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Bean WT, Butterfield HS, Howard JK, Batter TJ. Climatically robust multiscale species distribution models to support pronghorn recovery in California. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11454. [PMID: 38903145 PMCID: PMC11188984 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2024] [Revised: 04/29/2024] [Accepted: 05/07/2024] [Indexed: 06/22/2024] Open
Abstract
We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in California now and into the future. We used a consensus approach to identify areas of suitable climate now and future for pronghorn in California. We compared the results of climate models from two separate hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state. Under the migration hypothesis, pronghorn were expected to be limited climatically by extreme cold in winter and extreme heat in summer; under the niche reduction hypothesis, historical pronghorn of distribution would have better represented the climatic limitations of the species. We combined occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat suitability models: (1) an ensemble model using random forests, Maxent, classification and regression Trees, and a generalized linear model; (2) a step selection function; and (3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate the prospects of, pronghorn recovery. Climate suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that there will be no suitable climate in California in the future. Under the niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand. Habitat suitability also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among all three models exist in large patches throughout the state. Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multimethod, multihypothesis approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and, perhaps more importantly, fill critical knowledge gaps that could resolve disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout the arid Southwest.
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Affiliation(s)
- William T. Bean
- California Polytechnic State University – San Luis ObispoSan Luis ObispoCaliforniaUSA
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Chang Y, Zhao C, Liu X, He L. Mapping multi-seasonal habitats of giant pandas to identify seasonal shifts. iScience 2024; 27:109115. [PMID: 38384834 PMCID: PMC10879713 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024] Open
Abstract
As a flagship species of biodiversity conservation globally, the giant panda has seasonal migration to cope with seasonal changes in available resources. Here, we have mapped the spatial distribution of multi-seasonal habitats of the giant panda across the Baishuijiang reserve in China. Results show that the spatial patterns are different in different seasons, generally, large patches are observed in the western part, while staggered clusters occur in the middle and eastern parts. That is, suitable habitats for giant pandas are mostly distributed in the west part. More than 75% of the predicted suitable habitats are within the core zone of the reserve year-round, indicating the core zone essentially meet giant panda's ecological needs, although this range could potentially be expanded. This study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal migration patterns of endangered species and helps to guide conservation planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yapeng Chang
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
| | - Chuanyan Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems, Key Laboratory of Grassland Livestock Industry Innovation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Engineering Research Center of Grassland Industry, Ministry of Education, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China
| | - Xingming Liu
- Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve, Wenxian, Gansu 746400, China
| | - Liwen He
- Baishuijiang National Nature Reserve, Wenxian, Gansu 746400, China
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Dar SA, Sharief A, Kumar V, Singh H, Joshi BD, Bhattacharjee S, Dutta R, Dolker S, Singh AP, Singh VK, Sidhu AK, Thakur M, Sharma LK. Free-ranging dogs are seriously threatening Himalayan environment: delineating the high-risk areas for curbing free-ranging dog infestation in the Trans-Himalayan region. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:1386. [PMID: 37889333 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11972-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/09/2023] [Indexed: 10/28/2023]
Abstract
It is becoming more widely recognised that free-ranging dogs, which have a nearly global distribution, threatening native wildlife. Their increasing population and spread to new areas is of growing concern for the long-term viability of wildlife species. Hence, it is imperative to understand the factors responsible for their infestation and map areas where native species are most vulnerable. Using the random forests algorithm, we modelled the free-ranging dog infestation in the Trans-Himalayan region to pinpoint the high-risk areas where free-ranging dogs are threatening the native wildlife species. We found that the likelihood of free-ranging dog occurrence is most in valley regions and up to 4000 m, often in proximity to roads. Our results also indicated that free-ranging dog prefers areas with wildlife near to protected areas. The predictor variables, such as potential evapotranspiration of the coldest quarter, distance to protected areas, elevation, distance to roads, and potential evapotranspiration of the driest quarter, significantly influence the distribution of the free-ranging dogs. We found that within the Ladakh region of the Trans-Himalayan area, the high-risk zones for free-ranging dogs are located in and around Hemis National Park, Karakoram Wildlife Sanctuary, and Changthang Wildlife Sanctuary. While, in the Lahaul and Spiti region the high-risk areas encompass Pin Valley National Park, Inderkilla National Park, Khirganga National Park, Kugti Wildlife Sanctuary, and several other protected areas. We identified the potentially high-risk areas for implementing strategies to mitigate the possible impact of free-ranging dogs on native wildlife of the Himalayas. Hence, the identified high priority areas can be used for implementing actions for controlling the population growth and further preventing the infestation of the free-ranging dogs into the new areas.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Amira Sharief
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
- Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, 248001, India
- WSL Swiss Federal Research Institute, 8903, Zurcherstrasse, Switzerland
| | - Vineet Kumar
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
- Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, 248001, India
| | - Hemant Singh
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
| | | | | | - Ritam Dutta
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
| | - Stanzin Dolker
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
| | - Amar Paul Singh
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
| | | | - Avtar Kaur Sidhu
- High Altitude Regional Centre, Zoological Survey of India, Solan, Himachal Pradesh, 173211, India
| | - Mukesh Thakur
- Zoological Survey of India, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700053, India
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Eacker DR, Jakes AF, Jones PF. Spatiotemporal risk factors predict landscape‐scale survivorship for a northern ungulate. Ecosphere 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/11/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Andrew F. Jakes
- Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute Missoula Montana USA
- National Wildlife Federation Missoula Montana USA
| | - Paul F. Jones
- Alberta Conservation Association Lethbridge Alberta Canada
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DeVoe JD, Proffitt KM, Millspaugh JJ. Fence types influence pronghorn movement responses. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4285] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jesse D. DeVoe
- Wildlife Biology Program University of Montana Missoula Montana USA
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