Which variable better predicts the risk of lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer: Highest grade or predominant histological differentiation?

Efficacy of a whole slide image-based prediction model for lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Accurate stratification of the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) following endoscopic resection of submucosal invasive (T1) colorectal cancer (CRC) is imperative for determining the necessity for additional surgery. In this systematic review, we evaluated the efficacy of prediction of LNM by artificial intelligence (AI) models utilizing whole slide image (WSI) in patients with T1 CRC.

METHODS

In accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, a systematic review was conducted through searches in PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, and the Cochrane Library for relevant studies published up to December 2023. The inclusion criteria were studies assessing the accuracy of hematoxylin and eosin-stained WSI-based AI models for predicting LNM in patients with T1 CRC.

RESULTS

Four studies met the criteria for inclusion in this systematic review. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for these AI models ranged from 0.57 to 0.76. In the three studies in which AI performance was compared directly with current treatment guidelines, AI consistently exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. At a fixed sensitivity of 100%, specificities ranged from 18.4% to 45.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

Artificial intelligence models based on WSI can potentially address the issue of diagnostic variability between pathologists and exceed the predictive accuracy of current guidelines. However, these findings require confirmation by larger studies that incorporate external validation.

Differentiation grade as a risk factor for lymph node metastasis in T1 colorectal cancer

Objectives

Japanese guidelines include high-grade (poorly differentiated) tumors as a risk factor for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in T1 colorectal cancer (CRC). However, whether the grading is based on the least or most predominant component when the lesion consists of two or more levels of differentiation varies among institutions. This study aimed to investigate which method is optimal for assessing the risk of LNM in T1 CRC.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated 971 consecutive patients with T1 CRC who underwent initial or additional surgical resection from 2001 to 2021 at our institution. Tumor grading was divided into low-grade (well- to moderately differentiated) and high-grade based on the least or predominant differentiation analyses. We investigated the correlations between LNM and these two grading analyses.

Results

LNM was present in 9.8% of patients. High-grade tumors, as determined by least differentiation analysis, accounted for 17.0%, compared to 0.8% identified by predominant differentiation analysis. A significant association with LNM was noted for the least differentiation method (p < 0.05), while no such association was found for predominant differentiation (p = 0.18). In multivariate logistic regression, grading based on least differentiation was an independent predictor of LNM (p = 0.04, odds ratio 1.68, 95% confidence interval 1.00-2.83). Sensitivity and specificity for detecting LNM were 27.4% and 84.1% for least differentiation, and 2.1% and 99.3% for predominant differentiation, respectively.

Conclusions

Tumor grading via least differentiation analysis proved to be a more reliable measure for assessing LNM risk in T1 CRC compared to grading by predominant differentiation.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Highest-Grade or Predominant Histological Differentiation of T1 Colorectal Cancer in Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Treatment guidelines for colorectal cancer (CRC) suggest 2 classifications for histological differentiation-highest grade and predominant. However, the optimal predictor of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in T1 CRC remains unknown. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the impact of the use of highest-grade or predominant differentiation on LNM determination in T1 CRC.

METHODS

The study protocol is registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO, registration number: CRD42023416971) and was published in OSF ( https://osf.io/TMAUN/ ) on April 13, 2023. We searched 5 electronic databases for studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of highest-grade or predominant differentiation to determine LNM in T1 CRC. The outcomes were sensitivity and specificity. We simulated 100 cases with T1 CRC, with an LNM incidence of 11.2%, to calculate the differences in false positives and negatives between the highest-grade and predominant differentiations using a bootstrap method.

RESULTS

In 42 studies involving 41,290 patients, the differentiation classification had a pooled sensitivity of 0.18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13-0.24) and 0.06 (95% CI 0.04-0.09) ( P < 0.0001) and specificity of 0.95 (95% CI 0.93-0.96) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99) ( P < 0.0001) for the highest-grade and predominant differentiations, respectively. In the simulation, the differences in false positives and negatives between the highest-grade and predominant differentiations were 3.0% (range 1.6-4.4) and -1.3% (range -2.0 to -0.7), respectively.

DISCUSSION

Highest-grade differentiation may reduce the risk of misclassifying cases with LNM as negative, whereas predominant differentiation may prevent unnecessary surgeries. Further studies should examine differentiation classification using other predictive factors.

Curative criteria for endoscopic treatment of colorectal cancer

As endoscopic treatment enables en bloc resection of T1 colorectal cancers, the risk of recurrence, often assimilated to the risk of lymph node metastases, must be assessed in order to offer patients an additional treatment if this risk is deemed significant. The curative criteria currently used by most guidelines are depth of invasion <1 mm, well or moderately differentiated tumour, absence of lympho-vascular invasion, absence of significant budding and tumour-free resection margins. However, these factors must be assessed by qualified pathologists, as they are difficult to evaluate. Moreover, the combination of these factors leads to unnecessary surgery in over 80 % of patients whose tumours are classified as high risk. Refinement of current criteria and research into new tumour and immunological markers are needed to better predict the actual risk of our patients.