Reduced relative fitness in hatchery‐origin Pink Salmon in two streams in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Invasion status of hatchery-origin pink salmon in an unstocked river at the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site in northern Japan

Hatchery fish and their offspring (including hatchery-wild hybrids) have lower reproductive success than wild fish. Thus, the straying of hatchery fish may negatively impact wild populations, depending on the number of wild salmon returning and hatchery strays. We investigated the straying status of hatchery-origin pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha), which have a higher straying rate than other salmonids, in an unstocked river at the Shiretoko World Natural Heritage Site, Japan. The hatchery strays accounted for 40.0% and 19.0% of the total samples in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These results indicate that hatchery pink salmon have invaded unstocked rivers and potentially genetically affect wild populations.

Hatchery supplementation provides a demographic boost but alters age composition of sockeye salmon in Auke Lake, Southeast Alaska

Evaluating salmon hatchery supplementation programs requires assessing not only program objectives but identifying potential risks to wild populations as well. Such evaluations can be hampered by difficulty in distinguishing between hatchery- and wild-born returning adults. Here, we conducted 3 years (2011-2013) of experimental hatchery supplementation of sockeye salmon in Auke Lake, Juneau, Alaska where a permanent weir allows sampling and genotyping of every returning adult (2008-2019). We identified both hatchery- and wild-born returning adults with parentage assignment, quantified the productivity (adult offspring/spawner) of hatchery spawners relative to that of wild spawners, and compared run timing, age, and size at age between hatchery- and wild-born adults. Hatchery-spawning females produced from approximately six to 50 times more returning adults than did naturally spawning females. Supplementation had no discernable effect on run timing and limited consequences for size at age, but we observed a distinct shift to younger age at maturity in the hatchery-born individuals in all three brood years. The shift appeared to be driven by hatchery-born fish being more likely to emigrate after one, rather than two, years in the lake but the cause is unknown. In cases when spawning or incubation habitat is limiting sockeye salmon production, hatchery supplementation can be effective for enhancing the number of returning adult fish but not without the risk of phenotypic change in the recipient population, which can be an undesired outcome of hatchery supplementation. This study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that phenotypic change within a single generation of captive spawning might be widespread in salmon hatchery programs.

Reliability of trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR) for enumerating Pacific salmon

As Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) decline across much of their range, it is imperative to further develop minimally invasive tools to quantify population abundance. One such advancement, trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR), uses parentage analysis to estimate the size of wild populations. Our study examined the precision and accuracy of tGMR through a comparison to a traditional mark-recapture estimate for Chilkat River Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) in Southeast Alaska. We examined how adult sampling location and timing impact tGMR by comparing estimates derived using samples collected in the lower river mainstem to those using samples obtained in upriver spawning tributaries. Results indicated that tGMR estimates using a representative sample of mainstem adults were most concordant with, and 3% more precise than, the traditional mark-recapture estimate for this stock. Importantly, the timing and location of adult sampling were found to impact abundance estimates, depending on what proportion of the population dies or moves to unsampled areas between downriver and upriver sampling events. Additionally, we identified potential sources of bias in tGMR arising from violations of key assumptions using a novel individual-based modeling framework, parameterized with empirical values from the Chilkat River. Simulations demonstrated that increased reproductive success and sampling selectivity of older, larger individuals, introduced negative bias into tGMR estimates. Our individual-based model offers a customizable and accessible method to identify and quantify these biases in tGMR applications (https://github.com/swrosenbaum/tGMR_simulations). We underscore the critical role of system-specific sampling design considerations in ensuring the precision and accuracy of tGMR projects. This study validates tGMR as a potentially useful tool for improved population enumeration in semelparous species.

