Seizure forecasting using minimally invasive, ultra-long-term subcutaneous EEG: Generalizable cross-patient models

Concept-drifts adaptation for machine learning EEG epilepsy seizure prediction

Seizure prediction remains a challenge, with approximately 30% of patients unresponsive to conventional treatments. Addressing this issue is crucial for improving patients' quality of life, as timely intervention can mitigate the impact of seizures. In this research field, it is critical to identify the preictal interval, the transition from regular brain activity to a seizure. While previous studies have explored various Electroencephalogram (EEG) based methodologies for prediction, few have been clinically applicable. Recent studies have underlined the dynamic nature of EEG data, characterised by data changes with time, known as concept drifts, highlighting the need for automated methods to detect and adapt to these changes. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of automatic concept drift adaptation methods in seizure prediction. Three patient-specific seizure prediction approaches with a 10-minute prediction horizon are compared: a seizure prediction algorithm incorporating a window adjustment method by optimising performance with Support Vector Machines (Backwards-Landmark Window), a seizure prediction algorithm incorporating a data-batch (seizures) selection method using a logistic regression (Seizure-batch Regression), and a seizure prediction algorithm with a dynamic integration of classifiers (Dynamic Weighted Ensemble). These methods incorporate a retraining process after each seizure and use a combination of univariate linear features and SVM classifiers. The Firing Power was used as a post-processing technique to generate alarms before seizures. These methodologies were compared with a control approach based on the typical machine learning pipeline, considering a group of 37 patients with Temporal Lobe Epilepsy from the EPILEPSIAE database. The best-performing approach (Backwards-Landmark Window) achieved results of 0.75 ± 0.33 for sensitivity and 1.03 ± 1.00 for false positive rate per hour. This new strategy performed above chance for 89% of patients with the surrogate predictor, whereas the control approach only validated 46%.

Comparison between epileptic seizure prediction and forecasting based on machine learning

Epilepsy affects around 1% of the population worldwide. Anti-epileptic drugs are an excellent option for controlling seizure occurrence but do not work for around one-third of patients. Warning devices employing seizure prediction or forecasting algorithms could bring patients new-found comfort and quality of life. These algorithms would attempt to detect a seizure's preictal period, a transitional moment between regular brain activity and the seizure, and relay this information to the user. Over the years, many seizure prediction studies using Electroencephalogram-based methodologies have been developed, triggering an alarm when detecting the preictal period. Recent studies have suggested a shift in view from prediction to forecasting. Seizure forecasting takes a probabilistic approach to the problem in question instead of the crisp approach of seizure prediction. In this field of study, the triggered alarm to symbolize the detection of a preictal period is substituted by a constant risk assessment analysis. The present work aims to explore methodologies capable of seizure forecasting and establish a comparison with seizure prediction results. Using 40 patients from the EPILEPSIAE database, we developed several patient-specific prediction and forecasting algorithms with different classifiers (a Logistic Regression, a 15 Support Vector Machines ensemble, and a 15 Shallow Neural Networks ensemble). Results show an increase of the seizure sensitivity in forecasting relative to prediction of up to 146% and in the number of patients that displayed an improvement over chance of up to 300%. These results suggest that a seizure forecasting methodology may be more suitable for seizure warning devices than a seizure prediction one.

Seizure forecasting: Where do we stand?

