Combined climate change and dispersal capacity positively affect Hoplobatrachus chinensis occupancy of agricultural wetlands

Global warming significantly impacts amphibian populations globally, and modeling helps understand these effects. Here, we used MaxEnt and MigClim models to predict the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for Hoplobatrachus chinensis. Our results indicate that temperature is a key factor affecting H. chinensis distribution. Increasing temperatures positively correlated with habitat suitability, with suitable habitat expanding northward by 2060 while maintaining suitability in the southern parts of the range. We found a 25.18% overlap between the current potential suitable habitat of H. chinensis and agricultural wetlands. Our model indicated that H. chinensis might be able to track shifts in suitable habitats under climate change given a 15 km dispersal ability per generation. Climate change will likely expand suitable habitat for H. chinensis. Our predictions offer important guidance for the conservation of the species, especially for the integrated role of natural and agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies.

The Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution Pattern of Species Richness of Endemic Wetland Plants in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Wetland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the region with the richest biodiversity and the most important ecological barrier function at high altitudes, are highly sensitive to global change, and wetland plants, which are important indicators of wetland ecosystem structure and function, are also threatened by wetland degradation. Therefore, a comprehensive study of changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plant diversity, as well as species loss and turnover of wetlands in the QTP in the context of global climate change is of great importance for the conservation and restoration of wetland ecosystems in the QTP. In this study, species turnover and loss of 395 endemic wetland plants of the QTP were predicted based on the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenarios. The results showed that there were interspecific differences in the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of species, and that most endemic wetland plants would experience range contraction. Under the climate change scenarios, the loss of suitable wetland plant habitat is expected to occur mainly in parts of the southern, north-central and north-western parts of the plateau, while the gain is mainly concentrated in parts of the western Sichuan Plateau, the Qilian Mountains, the Three Rivers Source Region and the northern Tibetan Plateau. Overlaying the analysis of priority protected areas with the established protected areas in the QTP has resulted in the following conservation gaps: the eastern Himalayan region, midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the transition zone between the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Hengduan Mountains, Minshan-Qionglai mountain, Anyemaqen Mountains (southeast) to Bayankala (southeast) mountains, the southern foothills of the Qilian Mountains and the northern Tibetan Plateau region. In the future, the study of wetland plant diversity in the QTP and the optimisation of protected areas should focus on the conservation gaps. This study is of great importance for the study and conservation of wetland plant diversity in the QTP, and also provides a scientific basis for predicting the response of wetland plants to climate change in the QTP.

Climate change will lead to range shifts and genetic diversity losses of dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe

Desertification is known to be a major threat to biodiversity, yet our understanding of the consequent decline in biodiversity remains insufficient. Here, we predicted climate change-induced range shifts and genetic diversity losses in three model dung beetles: Colobopterus erraticus, Cheironitis eumenes, and Gymnopleurus mopsus, distributed across the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe, areas known for desertification. Phylogeographic analyses of mitochondrial COI sequences and species distribution modeling, based on extensive field investigations spanning 14 years, were performed. Species confined to a single biome were predicted to contract and shift their distribution in response to climate change, whereas widespread species was predicted to expand even if affected by range shifts. We indicated that all species are expected to experience significant haplotype losses, yet the presence of high singleton frequencies and low genetic divergence across geographic configurations and lineages mitigate loss of genetic diversity. Notably, Cheironitis eumenes, a desert species with low genetic diversity, appears to be the most vulnerable to climate change due to the extensive degradation in the Gobi Desert. This is the first study to predict the response of insects to desertification in the Gobi Desert. Our findings highlight that dung beetles in the Gobi Desert and Mongolian Steppe might experience high rates of occupancy turnover and genetic loss, which could reshuffle the species composition.

Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections

The identification of future refugia for endangered species from the effects of global warming is crucial for improving their conservation. Because climate-driven shifts in ranges and local extinctions can result in a spatial mismatch with their symbiotic organisms, however, it is important to incorporate in niche modelling the ecological partners of the species studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of suitable niches for the ghost orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) and its phorophytes and pollinators. Thus, its five species of host trees and three pollen vectors were included in the analysis. Climatic preferences of all the species studied were evaluated. The modelling was based on three different climate change projections and four Shared Socio-economic Pathway trajectories. All the species analysed are characterized by narrow temperature tolerances, which with global warming are likely to result in local extinctions and range shifts. D. lindenii is likely to be subjected to a significant loss of suitable niches, but within a reduced geographical range, both host trees and pollen vectors will be available in the future. Future conservation of this orchid should focus on areas that are likely be suitable for it and its ecological partners.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.