The 'light touch' of the Black Death in the Southern Netherlands: an urban trick?

Palaeoecological data indicates land-use changes across Europe linked to spatial heterogeneity in mortality during the Black Death pandemic

The Black Death (1347–1352 ce) is the most renowned pandemic in human history, believed by many to have killed half of Europe’s population. However, despite advances in ancient DNA research that conclusively identified the pandemic’s causative agent (bacterium Yersinia pestis), our knowledge of the Black Death remains limited, based primarily on qualitative remarks in medieval written sources available for some areas of Western Europe. Here, we remedy this situation by applying a pioneering new approach, ‘big data palaeoecology’, which, starting from palynological data, evaluates the scale of the Black Death’s mortality on a regional scale across Europe. We collected pollen data on landscape change from 261 radiocarbon-dated coring sites (lakes and wetlands) located across 19 modern-day European countries. We used two independent methods of analysis to evaluate whether the changes we see in the landscape at the time of the Black Death agree with the hypothesis that a large portion of the population, upwards of half, died within a few years in the 21 historical regions we studied. While we can confirm that the Black Death had a devastating impact in some regions, we found that it had negligible or no impact in others. These inter-regional differences in the Black Death’s mortality across Europe demonstrate the significance of cultural, ecological, economic, societal and climatic factors that mediated the dissemination and impact of the disease. The complex interplay of these factors, along with the historical ecology of plague, should be a focus of future research on historical pandemics.

Historical accounts of the mortality outcomes of the Black Death plague pandemic are variable across Europe, with much higher death tolls suggested in some areas than others. Here the authors use a ‘big data palaeoecology’ approach to show that land use change following the pandemic was spatially variable across Europe, confirming heterogeneous responses with empirical data.

Dancing with death. A historical perspective on coping with Covid-19

In this paper, we address the question on how societies coped with pandemic crises, how they tried to control or adapt to the disease, or even managed to overcome the death trap in history. On the basis of historical research, we describe how societies in the western world accommodated to or exited hardship and restrictive measures over the course of the last four centuries. In particular, we are interested in how historically embedded citizens' resources were directed towards living with and to a certain extent accepting the virus. Such an approach of "applied history" to the management of crises and public hazards, we believe, helps address today's pressing question of what adaptive strategies can be adopted to return to a normalized life, including living with socially acceptable medical, hygienic and other pandemic-related measures.

Dutch population structure across space, time and GWAS design

Previous genetic studies have identified local population structure within the Netherlands; however their resolution is limited by use of unlinked markers and absence of external reference data. Here we apply advanced haplotype sharing methods (ChromoPainter/fineSTRUCTURE) to study fine-grained population genetic structure and demographic change across the Netherlands using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data (1,626 individuals) with associated geography (1,422 individuals). We identify 40 haplotypic clusters exhibiting strong north/south variation and fine-scale differentiation within provinces. Clustering is tied to country-wide ancestry gradients from neighbouring lands and to locally restricted gene flow across major Dutch rivers. North-south structure is temporally stable, with west-east differentiation more transient, potentially influenced by migrations during the middle ages. Despite superexponential population growth, regional demographic estimates reveal population crashes contemporaneous with the Black Death. Within Dutch and international data, GWAS incorporating fine-grained haplotypic covariates are less confounded than standard methods.

Mortality and demographic recovery in early post-black death epidemics: Role of recent emigrants in medieval Dijon

Objective and methods

We analyze the influence of population movement on susceptibility to death and resilience during two epidemics occurring in Dijon soon after the Black Death. Using a specific program designed to propose links between entries in annual tax registers, we define tentative heads of household, the elapsed time since their first registration and their ties with other persons within the city.

Results

During the 1400 epidemic heads of household who were registered for 1–3 years die in large numbers, whereas during years without epidemics, their death rate is lower than that of heads of household who were registered longer. Recent registration is an epidemic vulnerability factor only in association with a low taxation status, which, when isolated, does not influence mortality. A lack of familial ties within Dijon is another vulnerability factor among the recently registered. This suggests that poor, recent emigrants are more affected by epidemic mortality. In contrast, the mortality of recently registered heads of household is indistinct during a later epidemic occurring after several years of major famine that may have selected the more resistant emigrants and/or excluded the more miserable of them from our analysis. In contrast to the first one, this second epidemic is followed by rapid demographic recovery. This latter recovery is fully explained by the contribution of poor, newly registered heads of household without ties in Dijon.

Conclusion

Our results outline the interaction between population movement and low socioeconomic status on death susceptibility in historical plagues and show that poor recent emigrants may also be key players in the resilience of the population after an epidemic.

Climate and society in long-term perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls in the use of historical datasets

Recent advances in paleoclimatology and the growing digital availability of large historical datasets on human activity have created new opportunities to investigate long-term interactions between climate and society. However, noncritical use of historical datasets can create pitfalls, resulting in misleading findings that may become entrenched as accepted knowledge. We demonstrate pitfalls in the content, use and interpretation of historical datasets in research into climate and society interaction through a systematic review of recent studies on the link between climate and (a) conflict incidence, (b) plague outbreaks and (c) agricultural productivity changes. We propose three sets of interventions to overcome these pitfalls, which involve a more critical and multidisciplinary collection and construction of historical datasets, increased specificity and transparency about uncertainty or biases, and replacing inductive with deductive approaches to causality. This will improve the validity and robustness of interpretations on the long-term relationship between climate and society. This article is categorized under: Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives.