Prediction and validation of exenatide risk marker effects on progression of renal disease: Insights from EXSCEL

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists and kidney outcomes

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have gained increasing attention for their potential benefits in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Most supportive evidence of a kidney-protective effect of the GLP-1RA class of medications has been derived from kidney-related outcomes reported from cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs). GLP-1RAs have been shown to reduce albuminuria, mitigate cardiovascular risk, and possibly attenuate estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. The kidney-protective effects of GLP-1RAs are thought to be attributed to their anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and vasodilatory properties. Despite these promising findings, the use of GLP-RAs has yet to be definitively shown to slow progression to chronic kidney failure in people with T2DM. The Research Study to See How Semaglutide Works Compared to Placebo in People With Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease (FLOW trial) is the first major trial assessing the potential of a GLP-1RA to slow progression of kidney disease in people with established CKD to clinically important kidney end points. On March 5, 2024, the top line result from FLOW was announced with semaglutide 1.0 mg being reported to reduce the primary end point of the trial by a significant 24% compared with placebo. Here, we summarize the kidney outcomes reported from CVOTs for the GLP-1RA class of medication and briefly describe kidney outcomes from other major GLP-1RAs trials. We also discuss a potential role of the dual GLP-1/glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptor agonist, tirzepatide, as a kidney-protective agent.

Potential kidney protective effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) have gained increasing attention for their potential benefits in people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This class of medication has demonstrated promising results in reducing albuminuria, preserving estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and mitigating cardiovascular (CV) risk, making them potential therapeutic options for individuals with CKD. The kidney protective effects of GLP-1RAs extend beyond glycaemic control, and are thought to be attributed to their anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and natriuretic properties. Despite these promising findings, the use of GLP-RAs has yet to be definitively shown to slow progression to chronic kidney failure, or reduce CV and kidney related death in people with T2DM and CKD. The Research Study to See How Semaglutide (a once weekly subcutaneous administered GLP-1RA) Works Compared to Placebo in People with Type 2 Diabetes and Chronic Kidney Disease (FLOW trial) was recently stopped because of efficacy. The primary end point for the FLOW trial consists of a composite endpoint of (i) onset of chronic kidney failure; (ii) death from kidney failure; (iii) cardiovascular death; and (iv) onset of a persistent ≥50% reduction in eGFR from baseline. It has also been reported by the sponsors of the trial that the primary end point of the trial was reduced by 24% with both CKD and CV outcomes contributing to risk reduction. In anticipation of the results of the FLOW trial being published, we review the current evidence surrounding kidney outcomes and proposed kidney protective pathways associated with GLP-1RA use.

The concomitant use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors improved the renal outcome of Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes treated with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists

Aims

This study aimed to clarify the renal influence of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP1Ras) with or without sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) on Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods

We retrospectively extracted 547 patients with T2DM who visited the clinics of members of Kanagawa Physicians Association. The progression of albuminuria status and/or a ≥ 15% decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) per year was set as the renal composite outcome. Propensity score matching was performed to compare GLP1Ra-treated patients with and without SGLT2i.

Results

After matching, 186 patients in each group were compared. There was no significant difference of the incidence of the renal composite outcomes (17% vs. 20%, P = 0.50); however, the annual decrease in the eGFR was significantly smaller and the decrease in the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was larger in GLP1Ra-treated patients with the concomitant use of SGLT2is than in those without it (-1.1 ± 5.0 vs. -2.8 ± 5.1 mL/min/1.73 m2, P = 0.001; and -0.08 ± 0.61 vs. 0.05 ± 0.52, P = 0.03, respectively).

Conclusion

The concomitant use of SGLT2i with GLP1Ra improved the annual decrease in the eGFR and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio in Japanese patients with T2DM.

Comparative Efficacy of Novel Antidiabetic Drugs on Albuminuria Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Albuminuria, or elevated urinary albumin-to-creatine ratio (UACR), is a biomarker for chronic kidney disease that is routinely monitored in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Head-to-head comparisons of novel antidiabetic drugs on albuminuria outcomes remain limited. This systematic review qualitatively compared the efficacy of novel antidiabetic drugs on improving albuminuria outcomes in patients with T2D.