A lot of mileage has been made recently on the long and winding road toward seizure forecasting. Here we briefly review some selected milestones passed along the way, which were discussed at the International Conference for Technology and Analysis of Seizures-ICTALS 2022-convened at the University of Bern, Switzerland. Major impetus was gained recently from wearable and implantable devices that record not only electroencephalography, but also data on motor behavior, acoustic signals, and various signals of the autonomic nervous system. This multimodal monitoring can be performed for ultralong timescales covering months or years. Accordingly, features and metrics extracted from these data now assess seizure dynamics with a greater degree of completeness. Most prominently, this has allowed the confirmation of the long-suspected cyclical nature of interictal epileptiform activity, seizure risk, and seizures. The timescales cover daily, multi-day, and yearly cycles. Progress has also been fueled by approaches originating from the interdisciplinary field of network science. Considering epilepsy as a large-scale network disorder yielded novel perspectives on the pre-ictal dynamics of the evolving epileptic brain. In addition to discrete predictions that a seizure will take place in a specified prediction horizon, the community broadened the scope to probabilistic forecasts of a seizure risk evolving continuously in time. This shift of gears triggered the incorporation of additional metrics to quantify the performance of forecasting algorithms, which should be compared to the chance performance of constrained stochastic null models. An imminent task of utmost importance is to find optimal ways to communicate the output of seizure-forecasting algorithms to patients, caretakers, and clinicians, so that they can have socioeconomic impact and improve patients' well-being.

Getting Under the Skin of Seizure Monitoring: A Subcutaneous EEG Tool to Keep a Tally Over the Long Haul

Detecting Temporal Lobe Seizures in Ultra Long-Term Subcutaneous EEG Using Algorithm-Based Data Reduction Remvig LS, Duun-Henriksen J, Fürbass F, Hartmann M, Viana PF, Kappel Overby AM, Weisdorf S, Richardson MP, Beniczky S, Kjaer TW. Clin Neurophysiol . 2022;142:86-93. doi:10.1016/j.clinph.2022.07.504 . PMID: 35987094 Objective: Ultra long-term monitoring with subcutaneous EEG (sqEEG) offers objective outpatient recording of electrographic seizures as an alternative to self-reported epileptic seizure diaries. This methodology requires an algorithm-based automatic seizure detection to indicate periods of potential seizure activity to reduce the time spent on visual review. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of a sqEEG-based automatic seizure detection algorithm. Methods: A multicenter cohort of subjects using sqEEG were analyzed, including nine people with epilepsy (PWE) and 12 healthy subjects, recording a total of 965 days. The automatic seizure detections of a deep-neural-network algorithm were compared to annotations from three human experts. Results: Data reduction ratios were 99.6% in PWE and 99.9% in the control group. The cross-PWE sensitivity was 86% (median 80%, range 69-100% when PWE were evaluated individually), and the corresponding median false detection rate was 2.4 detections per 24 hours (range: 2.0-13.0). Conclusions: Our findings demonstrated that step one in a sqEEG-based semi-automatic seizure detection/review process can be performed with high sensitivity and clinically applicable specificity. Significance: Ultra long-term sqEEG bears the potential of improving objective seizure quantification.

Perceived seizure risk in epilepsy: Chronic electronic surveys with and without concurrent electroencephalography

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to forecast their own seizures. This study aimed to assess the relationships between premonitory symptoms, perceived seizure risk, and future and recent self-reported and electroencephalographically (EEG)-confirmed seizures in ambulatory patients with epilepsy in their natural home environments.

METHODS

Long-term e-surveys were collected from patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication adherence, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk, and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with the seizure forecasting classifiers and device forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Fifty-four subjects returned 10 269 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed that increased stress (OR = 2.01, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12-3.61, AUC = .61, p = .02) was associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. Multivariate analysis showed that previous self-reported seizures (OR = 5.37, 95% CI = 3.53-8.16, AUC = .76, p < .001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.87-5.95, AUC = .69, p < .001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No correlation with medication adherence was found. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our results suggest that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings and that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting.

Forecasting seizure likelihood from cycles of self-reported events and heart rate: a prospective pilot study

BACKGROUND

Seizure risk forecasting could reduce injuries and even deaths in people with epilepsy. There is great interest in using non-invasive wearable devices to generate forecasts of seizure risk. Forecasts based on cycles of epileptic activity, seizure times or heart rate have provided promising forecasting results. This study validates a forecasting method using multimodal cycles recorded from wearable devices.

