Prospective assessment of consensus criteria for evaluation of patients with suspected choledocholithiasis

Development and validation of a predictive model for choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

Gallstone-related conditions affect a significant portion of the population, with varying prevalence among different ethnic groups. Complications such as pancreatitis and cholangitis are associated with the presence of common bile duct (CBD) stones. Existing guidelines for diagnosing choledocholithiasis lack precision, leading to excessive use of invasive procedures like endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted at Hospital Central "Dr. Ignacio Morones Prieto," involving 374 patients in the development cohort and 154 patients in the validation cohort. Patients meeting inclusion criteria underwent biochemical testing and ultrasonography. A predictive scoring system was developed using logistic regression and validated in an independent cohort. Clinical and laboratory variables were collected, and model performance was assessed using receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The predictive model incorporated variables such as age, pancreatitis, cholangitis, bilirubin levels, and CBD stone presence on ultrasound. The model demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 93.81% in the validation dataset. By adjusting the threshold defining high-risk probability to 40%, the model improved specificity and sensitivity compared to existing guidelines. Notably, the model reclassified patients, leading to a more accurate risk assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

The developed algorithm accurately predicts choledocholithiasis non-invasively in patients with symptomatic gallstones. This tool has the potential to reduce reliance on costly or invasive procedures like magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography and ERCP, offering a more efficient and cost-effective approach to patient management. The user-friendly calculator developed in this study could streamline diagnostic procedures, particularly in resource-limited healthcare settings, ultimately improving patient care.

Endoscopic ultrasound avoids diagnostic ERCP among the ASGE high-risk group - Experience in an Asian population

BACKGROUND

A prediction system for common bile duct (CBD) stones was originally published by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) in 2010 and was last revised in 2019. We wanted to investigate its application in an Asian population, who have different etiologies of bile duct stone formation and accessibility to medical service compared to the West.

METHODS

This is a single center retrospective study. Patients who received endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for suspected CBD stones were collected from our endoscopic record system over a 10-year period. The accuracy of the revised ASGE criteria was estimated according to the results of EUS. A minimum follow-up of 6 months was required to detect false negative results.

RESULTS

142 patients were enrolled, 87 (61%) patients had CBD stones. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the revised ASGE criteria for high-risk patients were 69%, 38%, 64%, 44%, and 57%. 36% of the ASGE-defined high-risk patients negative for CBD stones on EUS. The two significant predictors for CBD stone were CBD dilatation (adjusted OR 3.06, 95% C.I. 1.31-7.17, p = 0.010) and ascending cholangitis (adjusted OR 2.28, 95% C.I. 1.01-5.15, p = 0.047).

CONCLUSION

ASGE recommends that patients defined as high-risk for choledocholithiasis be considered for direct ERCP without prior need for confirmation imaging. However, our findings indicate a high rate (36%) of patients in that group negative for CBD stones on EUS. Hence, EUS is still be suggested first in selective high-risk patients so that diagnostic ERCP can be avoided in our Asian society.

Performance of the predictive criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in the diagnosis of choledocholithiasis at a secondary care public hospital in the State of Nuevo León, Mexico

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Currently there is no ideal diagnostic/therapeutic approach for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. The primary aim of our study was to evaluate the performance of the criteria for predicting choledocholithiasis proposed by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) in 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted that included 352 patients seen at a secondary care public healthcare institution in Monterrey, Nuevo León, that treats an open population and does not have endoscopic ultrasound or magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography at its disposal.

RESULTS

The most frequent predictor presented by the patients was abnormal liver function tests (90.63%), and with their use alone, sensitivity was higher than that of all the predictors analyzed (91.41%). In addition, the finding of common bile duct stones on ultrasound imaging was the only predictor independently associated with the confirmatory diagnosis of choledocholithiasis. Regarding the general performance of the 2019 criteria, the high-risk category had 68.75% sensitivity, 52.08% specificity, a positive predictive value of 79.28%, a negative predictive value of 38.46%, diagnostic accuracy of 64.20%, and a confirmatory diagnosis of choledocholithiasis in 79.28% of the patients of that risk category.

CONCLUSIONS

The study corroborated that the presence of choledocholithiasis could be predicted using the choledocholithiasis predictors and risk categories proposed by the ASGE, with acceptable accuracy, in accordance with the standards suggested by those same guidelines.