METHODS

We searched the MEDLINE database until December 2022 for Phase 3 or 4 randomized, placebo-controlled trials that evaluated the effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors on changes in UACR and albuminuria categories in patients with T2D.

RESULTS

Among 211 records identified, 27 were included, which reported on 16 trials. SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 RAs decreased UACR by 19-22% and 17-33%, respectively, versus placebo (P < 0.05 for all studies) over median follow-up of ≥ 2 years; DPP-4 inhibitors showed varying effects on UACR. Compared with placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors decreased the risk for albuminuria onset by 16-20% and for albuminuria progression by 27-48% (P < 0.05 for all studies) and promoted albuminuria regression (P < 0.05 for all studies) over median follow-up of ≥ 2 years. Evidence on changes in albuminuria categories with GLP-1 RA or DPP-4 inhibitor treatment were limited with varying outcome definitions across studies and potential drug-specific effects within each class. The effect of novel antidiabetic drugs on UACR or albuminuria outcomes at ≤ 1 year remains poorly studied.

CONCLUSION

Among the novel antidiabetic drugs, SGLT2 inhibitors consistently improved UACR and albuminuria outcomes in patients with T2D, with continuous treatment showing long-term benefit.

The importance of targeting multiple risk markers in patients with type 2 diabetes: A post-hoc study from the CANVAS programme

AIMS

To investigate the extent to which improvements in multiple cardiovascular risk markers are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk participating in the CANVAS programme.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinically relevant improvements in cardiovascular risk factors were defined as a reduction in glycated haemoglobin ≥1.0%, systolic blood pressure ≥10 mmHg, body weight ≥3 kg, urinary-albumin-creatinine ratio ≥30%, uric acid ≥0.5 mg/dl, and an increase in haemoglobin of ≥1.0 g/dl from baseline to week 26. Participants were categorized according to the number of improvements in cardiovascular risk markers: zero, one, two, three, or four or more risk marker improvements. The Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for treatment assignment, demographic variables and laboratory measurements was performed to determine the association between the number of risk marker improvements and risk of a composite cardiovascular, heart failure or kidney outcomes.

RESULTS

We included 9487 (93.5%) participants with available data at baseline and week 26. After week 26, 566 composite cardiovascular, 370 heart failure/cardiovascular death and 153 composite kidney outcomes occurred. The multivariable adjusted hazard ratios associated with four or more improvements in risk markers versus no risk marker improvement were 0.67 (95% CI 0.48, 0.92), 0.58 (95% CI 0.39, 0.87) and 0.49 (95% CI 0.25, 0.96) for the three outcomes respectively. We observed a trend of decreased hazard ratios across subgroups of increasing number of risk marker improvements (p for trend = .008, .02 and .047, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with type 2 diabetes, improvements in multiple risk markers were associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular and kidney outcomes as compared with no risk marker improvement.

Effect of the Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists Semaglutide and Liraglutide on Kidney Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: Pooled Analysis of SUSTAIN 6 and LEADER

BACKGROUND

We assessed the effect of once-weekly semaglutide and once-daily liraglutide on kidney outcomes in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Pooled (n=12 637) and by-trial data from SUSTAIN 6 (Trial to Evaluate Cardiovascular and Other Long-Term Outcomes With Semaglutide in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes; n=3297) and LEADER (Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcome Results; n=9340) were assessed for albuminuria change, annual slope of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change, and time to persistent eGFR reduction (30%, 40%, 50%, and 57%) from baseline.

RESULTS

The median follow-up durations were 2.1 years for SUSTAIN 6 and 3.8 years for LEADER. In the pooled analysis, semaglutide/liraglutide lowered albuminuria from baseline to 2 years after randomization by 24% versus placebo (95% CI, 20%-27%; P<0.001). Significant reductions were also observed in by-trial data analyses (P<0.001 for all), the largest being with semaglutide 1.0 mg (33% [95% CI, 24%-40%]; P<0.001) at 2 years. With semaglutide 1.0 mg and liraglutide, eGFR slope decline was significantly slowed by 0.87 and 0.26 mL/min/1.73 m2/y (P<0.0001 and P<0.001), respectively, versus placebo. Effects appeared larger in patients with baseline eGFR <60 versus ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (Pinteraction=0.06 and 0.008 for semaglutide 1.0 mg and liraglutide, respectively). Semaglutide/liraglutide significantly lowered risk of persistent 40% and 50% eGFR reductions versus placebo (hazard ratio [HR], 0.86 [95% CI, 0.75-0.99]; P=0.039 and HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.66-0.97]; P=0.023, respectively). Similar, nonsignificant, directional results were observed for 30% and 57% eGFR reductions (HR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.84-1.02]; P=0.10 and HR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.69-1.13]; P=0.34). In patients with baseline eGFR 30 to <60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the likelihood of persistent reduction for all thresholds was increased, ranging from HR 0.71 for 30% reduction (95% CI, 0.59-0.85; P=0.0003, Pinteraction=0.017) to 0.54 for 57% reduction (95% CI, 0.36-0.81; P=0.003, Pinteraction=0.035).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide/liraglutide offered kidney-protective effects, which appeared more pronounced in patients with preexisting chronic kidney disease.