METHOD

Seizure and heart rate cycles were extracted from 13 participants. The mean period of heart rate data from a smartwatch was 562 days, with a mean of 125 self-reported seizures from a smartphone app. The relationship between seizure onset time and phases of seizure and heart rate cycles was investigated. An additive regression model was used to project heart rate cycles. The results of forecasts using seizure cycles, heart rate cycles, and a combination of both were compared. Forecasting performance was evaluated in 6 of 13 participants in a prospective setting, using long-term data collected after algorithms were developed.

FINDINGS

The results showed that the best forecasts achieved a mean area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 for 9/13 participants showing performance above chance during retrospective validation. Subject-specific forecasts evaluated with prospective data showed a mean AUC of 0.77 with 4/6 participants showing performance above chance.

INTERPRETATION

The results of this study demonstrate that cycles detected from multimodal data can be combined within a single, scalable seizure risk forecasting algorithm to provide robust performance. The presented forecasting method enabled seizure risk to be estimated for an arbitrary future period and could be generalised across a range of data types. In contrast to earlier work, the current study evaluated forecasts prospectively, in subjects blinded to their seizure risk outputs, representing a critical step towards clinical applications.

FUNDING

This study was funded by an Australian Government National Health & Medical Research Council and BioMedTech Horizons grant. The study also received support from the Epilepsy Foundation of America's 'My Seizure Gauge' grant.

Removing artefacts and periodically retraining improve performance of neural network-based seizure prediction models

The development of seizure prediction models is often based on long-term scalp electroencephalograms (EEGs) since they capture brain electrical activity, are non-invasive, and come at a relatively low-cost. However, they suffer from major shortcomings. First, long-term EEG is usually highly contaminated with artefacts. Second, changes in the EEG signal over long intervals, known as concept drift, are often neglected. We evaluate the influence of these problems on deep neural networks using EEG time series and on shallow neural networks using widely-used EEG features. Our patient-specific prediction models were tested in 1577 hours of continuous EEG, containing 91 seizures from 41 patients with temporal lobe epilepsy who were undergoing pre-surgical monitoring. Our results showed that cleaning EEG data, using a previously developed artefact removal method based on deep convolutional neural networks, improved prediction performance. We also found that retraining the models over time reduced false predictions. Furthermore, the results show that although deep neural networks processing EEG time series are less susceptible to false alarms, they may need more data to surpass feature-based methods. These findings highlight the importance of robust data denoising and periodic adaptation of seizure prediction models.

Perceived seizure risk in epilepsy â€" Chronic electronic surveys with and without concurrent EEG

Objective

Previous studies suggested that patients with epilepsy might be able to fore-cast their own seizures. We sought to assess the relationships of premonitory symptoms and perceived seizure risk with future and recent self-reported and EEG-confirmed seizures in the subjects living with epilepsy in their natural home environments.

Methods

We collected long-term e-surveys from ambulatory patients with and without concurrent EEG recordings. Information obtained from the e-surveys included medication compliance, sleep quality, mood, stress, perceived seizure risk and seizure occurrences preceding the survey. EEG seizures were identified. Univariate and multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the assessment of the relationships. Results were compared with device seizure forecasting literature using a mathematical formula converting OR to equivalent area under the curve (AUC).

Results

Sixty-nine subjects returned 12,590 e-survey entries, with four subjects acquiring concurrent EEG recordings. Univariate analysis revealed increased stress (OR = 2.52, 95% CI = [1.52, 4.14], p < 0.001) and decreased mood (0.32, [0.13, 0.82], 0.02) were associated with increased relative odds of future self-reported seizures. On multivariate analysis, previous self-reported seizures (4.24, [2.69, 6.68], < 0.001) were most strongly associated with future self-reported seizures, and high perceived seizure risk (3.30, [1.97, 5.52], < 0.001) remained significant when prior self-reported seizures were added to the model. No significant association was found between e-survey responses and subsequent EEG seizures.