Diagnostic accuracy of updated risk assessment criteria and development of novel computational prediction models for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis

BACKGROUND

There are risks of choledocholithiasis in symptomatic gallstones, and some surgeons have proposed the identification of choledocholithiasis before cholecystectomy. Our goal was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the latest guidelines and create computational prediction models for the accurate prediction of choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed symptomatic gallstone patients hospitalized with suspected choledocholithiasis. The diagnostic performance of 2019 and 2010 guidelines of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) and 2019 guideline of the European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) in different risks. Lastly, we developed novel prediction models based on the preoperative predictors.

RESULTS

A total of 1199 patients were identified and 681 (56.8%) had concurrent choledocholithiasis and were included in the analysis. The specificity of the 2019 ASGE, 2010 ASGE, and 2019 ESGE high-risk criteria was 85.91%, 72.2%, and 88.42%, respectively, and their positive predictive values were 85.5%, 77.4%, and 87.3%, respectively. For Mid-risk patients who followed 2019 ASGE about 61.8% of them did not have CBD stones in our study. On the choice of surgical procedure, laparoscopic cholecystectomy + laparoscopic transcystic common bile duct exploration can be considered the optimal treatment choice for cholecysto-choledocholithiasis instead of Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangio-Pancreatography (ERCP). We build seven machine learning models and an AI diagnosis prediction model (ModelArts). The area under the receiver operating curve of the machine learning models was from 0.77 to 0.81. ModelArts AI model showed predictive accuracy of 0.97, recall of 0.97, precision of 0.971, and F1 score of 0.97, surpassing any other available methods.

CONCLUSION

The 2019 ASGE guideline and 2019 ESGE guideline have demonstrated higher specificity and positive predictive value for high-risk criteria compared to the 2010 ASGE guideline. The excellent diagnostic performance of the new artificial intelligence prediction model may make it a better choice than traditional guidelines for managing patients with suspected choledocholithiasis in future.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the 2010 ASGE non-invasive predictors of choledocholithiasis and comparison to the 2019 ASGE predictors

In 2019, the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guideline on the endoscopic management of choledocholithiasis modified the individual predictors of choledocholithiasis proposed in the widely referenced 2010 guideline to improve predictive performance. Nevertheless, the primary literature, especially for the 2019 iteration, is limited. We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis to examine the diagnostic performance of the 2010, and where possible the 2019, predictors. PROSPERO protocol CRD42020194226. A comprehensive literature search from 2001 to 2020 was performed to identify studies on the diagnostic performance of any of the 2010 and 2019 ASGE choledocholithiasis predictors. Identified studies underwent keyword screening, abstract review, and full-text review. The primary outcomes included multivariate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for each criterion. Secondary outcomes were reported sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive value. A total of 20 studies met inclusion criteria. Based on reported ORs, of the 2010 guideline “very strong” predictors, ultrasound with stone had the strongest performance. Of the “strong” predictors, CBD > 6 mm demonstrated the strongest performance. “Moderate” predictors had inconsistent and/or weak performance; moreover, all studies reported gallstone pancreatitis as non-predictive of choledocholithiasis. Only one study examined the new predictor (bilirubin > 4 mg/dL and CBD > 6 mm) proposed in the 2019 guideline. Based on this review, aside from CBD stone on ultrasound, there is discordance between the proposed strength of 2010 choledocholithiasis predictors and their published diagnostic performance. The 2019 guideline appears to do away with the weakest 2010 predictors.

Comparison of Endoscopy First and Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy First Strategies for Patients With Gallstone Disease and Intermediate Risk of Choledocholithiasis: Protocol for a Clinical Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

The optimal approach for patients with gallbladder stones and intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis remains undetermined. The use of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for diagnosis should be minimized as it carries considerable risk of postprocedural complications, and nowadays, less invasive and safer techniques are available.

Objective

This study compares the two management strategies of endoscopic ultrasound before laparoscopic cholecystectomy and intraoperative cholangiography for patients with symptomatic cholecystolithiasis and intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis.

Methods

This is a randomized, active-controlled, single-center clinical trial enrolling adult patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallbladder stones with intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis. The risk of choledocholithiasis is calculated using an original prognostic score (the Vilnius University Hospital Index). This index in a retrospective evaluation showed better prognostic performance than the score proposed by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy in 2010. A total of 106 participants will be included and randomized into two groups. Evaluation of bile ducts using endoscopic ultrasound and endoscopic retrograde cholangiography on demand will be performed before laparoscopic cholecystectomy for one arm (“endoscopy first”). Intraoperative cholangiography during laparoscopic cholecystectomy and postoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography on demand will be performed in another arm (“cholecystectomy first”). Postoperative follow-up is 6 months. The primary endpoint is the length of hospital stay. The secondary endpoints are accuracy of the different management strategies, adverse events of the interventions, duct clearance and technical success of the interventions (intraoperative cholangiography, endoscopic ultrasound, and endoscopic retrograde cholangiography), and cost of treatment.