Prediction of the Effects of Empagliflozin on Cardiovascular and Kidney Outcomes Based on Short-Term Changes in Multiple Risk Markers

Aims: The EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial demonstrated that the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2) empagliflozin reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. We previously developed the parameter response efficacy (PRE) score, which translates drug effects on multiple short-term risk markers into a predicted long-term treatment effect on clinical outcomes. The main objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the PRE score in predicting the efficacy of empagliflozin in reducing the risk of CV and kidney outcomes. Methods: Short-term (baseline to 6-months) changes in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), urinary-albumin-creatinine-ratio (UACR), hemoglobin, body weight, high-density-lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density-lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, uric acid, and potassium were determined among 7020 patients with type 2 diabetes and established CV disease in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial. The beta-coefficients, derived from a Cox proportional hazards model in a pooled database consisting of 6355 patients with type 2 diabetes, were applied to the short-term risk markers in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial to predict the empagliflozin-induced impact on CV (defined as a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or CV death) and kidney (defined as a composite of doubling of serum creatinine or end-stage kidney disease) outcomes. Results: Empagliflozin compared to placebo reduced HbA1c (0.6%), SBP (4.2 mmHg), UACR (13.0%), body weight (2.1 kg), uric acid (20.4 μmol/L), and increased hemoglobin (6.6 g/L), LDL-cholesterol (0.1 mmol/L) and HDL-cholesterol (0.04 mmol/L) (all p<0.01). Integrating these effects in the PRE score resulted in a predicted relative risk reduction (RRR) for the CV outcome of 6.4% (95% CI 1.4-11.7), which was less than the observed 14.7% (95% CI 1.3-26.4%) RRR. For the kidney outcome, the PRE score predicted a RRR of 33.4% (95% CI 26.2-39.8); the observed RRR was 46.9% (95% CI 26.8-61.5). In a subgroup of 2,811 patients with UACR ≥30 mg/g at baseline, the PRE score predicted RRR was 40.8% (95% CI 31.2-49.1) vs. the observed RRR of 40.8% (95% CI 12.4-60.0) for the kidney outcome. Conclusions: Integrating multiple short-term risk marker changes in the PRE score underestimated the effect of empagliflozin on CV and kidney outcomes, suggesting that the currently used risk markers do not fully capture the effect of empagliflozin. In patients with increased albuminuria, the PRE score adequately predicted the effect of empagliflozin on kidney outcomes.

Precision medicine approaches for diabetic kidney disease: opportunities and challenges

The prevalence of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) continuously increases worldwide. The increasing prevalence parallels the growth in the number of people with diabetes, which is the leading cause of ESKD. Early diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with diabetes and appropriate intervention is important to delay the progression of kidney function decline and prevent ESKD. Rate of CKD progression and response to treatment varies among patients with diabetes, highlighting the need to tailor individual treatment. In this review, we describe recent advances and areas for future studies with respect to precision medicine in diabetic kidney disease (DKD). DKD is a multi-factorial disease that is subject in part to genetic heritability, but is also influenced by various exogenous mediators, such as environmental or dietary factors. Genetic testing so far has limited utility to facilitate early diagnosis, classify progression or evaluate response to therapy. Various biomarker-based approaches are currently explored to identify patients at high risk of ESKD and to facilitate decision-making for targeted therapy. These studies have led to discovery and validation of a couple of inflammatory proteins such as circulating tumour necrosis factor receptors, which are strong predictors of kidney disease progression. Moreover, risk and drug-response scores based on multiple biomarkers are developed to predict kidney disease progression and long-term drug efficacy. These findings, if implemented in clinical practice, will pave the way to move from a one-size-fits-all to a one-fit-for-everyone approach.

