Reinterpreting maximum entropy in ecology: a null hypothesis constrained by ecological mechanism

Investigating macroecological patterns in coarse-grained microbial communities using the stochastic logistic model of growth

The structure and diversity of microbial communities are intrinsically hierarchical due to the shared evolutionary history of their constituents. This history is typically captured through taxonomic assignment and phylogenetic reconstruction, sources of information that are frequently used to group microbes into higher levels of organization in experimental and natural communities. Connecting community diversity to the joint ecological dynamics of the abundances of these groups is a central problem of community ecology. However, how microbial diversity depends on the scale of observation at which groups are defined has never been systematically examined. Here, we used a macroecological approach to quantitatively characterize the structure and diversity of microbial communities among disparate environments across taxonomic and phylogenetic scales. We found that measures of biodiversity at a given scale can be consistently predicted using a minimal model of ecology, the Stochastic Logistic Model of growth (SLM). This result suggests that the SLM is a more appropriate null-model for microbial biodiversity than alternatives such as the Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity. Extending these within-scale results, we examined the relationship between measures of biodiversity calculated at different scales (e.g. genus vs. family), an empirical pattern previously evaluated in the context of the Diversity Begets Diversity (DBD) hypothesis (Madi et al., 2020). We found that the relationship between richness estimates at different scales can be quantitatively predicted assuming independence among community members, demonstrating that the DBD can be sufficiently explained using the SLM as a null model of ecology. Contrastingly, only by including correlations between the abundances of community members (e.g. as the consequence of interactions) can we predict the relationship between estimates of diversity at different scales. The results of this study characterize novel microbial patterns across scales of organization and establish a sharp demarcation between recently proposed macroecological patterns that are not and are affected by ecological interactions.

Parameterized maximum entropy models predict variability of metabolic scaling across tree communities and populations

The maximum entropy theory of ecology (METE) applies the concept of "entropy" from information theory to predict macroecological patterns. The energetic predictions of the METE rely on predetermined metabolic scaling from external theories, and this reliance diminishes the testability of the theory. In this work, I build parameterized METE models by treating the metabolic scaling exponent as a free parameter, and I use the maximum-likelihood method to obtain empirically plausible estimates of the exponent. I test the models using the individual tree data from an oak-dominated deciduous forest in the northeastern United States and from a tropical forest in central Panama. My analysis shows that the metabolic scaling exponents predicted from the parameterized METE models deviate from that of the metabolic theory of ecology and exhibit large variation, at both community and population levels. Assemblage and population abundance may act as ecological constraints that regulate the individual-level metabolic scaling behavior. This study provides a novel example of the use of the parameterized METE models to reveal the biological processes of individual organisms. The implication and possible extensions of the parameterized METE models are discussed.