Resource limitation determines realized thermal performance of consumers in trophodynamic models

The importance of upwelling conditions as drivers of feeding behavior and thermal tolerance in a prominent intertidal fish

Upwelling, as a large oceanographic phenomenon, increases coastal productivity and influences all levels of biological complexity. Despite decades of research on it, much remains to be understood about the impact of upwelling on the feeding behavior and thermal tolerance of important groups such as fish. Hence, our aim was to investigate how upwelling conditions modify the feeding behavior and thermal tolerance of a prominent intertidal fish, Girella laevifrons. We collected purple mussels (Perumytilus purpuratus) from upwelling (U) and downwelling sites (DU) in central Chile, and used them as prey in feeding trials and measuring the concentration of organic matter and proteins in their tissues. We assessed fish consumption rates and growth in fish collected from the same U and DU sites, feeding on either U or DU mussels. Lastly, we assessed the thermal tolerance of U and DU fish fed with the aforementioned U vs DU mussels. We found that U mussels held higher concentrations of organic matter and proteins compared to their DU counterparts. U mussels were also selected and consumed in larger amounts than DU mussels, although the origin of the fish also influenced consumption rates. Thermal tolerance assays revealed that U fish exhibited higher maximum performance (Max.pf) and critical thermal maxima (Ctmax) and lower sensitivity to temperature changes (as measured by Q10), compared to DU fish. Altogether, these results point to a strong influence of upwelling on the quality of organisms' tissues, indirectly altering key aspects of fish feeding behavior and thermal tolerance. These findings also contribute to understanding the physiological adjustments organisms make in productive upwelling systems, and how they may change in the future with ongoing climate events.

Realised Thermal Niches in Marine Ectotherms Are Shaped by Ontogeny and Trophic Interactions

Understanding the response of marine organisms to temperature is crucial for predicting climate change impacts. Fundamental physiological thermal performance curves (TPCs), determined under controlled conditions, are commonly used to project future species spatial distributions or physiological performances. Yet, real-world performances may deviate due to extrinsic factors covarying with temperature (food, oxygen, etc.). Using a bioenergetic marine ecosystem model, we evaluate the differences between fundamental and realised TPCs for fish species with contrasted ecology and thermal preferences. Food limitation is the primary cause of differences, decreasing throughout ontogeny and across trophic levels due to spatio-temporal variability of low-trophic level prey availability with temperature. Deoxygenation has moderate impact, despite increasing during ontogeny. This highlights the lower sensitivity of early life stages to hypoxia, which is mechanistically explained by lower mass-specific ingestion at older stages. Understanding the emergence of realised thermal niches offers crucial insights to better determine population's persistence under climate warming.

Warm and thermally variable incubation conditions reduce embryonic performance and carry over to influence hatchling tradeoffs

Animals' thermal sensitivities have long been characterized by thermal performance curves (TPCs) or reaction norms, and TPCs may predict animals' responses to climate change. Typically, TPCs are parameterized by measuring performance at a range of constant temperatures. Yet, animals encounter a range of thermal environments, and temperature variability is an aspect of climate change that may affect animals more than gradual warming. Daily temperature variability is particularly important for eggs in most taxa because they are highly sensitive to temperature and cannot behaviorally avoid stressful temperatures. Thus, the legacy of thermal conditions experienced during incubation may carryover to subsequent life stages. Here, I factorially manipulated mean temperature (20, 25, or 30 °C) and daily temperature range (DTR; ±0, 5, or 10 °C) during incubation for eggs of the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) to integrate the role of DTR into the established paradigm of TPCs. Low DTR (±5 °C) was not generally costly, and it even improved hatchling starvation resistance (sensu hormesis). However, high DTR (±10 °C) reduced and delayed hatching at a warm mean temperature (30 °C). The effects of high DTR carried over to accelerate hatchling development at an expense to hatchling starvation resistance-therefore, thermal conditions during incubation can shape tradeoffs among important traits related to life history and stress tolerance later in life. In sum, animals may exhibit complex responses to their increasingly warmer, more thermally variable environments.

Metabolic plasticity drives mismatches in physiological traits between prey and predator

Metabolic rate, the rate of energy use, underpins key ecological traits of organisms, from development and locomotion to interaction rates between individuals. In a warming world, the temperature-dependence of metabolic rate is anticipated to shift predator-prey dynamics. Yet, there is little real-world evidence on the effects of warming on trophic interactions. We measured the respiration rates of aquatic larvae of three insect species from populations experiencing a natural temperature gradient in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Using a mechanistic model we predicted the effects of warming on these taxa's predator-prey interaction rates. We found that species-specific differences in metabolic plasticity lead to mismatches in the temperature-dependence of their relative velocities, resulting in altered predator-prey interaction rates. This study underscores the role of metabolic plasticity at the species level in modifying trophic interactions and proposes a mechanistic modelling approach that allows an efficient, high-throughput estimation of climate change threats across species pairs.

Temperature-dependent dispersal and ectotherm species' distributions in a warming world

Dispersal is a crucial component of species' responses to climate warming. Warming-induced changes in species' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species' distributions. Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement. I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature-dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming-induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits. Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within-patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature-dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation. Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments.

Interactions between temperature and nutrients determine the population dynamics of primary producers

Global change is rapidly and fundamentally altering many of the processes regulating the flux of energy throughout ecosystems, and although researchers now understand the effect of temperature on key rates (such as aquatic primary productivity), the theoretical foundation needed to generate forecasts of biomass dynamics and extinction risk remains underdeveloped. We develop new theory that describes the interconnected effects of nutrients and temperature on phytoplankton populations and show that the thermal response of equilibrium biomass (i.e. carrying capacity) always peaks at a lower temperature than for productivity (i.e. growth rate). This mismatch is driven by differences in the thermal responses of growth, death, and per-capita impact on the nutrient pool, making our results highly general and applicable to widely used population models beyond phytoplankton. We further show that non-equilibrium dynamics depend on the pace of environmental change relative to underlying vital rates and that populations respond to variable environments differently at high versus low temperatures due to thermal asymmetries.

Mean species responses predict effects of environmental change on coexistence

Environmental change research is plagued by the curse of dimensionality: the number of communities at risk and the number of environmental drivers are both large. This raises the pressing question if a general understanding of ecological effects is achievable. Here, we show evidence that this is indeed possible. Using theoretical and simulation-based evidence for bi- and tritrophic communities, we show that environmental change effects on coexistence are proportional to mean species responses and depend on how trophic levels on average interact prior to environmental change. We then benchmark our findings using relevant cases of environmental change, showing that means of temperature optima and of species sensitivities to pollution predict concomitant effects on coexistence. Finally, we demonstrate how to apply our theory to the analysis of field data, finding support for effects of land use change on coexistence in natural invertebrate communities.