A novel drug response score more accurately predicts renoprotective drug effects than existing renal risk scores

BACKGROUND

Risk factor-based equations are used to predict risk of kidney disease progression in patients with type 2 diabetes order to guide treatment decisions. It is, however, unknown whether these models can also be used to predict the effects of drugs on clinical outcomes.

METHODS

The previously developed Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which integrates multiple short-term drug effects, was first compared with the existing risk scores, Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) and The Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) renal risk score, in its performance to predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD; KFRE) and doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD (ADVANCE). Second, changes in the risk scores were compared after 6 months' treatment to predict the long-term effects of losartan on these renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease.

RESULTS

The KFRE, ADVANCE and PRE scores showed similarly good performance in predicting renal risk. However, for prediction of the effect of losartan, the KFRE risk score predicted a relative risk change in the occurrence of ESRD of 3.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) -5 to 12], whereas the observed risk change was -28.8% (95% CI -42.0 to -11.5). For the composite endpoint of doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD, the ADVANCE score predicted a risk change of -12.4% (95% CI -17 to -7), which underestimated the observed risk change -21.8% (95% CI -34 to -6). The PRE score predicted renal risk changes that were close to the observed risk changes with losartan treatment [-24.0% (95% CI -30 to -17) and -22.6% (95% CI -23 to -16) for ESRD and the composite renal outcome, respectively].

CONCLUSION

A drug response score such as the PRE score may assist in improving clinical decision making and implement precision medicine strategies.

Effect of once-weekly exenatide on estimated glomerular filtration rate slope depends on baseline renal risk: A post hoc analysis of the EXSCEL trial

The effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) on renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk are modest or neutral. However, GLP-1RAs may confer clinical benefits in those at high risk of progressive renal function loss. We examined the effects of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) as a function of baseline UACR in 3503 EXSCEL participants (23.7%) with eGFR data available and 2828 participants (19.2%) with UACR change data available. EQW improved eGFR slope assessed via mixed model repeated measures, compared with placebo, in participants with baseline UACR >100 mg/g (0.79 mL/min/1.73 m² /year [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.24-1.34]) and UACR >200 mg/g (1.32 mL/min/1.73 m² /year [95% CI 0.57-2.06]), but not at lower UACR thresholds. EQW reduced UACR, compared with placebo, assessed via analysis of covariance, consistently across subgroups with baseline UACR >30 mg/g (28.2% reduction), baseline UACR >100 mg (22.5% reduction) and baseline UACR >200 mg (34.5% reduction). This post hoc EXSCEL analysis suggests that EQW reduces UACR, with improvement in eGFR slope specifically in participants with elevated baseline UACR.

Prediction and validation of exenatide risk marker effects on progression of renal disease: Insights from EXSCEL

AIM

To assess whether the previously developed multivariable risk prediction framework (PRE score) could predict the renal effects observed in the EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes trial using short-term changes in cardio-renal risk markers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Changes from baseline to 6 months in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), haemoglobin, total cholesterol, and new micro- or macroalbuminuria were evaluated. The renal outcomes were defined as a composite of a sustained 30% or 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Relationships between risk markers and long-term renal outcomes were determined in patients with type 2 diabetes from the ALTITUDE study using multivariable Cox regression analysis, and then applied to short-term changes in risk markers observed in EXSCEL to predict the exenatide-induced impact on renal outcomes.

RESULTS

Compared with placebo, mean HbA1c, BMI, SBP and total cholesterol were lower at 6 months with exenatide, as was the incidence of new microalbuminuria. The PRE score predicted a relative risk reduction for the 30% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint of 11.3% (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.94), compared with 12.7% (HR 0.87; 0.77-0.99) observed risk reduction. For the 40% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint, the predicted and observed risk reductions were 11.0% (HR 0.89; 0.82-0.97) and 13.7% (HR 0.86, 0.72-1.04), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrating short-term risk marker changes into a multivariable risk score predicted the magnitude of renal risk reduction observed in EXSCEL.