Results

The trial protocol was approved by the Vilnius Regional Biomedical Research Ethics Committee in December 2017. Enrollment of patients was started in January 2018. As of June 2020, 66 patients have been enrolled.

Conclusions

This trial is planned to determine the superior strategy for patients with intermediate risk of common bile duct stones and to define a simple and safe algorithm for managing choledocholithiasis.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03658863; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03658863.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/18837

Evaluating the Revised American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Guidelines for Common Bile Duct Stone Diagnosis

Background/Aims

The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) revised its guidelines for risk stratification of patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic performance of the revision and to compare it to the previous guidelines.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 267 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. We identified high-risk patients according to the original and revised guidelines and examined the diagnostic accuracy of both guidelines. We measured the association between individual criteria and choledocholithiasis.

Results

Under the original guidelines, 165 (62%) patients met the criteria for high risk, of whom 79% had confirmed choledocholithiasis. The categorization had a sensitivity and specificity of 68% and 55%, respectively, for the detection of choledocholithiasis. Under the revised guidelines, 86 (32%) patients met the criteria for high risk, of whom 83% had choledocholithiasis. The revised categorization had a lower sensitivity and higher specificity of 37% and 80%, respectively. The positive predictive value of the high-risk categorization increased with the revision, reflecting a potential decrease in diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatograpies (ERCPs). Stone visualized on imaging had the greatest specificity for choledocholithiasis. Gallstone pancreatitis was not associated with the risk for choledocholithiasis.

Conclusions

The 2019 revision of the ASGE guidelines decreases the utilization of ERCP as a diagnostic modality and offers an improved risk stratification tool.

A validated score predicting common bile duct stone in patients hospitalized with acute calculus cholecystitis: a multi-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Concomitant common bile duct (CBD) stone in the setting of acute calculous cholecystitis (ACC) should be suspected once abnormal liver indices are noticed.

AIM

We aimed to identify predictors of CBD stone in patients hospitalized with ACC.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective multi-center, case-controlled, study from 1st of January 2016 until the 31th of December 2018. Inclusion criteria included patients with an established diagnosis of ACC based on clinical, laboratory and radiological criteria and who had an endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for suspected CBD stone. One-hundred and twelve patients were included, of these fifty-three patients (47.3%) were diagnosed with CBD stone by EUS.

RESULTS

In univariate analysis, Age (OR 1.038, P = 0.001), total bilirubin (mg/dl) (OR 1.429, P = 0.02) and CBD width (mm) by US (OR 1.314, P = 0.01) were statistically significant in predicting CBD stone and remained significant in multivariate regression analysis. We developed a diagnostic score that included these three parameters, with assignment of weights for each variable according to the coefficient estimate. A low cut-off score of 0 was associated with sensitivity of 100% for CBD stone, whereas a high cut-off score of 3 was associated with sensitivity of 10% and specificity of 96.6% with a positive predictive value of 67% (ROC of 0.7558). We validated this score with an independent cohort (ROC of 0.7416) with a sensitivity of 46.6%, a specificity of 91.5% and a PPV of 87.1%.

CONCLUSION

We recommend incorporating this score as an aid for stratifying patients with ACC into low or high probability for concomitant CBD stone.

Predicting common bile duct stones by non-invasive parameters

BACKGROUND

Common bile duct (CBD) stone affect about 10% of patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis. The American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) published a strategy in 2010 for managing patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. This study aimed to assess the performance of different clinical parameters in predicting CBD stones.

METHODS

A total of 344 patients suspected to suffer from CBD stone and referred to endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) were included. Parameters were collected and their prediction power for CBD stones was assessed.

RESULTS

One hundred and sixty-seven patients without CBD stone according to EUS (group A) were compared to 177 patients with CBD stones (group B). Several predictive factors for CBD stone were identified on univariate analysis. In multivariate regression analysis, CBD width by US (OR = 1.224, 95% CI: 1.073-1.359; P = 0.0026), age (OR = 1.023, 95% CI: 1.011-1.035; P = 0.0002) and gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) level (OR = 1.001, 95% CI: 1.000-1.002; P = 0.0018) were significantly correlated with CBD stone, with receiver operator characteristics (ROC) of 0.7259. We generated a diagnostic equation [age (yr) × 0.1 + CBD width (mm) by US × 1 + GGT (U/L) × 0.005] to predict CBD stone with ROC of 0.7287.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest this score as a very strong predictor for CBD stones, and to reduce the strength of total bilirubin and transaminases as predictors.

