Sigmoidal curves reflect impacts and dynamics of aquatic invasive species

Identifying general patterns and trends underlying the impacts and dynamics of biological invasions has proven elusive for scientists. Recently, the impact curve was proposed as a means to predict temporal impacts of invasive alien species, characterised by a sigmoidal growth pattern with an initial exponential increase, followed by a subsequent rate of decline and approaching a saturation level in the long-term where impact is maximised. While the impact curve has been empirically demonstrated with monitoring data of a single invasive alien species (the New Zealand mud snail, Potamopyrgus antipodarum), broadscale applicability remains to be tested for other taxa. Here, we examined whether the impact curve can adequately describe the invasion dynamics of 13 other aquatic species (within Amphipoda, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Hirudinea, Isopoda, Mysida, and Platyhelminthes) at the European level, employing multi-decadal time series of macroinvertebrate cumulative abundances from regular benthic monitoring efforts. For all except one tested species (the killer shrimp, Dikerogammarus villosus), the sigmoidal impact curve was strongly supported (R² > 0.95) on a sufficiently long time-scale. For D. villosus, the impact had not yet reached saturation, likely reflecting the ongoing European invasion. The impact curve facilitated estimation of introduction years and lag phases, as well as parameterisation of growth rates and carrying capacities, providing strong support for the boom-bust dynamics typically observed in several invader populations. These findings suggest that impact can grow rapidly before saturating at a high level, with timely monitoring often lacking for the detection of invasive alien species post-introduction. We further confirm the applicability of the impact curve to determine trends in invasion stages, population dynamics, and impacts of pertinent invaders, ultimately helping inform the timing of management interventions. We hence call for improved monitoring and reporting of invasive alien species over broad spatio-temporal scales to permit further testing of large-scale impact consistencies across various habitat types.

Temperature, not salinity, drives impact of an emerging invasive species

Biological invasions are a growing ecological and socioeconomic problem worldwide. While robust predictions of impactful future invaders are urgently needed, understandings of invader impacts have been challenged by context-dependencies. In aquatic systems in particular, future climate change could alter the impacts of invasive non-native species. Widespread warming coupled with sea freshening may exacerbate ecological impacts of invaders in marine environments, compromising ecosystem structure, function and stability. We examined how multiple abiotic changes affect the potential ecological impact of an emerging invasive non-native species from the Ponto-Caspian region - a notorious origin hotspot for invaders, characterised by high salinity and temperature variation. Using a comparative functional response (feeding rates across prey densities) approach, the potential ecological impacts of the gammarid Pontogammarus maeoticus towards native chironomid prey were examined across a range of current and future temperature (18, 22 °C) and salinity (14, 10, 6, 2 ppt) regimes in a factorial design. Feeding rates of P. maeoticus on prey significantly increased with temperature (by 60%), but were not significantly affected by salinity regime. Gammarids displayed significant Type II functional responses, with attack rates not significantly affected by warming across all salinities. Handling times were, however, shortened by warming, and thus maximum feeding rates significantly increased, irrespective of salinity regime. Functional responses were significantly different following warming at high prey densities under all salinities, except under the ambient 10 ppt. Euryhalinity of invasive non-native species from the Ponto-Caspian region thus could allow sustained ecological impacts across a range of salinity regimes. These results corroborate high invasion success and field impacts of Ponto-Caspian gammarids in brackish through to freshwater ecosystems. Climate warming will likely worsen the potential ecological impact of P. maeoticus. With invasions growing worldwide, quantifications of how combined elements of climate change will alter the impacts of emerging invasive non-native species are needed.