Significance

It appears that patients may tend to self-forecast seizures that occur in sequential groupings. Our results suggest that low mood and increased stress may be the result of previous seizures rather than independent premonitory symptoms. Patients in the small cohort with concurrent EEG showed no ability to self-predict EEG seizures. The conversion from OR to AUC values facilitates direct comparison of performance between survey and device studies involving survey premonition and forecasting.

Key points

Long-term e-surveys data and concurrent EEG signals were collected across three study sites to assess the ability of the patients to self-forecast their seizures.Patients may tend to self-forecast self-reported seizures that occur in sequential groupings.Factors, such as mood and stress, may not be independent premonitory symptoms but may be the consequence of recent seizures.No ability to self-forecast EEG confirmed seizures was observed in a small cohort with concurrent EEG validation.A mathematic relation between OR and AUC provides a means to compare forecasting performance between survey and device studies.

Prediction of epilepsy surgery outcome using foramen ovale EEG - A machine learning approach

INTRODUCTION

Patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy may benefit from ablative or resective surgery. In presurgical work-up, intracranial EEG markers have been shown to be useful in identification of the seizure onset zone and prediction of post-surgical seizure freedom. However, in most cases, implantation of depth or subdural electrodes is performed, exposing patients to increased risks of complications.

METHODS

We analysed EEG data recorded from a minimally invasive approach utilizing foramen ovale (FO) and epidural peg electrodes using a supervised machine learning approach to predict post-surgical seizure freedom. Power-spectral EEG features were incorporated in a logistic regression model predicting one-year post-surgical seizure freedom. The prediction model was validated using repeated 5-fold cross-validation and compared to outcome prediction based on clinical and scalp EEG variables.

RESULTS

Forty-seven patients (26 patients with post-surgical 1-year seizure freedom) were included in the study, with 31 having FO and 27 patients having peg onset seizures. The area under the receiver-operating curve for post-surgical seizure freedom (Engel 1A) prediction in patients with FO onset seizures was 0.74 ± 0.23 using electrophysiology features, compared to 0.66 ± 0.22 for predictions based on clinical and scalp EEG variables (p < 0.001). The most important features for prediction were spectral power in the gamma and high gamma ranges. EEG data from peg electrodes was not informative in predicting post-surgical outcomes.

CONCLUSION

In this hypothesis-generating study, a data-driven approach based on EEG features derived from FO electrodes recordings outperformed the predictive ability based solely on clinical and scalp EEG variables. Pending validation in future studies, this method may provide valuable post-surgical prognostic information while minimizing risks of more invasive diagnostic approaches.

Novel subscalp and intracranial devices to wirelessly record and analyze continuous EEG in unsedated, behaving dogs in their natural environments: A new paradigm in canine epilepsy research

Epilepsy is characterized by unprovoked, recurrent seizures and is a common neurologic disorder in dogs and humans. Roughly 1/3 of canines and humans with epilepsy prove to be drug-resistant and continue to have sporadic seizures despite taking daily anti-seizure medications. The optimization of pharmacologic therapy is often limited by inaccurate seizure diaries and medication side effects. Electroencephalography (EEG) has long been a cornerstone of diagnosis and classification in human epilepsy, but because of several technical challenges has played a smaller clinical role in canine epilepsy. The interictal (between seizures) and ictal (seizure) EEG recorded from the epileptic mammalian brain shows characteristic electrophysiologic biomarkers that are very useful for clinical management. A fundamental engineering gap for both humans and canines with epilepsy has been the challenge of obtaining continuous long-term EEG in the patients' natural environment. We are now on the cusp of a revolution where continuous long-term EEG from behaving canines and humans will be available to guide clinicians in the diagnosis and optimal treatment of their patients. Here we review some of the devices that have recently emerged for obtaining long-term EEG in ambulatory subjects living in their natural environments.