The Role of Laparoscopic Ultrasonography in the Evaluation of Suspected Choledocholithiasis. A Single-Center Experience

Background and objectives: Opinions differ regarding the optimal diagnostic methods for patients with suspected choledocholithiasis. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of laparoscopic ultrasonography (LUS) and compare it to pre-operative magnetic resonance cholangio-pancreatography (MRCP); Materials and Methods: In all patients with suspected choledocholithiasis LUS was performed during laparoscopic cholecystectomy to evaluate biliary stones. According to availability, part of the patients had pre-operative MRCP. Data for diagnostic accuracy and main outcomes were collected prospectively and analyzed retrospectively; Results: Choledocholithiasis was detected in 178 of 297 patients by LUS (59.93%) and in 39 of 87 patients by MRCP (44.8%), p = 0.041. LUS yielded a sensitivity of 99.4%, a specificity of 94.3%, a positive predictive value of 96.1% and a negative predictive value of 99.1%. However, pre-operative MRCP had a sensitivity of 61.7%, a specificity of 92.3%, a positive predictive value of 94.9% and a negative predictive value of 51.1%. Moreover, of the 47 patients with no choledocholithiasis by MRCP, in 23 cases it was later detected by LUS (a false negative MRCP finding—38.3%), p < 0.001. Median duration of hospitalization was significantly shorter in patients evaluated without pre-operative MRCP—8 days (interquartile range – IQR 11–6) vs. 11 days (IQR 14–9), p = 0.001; Conclusions: LUS may reduce the role of pre-operative MRCP and can become a rational alternative to MRCP as a primary imaging technique for the detection of choledocholithiasis.

Prevalence and Predictors of Unnecessary Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography in the Two-Stage Endoscopic Stone Extraction Followed by Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy

BACKGROUNDS

A two-stage procedure involving endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), followed by cholecystectomy, is one of the primary treatments of concomitant gallstones and choledocholithiasis. However, negative findings on ERCP and migrating gallstones after cholecystectomy are major concerns. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of unnecessary ERCP and to develop and validate a predictive nomogram using preoperative factors in patients who underwent a two-stage procedure.

METHODS

Consecutive 931 patients were treated with the two-stage procedure for evident gallstones and suspected choledocholithiasis. After the cholecystectomy, a cholangiogram was performed to confirm the absence of the migrating gallstones. The patients were divided into derivation (n = 652) and validation (n = 279) cohorts.

RESULTS

A total of 26.5% (247/931) patients had unnecessary ERCP (negative choledocholithiasis, 14.6%; migrating gallstones, 11.9%). No stones on images (P < 0.001), total bilirubin < 1.2 mg/dL (P = 0.006), and common bile duct diameter < 8.0 mm (P = 0.004) were independent factors associated with negative finding on ERCP with a validated nomogram area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.80). For migrating gallstones after cholecystectomy, radiolucent gallstones (P < 0.001), gallstone size ≤ 6.4 mm (P = 0.001), cystic duct stones (P < 0.001), gallbladder wall thickness ≥ 3.2 mm (P = 0.003), and low-lying cystic duct (P < 0.001) were independent factors with a validated nomogram AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.68-0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

About one fourth of the patients may have unnecessary ERCP in the two-stage procedure. Based on our nomogram using preoperative factors, high-risk patients who are more likely to perform unnecessary ERCP could be considered for the one-stage procedure.

Diagnostic performance of the current risk-stratified approach with computed tomography for suspected choledocholithiasis and its options when negative finding

BACKGROUND

Several studies evaluated the current guideline of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) and reported only suboptimal accuracy. This study evaluated the diagnostic performance of the ASGE guideline based on computed tomography (CT) and role of endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis but negative CT finding.

METHODS

Patients with suspected choledocholithiasis undergoing ERCP between January 2016 and January 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent CT to detect choledocholithiasis. EUS or MRCP was performed when the CT scan showed negative findings. Patients were classified into the high and intermediate-risk groups, based on predictors from the ASGE criteria.

