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Eriksson MH, Ripart M, Piper RJ, Moeller F, Das KB, Eltze C, Cooray G, Booth J, Whitaker KJ, Chari A, Martin Sanfilippo P, Perez Caballero A, Menzies L, McTague A, Tisdall MM, Cross JH, Baldeweg T, Adler S, Wagstyl K. Predicting seizure outcome after epilepsy surgery: Do we need more complex models, larger samples, or better data? Epilepsia 2023; 64:2014-2026. [PMID: 37129087 PMCID: PMC10952307 DOI: 10.1111/epi.17637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Revised: 04/30/2023] [Accepted: 05/01/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The accurate prediction of seizure freedom after epilepsy surgery remains challenging. We investigated if (1) training more complex models, (2) recruiting larger sample sizes, or (3) using data-driven selection of clinical predictors would improve our ability to predict postoperative seizure outcome using clinical features. We also conducted the first substantial external validation of a machine learning model trained to predict postoperative seizure outcome. METHODS We performed a retrospective cohort study of 797 children who had undergone resective or disconnective epilepsy surgery at a tertiary center. We extracted patient information from medical records and trained three models-a logistic regression, a multilayer perceptron, and an XGBoost model-to predict 1-year postoperative seizure outcome on our data set. We evaluated the performance of a recently published XGBoost model on the same patients. We further investigated the impact of sample size on model performance, using learning curve analysis to estimate performance at samples up to N = 2000. Finally, we examined the impact of predictor selection on model performance. RESULTS Our logistic regression achieved an accuracy of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 68%-75%, area under the curve [AUC] = .72), whereas our multilayer perceptron and XGBoost both achieved accuracies of 71% (95% CIMLP = 67%-74%, AUCMLP = .70; 95% CIXGBoost own = 68%-75%, AUCXGBoost own = .70). There was no significant difference in performance between our three models (all p > .4) and they all performed better than the external XGBoost, which achieved an accuracy of 63% (95% CI = 59%-67%, AUC = .62; pLR = .005, pMLP = .01, pXGBoost own = .01) on our data. All models showed improved performance with increasing sample size, but limited improvements beyond our current sample. The best model performance was achieved with data-driven feature selection. SIGNIFICANCE We show that neither the deployment of complex machine learning models nor the assembly of thousands of patients alone is likely to generate significant improvements in our ability to predict postoperative seizure freedom. We instead propose that improved feature selection alongside collaboration, data standardization, and model sharing is required to advance the field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria H. Eriksson
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeuropsychologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
- Department of NeurologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
- The Alan Turing InstituteLondonUK
| | - Mathilde Ripart
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
| | - Rory J. Piper
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeurosurgeryGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | | | - Krishna B. Das
- Department of NeurologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
- Department of NeurophysiologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - Christin Eltze
- Department of NeurophysiologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - Gerald Cooray
- Department of NeurophysiologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
- Clinical NeuroscienceKarolinska InstituteSolnaSweden
| | - John Booth
- Digital Research EnvironmentGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | | | - Aswin Chari
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeurosurgeryGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - Patricia Martin Sanfilippo
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeuropsychologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | | | - Lara Menzies
- Department of Clinical GeneticsGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - Amy McTague
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeurologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - Martin M. Tisdall
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeurosurgeryGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - J. Helen Cross
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeurologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
- Department of NeurosurgeryGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
- Young EpilepsyLingfieldUK
| | - Torsten Baldeweg
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
- Department of NeuropsychologyGreat Ormond Street HospitalLondonUK
| | - Sophie Adler
- Developmental Neurosciences Research & Teaching DepartmentUCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child HealthLondonUK
| | - Konrad Wagstyl
- Imaging NeuroscienceUCL Queen Square Institute of NeurologyLondonUK
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Baciu M, O'Sullivan L, Torlay L, Banjac S. New insights for predicting surgery outcome in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. A systematic review. Rev Neurol (Paris) 2023:S0035-3787(23)00884-6. [PMID: 37003897 DOI: 10.1016/j.neurol.2023.02.067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 02/22/2023] [Indexed: 04/03/2023]
Abstract
Resective surgery is the treatment of choice for one-third of adult patients with focal, drug-resistant epilepsy. This procedure is associated with substantial clinical and cognitive risks. In clinical practice, there is no validated model for epilepsy surgery outcome prediction (ESOP). Meta-analyses on ESOP studies assessing prognostic factors report discrepancies in terms of study design. Our review aims to systematically investigate methodological and analytical aspects of studies predicting clinical and cognitive outcomes after temporal lobe epilepsy surgery. A systematic review of ESOP studies published between 2000 and 2022 from three databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, and PsycINFO) was completed by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. It yielded 4867 articles. Among them, 21 corresponded to our inclusion criteria and were therefore retained in the final review. The risk of bias was assessed using A Tool to Assess Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies (PROBAST). Data extracted from the 21 studies were analyzed using narrative synthesis and descriptive statistics. Our findings show an increase in the use of multimodal datasets and machine learning analyses in recent ESOP studies, although regression remained the most frequently used approach. We also identified a more frequent use of network notions in recent ESOP studies. Nevertheless, several methodological issues were noted, such as small sample sizes, lack of information on the follow-up period, variability in seizure outcome, and the definition of neuropsychological postoperative change. Of 21 studies, only one provided a clinical tool to anticipate the cognitive outcome after epilepsy surgery. We conclude that methodological issues should be overcome before we move towards more complete models to better predict clinical and cognitive outcomes after epilepsy surgery. Recommendations for future studies to harness the possibilities of multimodal datasets and data fusion, are provided. A stronger bridge between fundamental and clinical research may result in developing accessible clinical tools.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Baciu
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS LPNC UMR 5105, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - L O'Sullivan
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS LPNC UMR 5105, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - L Torlay
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS LPNC UMR 5105, 38000 Grenoble, France
| | - S Banjac
- Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS LPNC UMR 5105, 38000 Grenoble, France.
