing proper conservation management strategies and promoting sustainable economic activities in rangeland areas.