RESULTS

Of 583 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis, 340 (58.3%) had stones on ERCP (65.9% in the high-risk group and 40.6% in the intermediate-risk group). The accuracy of ASGE guideline for CT was 63.98% (79.12% sensitivity, 42.80% specificity) and 36.02% (20.88% sensitivity, 57.20% specificity) in the high-risk and intermediate-risk groups, respectively. In 103 patients in the high-risk group underwent both CT and US, the accuracy of CT was higher than that of US for detecting choledocholithiasis (78.64% vs. 53.40%), with a significant difference in area under the curve (AUC) (0.78 vs. 0.59, P < 0.001). Of 339 with negative CT finding, the accuracy of EUS was higher than that of MRCP (90.91% vs. 82.76%), but with no significant difference in AUC (0.91 vs. 0.83, P = 0.347).

CONCLUSIONS

CT-based ASGE guideline showed superior diagnostic performance than US for predicting choledocholithiasis. The diagnostic options, EUS or MRCP, with negative CT finding showed comparable performance. Therefore, the diagnostic modality should be selected based on availability, experience, cost, and contraindications.

Standardization of common bile duct size using ultrasound in pediatric patients

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The incidence of choledocholithiasis is increasing. The diagnosis of common bile duct (CBD) obstruction is based on abnormal CBD size. Establishing norms for CBD size in children would improve diagnostic accuracy. We analyzed ultrasounds (US) to determine normal pediatric CBD size based on age and then validated this against patients with choledocholithiasis.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted for children less than 21 years of age with US defined CBD size. Patients were stratified into age groups by ANOVA statistical analysis. Secondary analysis included patients with confirmed choledocholithiasis in comparison to the normal cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 778 patients had US without pathology. Group 1 (<1 year) had a mean CBD of 1.24±0.54 mm, group 2 (1-10 years) 1.97±0.71 mm, and group 3 (>10 years) 2.98±1.17 mm, p<0.05. Fourteen additional patients were found to have choledocholithiasis with a mean CBD size of 8.1 mm. All patients with choledocholithiasis had CBD sizes outside of our normal range, but only 50% of patients had enlarged CBD size based on adult normal range of values.

CONCLUSION

Normal CBD size in children is less than a normal adult patient. More accurate normal values will aid in determining if a child needs further evaluation for possible obstruction of the CBD.

TYPE OF STUDY

diagnostic Level of evidence: III.

Current clinical algorithms for predicting common bile duct stones have only moderate accuracy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

A risk-stratified approach for selecting patients likely to harbor common bile duct (CBD) stones to proceed directly to endoscopic or surgical stone clearance, rather than undergo less invasive testing, has been proposed. We assessed the performance of three clinical algorithms used to predict CBD stones.

METHODS

All patients undergoing first-time endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in 2011-2012 as a result of suspected CBD stones were enrolled prospectively in a clinical database. Data such as imaging test findings and liver function tests (LFTs) were collected 48 h prior to and on the day of ERCP. Patients were stratified into different risk groups for harboring CBD stones according to three clinical algorithms using imaging and laboratory data. Findings on ERCP were used as gold standard. Performance characteristics of each algorithm were separately calculated for each time point of LFT assessment.

RESULTS

Overall, 186 patients were analyzed, 75% of whom presented CBD stones on ERCP. Proportion of patients categorized as high-risk for harboring CBD stones varied among the three algorithms (67% vs 73% vs 56%). Also, the algorithms showed only moderate, albeit comparable, accuracy for predicting the presence of CBD stones (0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.68 vs 0.68, 95% CI 0.63-0.67 vs 0.59, 95% CI 0.57-0.61). Similar results were obtained when performance characteristics were recalculated using LFT from 48 h prior to ERCP (data not shown).

CONCLUSION

Three diagnostic algorithms commonly used for predicting CBD stones have comparable but only moderate accuracy. Further research is warranted to improve risk stratification of patients with suspected CBD stones.