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Batista Tsukahara VH, de Oliveira Júnior JN, de Oliveira Barth VB, de Oliveira JC, Rosa Cota V, Maciel CD. Data-Driven Network Dynamical Model of Rat Brains During Acute Ictogenesis. Front Neural Circuits 2022; 16:747910. [PMID: 36034337 PMCID: PMC9399918 DOI: 10.3389/fncir.2022.747910] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/27/2021] [Accepted: 06/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders worldwide. Recent findings suggest that the brain is a complex system composed of a network of neurons, and seizure is considered an emergent property resulting from its interactions. Based on this perspective, network physiology has emerged as a promising approach to explore how brain areas coordinate, synchronize and integrate their dynamics, both under perfect health and critical illness conditions. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to present an application of (Dynamic) Bayesian Networks (DBN) to model Local Field Potentials (LFP) data on rats induced to epileptic seizures based on the number of arcs found using threshold analytics. Results showed that DBN analysis captured the dynamic nature of brain connectivity across ictogenesis and a significant correlation with neurobiology derived from pioneering studies employing techniques of pharmacological manipulation, lesion, and modern optogenetics. The arcs evaluated under the proposed approach achieved consistent results based on previous literature, in addition to demonstrating robustness regarding functional connectivity analysis. Moreover, it provided fascinating and novel insights, such as discontinuity between forelimb clonus and generalized tonic-clonic seizure (GTCS) dynamics. Thus, DBN coupled with threshold analytics may be an excellent tool for investigating brain circuitry and their dynamical interplay, both in homeostasis and dysfunction conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Hugo Batista Tsukahara
- Signal Processing Laboratory, School of Engineering of São Carlos, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil
| | - Jordão Natal de Oliveira Júnior
- Signal Processing Laboratory, School of Engineering of São Carlos, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil
| | - Vitor Bruno de Oliveira Barth
- Signal Processing Laboratory, School of Engineering of São Carlos, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil
| | - Jasiara Carla de Oliveira
- Laboratory of Neuroengineering and Neuroscience, Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of São João Del-Rei, São João Del Rei, Brazil
| | - Vinicius Rosa Cota
- Laboratory of Neuroengineering and Neuroscience, Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of São João Del-Rei, São João Del Rei, Brazil
| | - Carlos Dias Maciel
- Signal Processing Laboratory, School of Engineering of São Carlos, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil
- *Correspondence: Carlos Dias Maciel
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Yossofzai O, Fallah A, Maniquis C, Wang S, Ragheb J, Weil AG, Brunette-Clement T, Andrade A, Ibrahim GM, Mitsakakis N, Widjaja E. Development and validation of machine learning models for prediction of seizure outcome after pediatric epilepsy surgery. Epilepsia 2022; 63:1956-1969. [PMID: 35661152 DOI: 10.1111/epi.17320] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2022] [Revised: 06/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE There is substantial variability in reported seizure outcome following pediatric epilepsy surgery, and lack of individualized predictive tools that could evaluate the probability of seizure freedom postsurgery. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a supervised machine learning (ML) model for predicting seizure freedom after pediatric epilepsy surgery. METHODS This is a multicenter retrospective study of children who underwent epilepsy surgery at five pediatric epilepsy centers in North America. Clinical information, diagnostic investigations, and surgical characteristics were collected, and used as features to predict seizure-free outcome 1 year after surgery. The dataset was split randomly into 80% training and 20% testing data. Thirty-five combinations of five feature sets with seven ML classifiers were assessed on the training cohort using 10-fold cross-validation for model development. The performance of the optimal combination of ML classifier and feature set was evaluated in the testing cohort, and compared with logistic regression, a classical statistical approach. RESULTS Of the 801 patients included, 61.3% were seizure-free 1 year postsurgery. During model development, the best combination was XGBoost ML algorithm with five features from the univariate feature set, including number of antiseizure medications, magnetic resonance imaging lesion, age at seizure onset, video-electroencephalography concordance, and surgery type, with a mean area under the curve (AUC) of .73 (95% confidence interval [CI] = .69-.77). The combination of XGBoost and univariate feature set was then evaluated on the testing cohort and achieved an AUC of .74 (95% CI = .66-.82; sensitivity = .87, 95% CI = .81-.94; specificity = .58, 95% CI = .47-.71). The XGBoost model outperformed the logistic regression model (AUC = .72, 95% CI = .63-.80; sensitivity = .72, 95% CI = .63-.82; specificity = .66, 95% CI = .53-.77) in the testing cohort (p = .005). SIGNIFICANCE This study identified important features and validated an ML algorithm, XGBoost, for predicting the probability of seizure freedom after pediatric epilepsy surgery. Improved prognostication of epilepsy surgery is critical for presurgical counseling and will inform treatment decisions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omar Yossofzai
