The predictive value of the combined systolic-diastolic index for atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass surgery

Risk Scores for Prediction of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Cardiac Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery and is associated with poor clinical outcomes. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the performance of risk scores to predict POAF in cardiac surgery patients. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL for studies that developed/evaluated a POAF risk prediction model. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. We pooled area under the receiver operating curves (AUCs), sensitivity and specificity, and adjusted odds ratios from multivariable regression analyses using the generic inverse variance method and random effects models. Forty-three studies (n = 63,847) were included in the quantitative synthesis. Most scores were originally developed for other purposes but evaluated for predicting POAF. Pooled AUC revealed moderate POAF discrimination for the EuroSCORE II (AUC 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54 to 0.65), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (AUC 0.60, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.63), EuroSCORE (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.68), CHADS2 (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), POAF Score (AUC 0.66, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.68), HATCH (AUC 0.67, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.75), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.68, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) and SYNTAX scores (AUC 0.74, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.78). Pooled analyses at specific cutoffs of the CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH, and POAF scores demonstrated moderate-to-high sensitivity (range 46% to 87%) and low-to-moderate specificity (range 31% to 70%) for POAF prediction. In conclusion, existing clinical risk scores offer at best moderate prediction for POAF after cardiac surgery. Better models are needed to guide POAF risk stratification in cardiac surgery patients.

An early echocardiographic prediction for functional myocardial recovery after ST elevation myocardial infarction

Goals Discrimination of the time course of functional recovery in early period following ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) has prognostic importance. This study aims to establish the ability of the combined systolic-diastolic index (E / (Ea x Sa), for differentiating recoverable myocardium or persistent non-viability in subjects with STEMI.Material and methods 77 patients with first acute STEMI were enrolled to the study. Serial transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) examinations were performed at the time of the admission (immediately after reperfusion), hospital discharge (5±1 days) and control examination (30±2 days). To assess the association between E / (Ea×Sa) index and myocardial recovery, two categories (Transient stunning and persistent non-viability) were defined on basis of improvement of left ventricle ejection fraction (LV EF) (Improvement was defined as an increase more than 10 % in LV EF at day 30 compared to baseline).Results 55 patients (71.4 %) had improvement of LV EF and 24 patients (28.6 %) had no recovery of systolic function (30 days LV EF 48.78±6.1 vs. 39.31±8.1 %, p=0.01). The E / (Ea×Sa) index were significantly higher in the "non-viability" than in stunning group on predischarge and 1 month (1.61±0.64 vs 1.25±0.43, p=0.01 and 1.33±0.25 vs 1.14±0.21, p=0.01, respectively). The change in the E / (Ea×Sa) index in early period (within 5±1 days) was higher in the stunning group (26 %) compared to non-viability group (15 %) (p=0.033). E / (Ea×Sa) index was found to be a significant predictor of myocardial recovery in multivariable logistic regression (OR 0.91, 95 % CI 0.83-0.98, p=0.001). Roc curve showed that the cutoff value of E / (Ea×Sa) index is 1.29 with 73 % of sensitivity and 61 % of specificity (AUC: 0.71, p=0.01, CI: 0.54-0.89).Conclusions Our findings suggest that E / (Ea×Sa) index is a strong predictor of functional recovery; the odds of recovery decreases as E / (Ea×Sa) index value increases.