Accuracy of Imaging Modalities in Choledocholithiasis: A Real-Life Data

In this retrospective study of real-life data, we aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy in patients with choledocholithiasis of some current imaging modalities, including ultrasonography (US), computerized tomography (CT), magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). This study utilized a database of imaging records from 86 consecutive patients with ERCP-proven choledocholithiasis in a single-center outpatient clinic. Features of the stones found, namely number, size, localization, choledochal dilation and cholestasis, were determined using various imaging modalities and liver function tests (LFTs). Our study focused on a total of 86 patients (43 female; 43 male) who underwent the ERCP procedure. Hepatobiliary ultrasound was performed in 71 (82.6%); MRCP in 59 (68.6%); and CT in 13 (15.1%) patients. All 86 patients had choledocholithiasis: 59 (68.6%) with multiple stones and 21 (24.4%) with stones over 10 mm in diameter. Sensitivity for the presence of choledocholithiasis was 40.8% for US, 76.9% for CT, and 86.4% for MRCP, where ERCP was taken as the reference method. Even though US, CT, and MRCP are widely used as noninvasive imaging modalities for CL, in our real-life data their sensitivity for choledocholithiasis was lower than expected. MRCP is preferred when a nontherapeutic but only diagnostic evaluation is aimed for; however, while highly competent in establishing the level of choledochal dilation, it had a low yield in differentiating the localization, size, and number of the stone(s).

Risk assessment of choledocholithiasis prior to laparoscopic cholecystectomy and its management options

Background

Accurate risk evaluation of choledocholithiasis prior to laparoscopic cholecystectomy is essential to determine optimal management strategy.

Objective

Our study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of separate predictors and Vilnius University Hospital Index (VUHI = A/30 + 0.4 × B; A = total bilirubin concentration (µmol/l), B = common bile duct (CBD) diameter (mm) measured by ultrasound) diagnosing choledocholithiasis and to assess different management strategies (cholecystectomy with intraoperative cholangiography and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)).

Methods

The retrospective study included 350 patients admitted to a tertiary care centre for laparoscopic cholecystectomy for cholecystolithiasis who were investigated for concomitant choledocholithiasis.

Results

Choledocholithiasis was diagnosed in 182 (76.2%) cases in the high-risk group (VUHI value ≥4.7) and 44 (39.6%) in the low, odds ratio is 4.86 (95% CI: 3.00-7.88). Its sensitivity was 80.5%, specificity 54.0%, accuracy 71.1%. Dilated CBD had the highest sensitivity (92.5%) of predictors.ERCP showed better diagnostic performance than intraoperative cholangiography. Complications of ERCP were more frequent for patients without stones. There was no significant difference of outcomes between the two management strategies.

Conclusion

The prognostic index has good diagnostic accuracy but dividing patients into two risk groups is insufficient. The suggested model allows determining an intermediate-risk group, which requires additional investigation. Both management approaches are appropriate.

Accuracy of ASGE high-risk criteria in evaluation of patients with suspected common bile duct stones

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

ERCP is recommended for patients considered high risk for choledocholithiasis after biochemical testing and abdominal US. Our aim was to determine whether the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines accurately select patients for whom the risk of ERCP is justified.

METHODS

Consecutive patients hospitalized with suspected choledocholithiasis at Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital who received biochemical testing, abdominal US, and definitive testing for choledocholithiasis (MRCP, EUS, ERCP, intraoperative cholangiogram, and/or common bile duct [CBD] exploration) were identified. Patients with choledocholithiasis on abdominal US, with bilirubin levels >4 mg/dL (normal values <1.2 mg/dL), bilirubin levels ≥1.8 mg/dL plus a dilated CBD and/or clinical cholangitis were considered high risk per ASGE guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 2724 patients with suspected choledocholithiasis, 1171 (43%) met high-risk criteria. Definitive testing (MRCP in 2442 [90%], EUS in 67 [2%], ERCP in 659 [24%], intraoperative cholangiogram in 229 [8%], and CBD exploration in 447 [16%]) revealed choledocholithiasis in 1076 [40%] patients. The specificity of the ASGE high-risk criteria was 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72%-77%) and positive predictive value was 64% (95% CI, 61%-67%). Using a more restrictive criteria (choledocholithiasis on abdominal US, bilirubin >4 mg/dL plus dilated CBD) improved the specificity to 94% (95% CI, 93%-95%) and positive predictive value to 85% (95% CI, 82%-88%). Doubling or more of bilirubin to >4 mg/dL and ≥1.8 mg/dL at second testing had specificities of 98% (95% CI, 96%-99%) and 95% (95% CI, 93%-96%), with positive predictive values of 62% (95% CI, 48%-76%) and 54% (95% CI, 44%-65%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although ASGE high-risk criteria demonstrated >50% probability of the patient having choledocholithiasis, more than a third of the patients would receive diagnostic ERCPs. Criteria with choledocholithiasis on abdominal US and/or bilirubin levels >4 mg/dL plus a dilated CBD showed higher specificity and positive predictive value.