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Institute of Medical Science, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Aria Fallah
- Department of Neurosurgery, University of California, Los Angeles Mattel Children's Hospital, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Cassia Maniquis
- Department of Neurosurgery, University of California, Los Angeles Mattel Children's Hospital, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Shelly Wang
- Division of Neurosurgery, Brain Institute, Nicklaus Children's Hospital, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - John Ragheb
- Division of Neurosurgery, Brain Institute, Nicklaus Children's Hospital, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Alexander G Weil
- Department of Neurosurgery, Sainte-Justine University Hospital Center, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | | | - Andrea Andrade
- Department of Paediatrics, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - George M Ibrahim
- Department of Neurosurgery, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Nicholas Mitsakakis
- Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.,Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Elysa Widjaja
- Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Division of Neurology, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Benjumeda M, Tan YL, González Otárula KA, Chandramohan D, Chang EF, Hall JA, Bielza C, Larrañaga P, Kobayashi E, Knowlton RC. Patient specific prediction of temporal lobe epilepsy surgical outcomes. Epilepsia 2021; 62:2113-2122. [PMID: 34275140 DOI: 10.1111/epi.17002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2020] [Revised: 06/26/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Drug-resistant temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) is the most common type of epilepsy for which patients undergo surgery. Despite the best clinical judgment and currently available prediction algorithms, surgical outcomes remain variable. We aimed to build and to evaluate the performance of multidimensional Bayesian network classifiers (MBCs), a type of probabilistic graphical model, at predicting probability of seizure freedom after TLE surgery. METHODS Clinical, neurophysiological, and imaging variables were collected from 231 TLE patients who underwent surgery at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) or the Montreal Neurological Institute (MNI) over a 15-year period. Postsurgical Engel outcomes at year 1 (Y1), Y2, and Y5 were analyzed as primary end points. We trained an MBC model on combined data sets from both institutions. Bootstrap bias corrected cross-validation (BBC-CV) was used to evaluate the performance of the models. RESULTS The MBC was compared with logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards according to the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). The MBC achieved an AUC of 0.67 at Y1, 0.72 at Y2, and 0.67 at Y5, which indicates modest performance yet superior to what has been reported in the state-of-the-art studies to date. SIGNIFICANCE The MBC can more precisely encode probabilistic relationships between predictors and class variables (Engel outcomes), achieving promising experimental results compared to other well-known statistical methods. Multisite application of the MBC could further optimize its classification accuracy with prospective data sets. Online access to the MBC is provided, paving the way for its use as an adjunct clinical tool in aiding pre-operative TLE surgical counseling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Benjumeda
- Computational Intelligence Group, Department of Artificial Intelligence, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Yee-Leng Tan
- Department of Neurology, University of California San Francisco Medical Center, San Francisco, CA, USA.,Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.,Department of Neurology, National Neuroscience Institute, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Karina A González Otárula
- Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Dharshan Chandramohan
- Department of Neurology, University of California San Francisco Medical Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Edward F Chang
- Department of Neurosurgery, University of California San Francisco Medical Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Jeffery A Hall
- Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Concha Bielza
- Computational Intelligence Group, Department of Artificial Intelligence, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Pedro Larrañaga
- Computational Intelligence Group, Department of Artificial Intelligence, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Eliane Kobayashi
- Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Montreal Neurological Institute and Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Robert C Knowlton
- Department of Neurology, University of California San Francisco Medical Center, San Francisco, CA, USA
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