Tidal gradients, fine-scale homing and a potential cryptic ecotype of wild spawning pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)

The homing behaviour of salmon is a remarkable natural phenomenon, critical for shaping the ecology and evolution of populations yet the spatial scale at which it occurs is poorly understood. This study investigated the spatial scale and mechanisms driving homing as depicted by spawning site-choice behaviour in pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Molecular pedigree analyses of over 30,000 adult spawners in four streams revealed that pink salmon exhibit fine-scale site fidelity within a stream, returning to within <100 m of their parents. Homing behaviours were driven in part by a salinity gradient between intertidal and freshwater environments, with individuals incubated in freshwater environments more than twice as likely to spawn upstream of tidal influence than those incubated in the intertidal. Our findings challenge the traditional view that pink salmon populations are genetically and phenotypically homogenous due to their short freshwater residency as juveniles and high rates of dispersal as returning adults (i.e. straying). This study has important implications for rates of inbreeding, local adaptation and gene flow within populations, and is particularly relevant to the management of salmon hatcheries, given the high incidence of hatchery-origin pink salmon, reared in freshwater hatchery environments, that stray into wild populations of Prince William Sound.

Hypoxia vulnerability in the salmon watersheds of Southeast Alaska

The frequency of dissolved oxygen depletion events (hypoxia) in coastal aquatic ecosystems has risen dramatically since the late 20th century, yet the causes and consequences of hypoxia for some culturally and economically important species remain poorly understood. In rivers, oxygen depletion can be caused by high densities of spawning Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) consuming oxygen faster than can be replaced by reaeration. This process may be exacerbated when salmon densities are artificially inflated, such as when hatchery-origin salmon stray into rivers instead of returning to hatcheries. In Southeast Alaska, hatchery salmon production has increased rapidly since the 1970s, with over 553 million chum salmon (O. keta) and 64 million pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) released in 2021 alone. Straying is pervasive in streams with outlets <25 km from nearshore marine hatchery release sites. Using a previously ground-truthed mechanistic model of dissolved oxygen dynamics, we examined how water temperature and low-flow channel hydraulics contribute to hypoxia vulnerability. We then applied the model to predict hypoxia vulnerability for watersheds within 25 km of hatchery salmon release points, where straying salmon spawner densities are expected to be higher and promote dissolved oxygen depletion. Our model predicted that low-gradient stream reaches, regardless of water temperature, are the most prone to hypoxia due to low reaeration rates. Our spatial analysis determined that nearly 17,000 km of anadromous-accessible stream reaches are vulnerable to high densities of hatchery-origin salmon based on 2021 release sites. To our knowledge, this study is the first to map the spatial variation of hypoxia vulnerability in anadromous watersheds, identify habitat conditions most likely to promote hypoxia, and provide a repeatable analytical approach to identify hypoxia-prone stream reaches that can be updated as empirical data sets improve.

Sex-specific heritabilities for length at maturity among Pacific salmonids and their consequences for evolution in response to artificial selection

Artificial selection, whether intentional or coincidental, is a common result of conservation policies and natural resource management. To reduce unintended consequences of artificial selection, conservation practitioners must understand both artificial selection gradients on traits of interest and how those traits are correlated with others that may affect population growth and resilience. We investigate how artificial selection on male body size in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) may influence the evolution of female body size and female fitness. While salmon hatchery managers often assume that selection for large males will also produce large females, this may not be the case-in fact, because the fastest-growing males mature earliest and at the smallest size, and because female age at maturity varies little, small males may produce larger females if the genetic architecture of growth rate is the same in both sexes. We explored this possibility by estimating sex-specific heritability values of and natural and artificial selection gradients on length at maturity in four populations representing three species of Pacific salmon. We then used the multivariate breeder's equation to project how artificial selection against small males may affect the evolution of female length and fecundity. Our results indicate that the heritability of length at maturity is greater within than between the sexes and that sire-daughter heritability values are especially small. Salmon hatchery policies should consider these sex-specific quantitative genetic parameters to avoid potential unintended consequences of artificial selection.

Hybridization decreases native cutthroat trout reproductive fitness

Examining natural selection in wild populations is challenging, but crucial to understanding many ecological and evolutionary processes. Additionally, in hybridizing populations, natural selection may be an important determinant of the eventual outcome of hybridization. We characterized several components of relative fitness in hybridizing populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and rainbow trout in an effort to better understand the prolonged persistence of both parental species despite predictions of extirpation. Thousands of genomic loci enabled precise quantification of hybrid status in adult and subsequent juvenile generations; a subset of those data also identified parent-offspring relationships. We used linear models and simulations to assess the effects of ancestry on reproductive output and mate choice decisions. We found a relatively low number of late-stage (F3+) hybrids and an excess of F2 juveniles relative to the adult generation in one location, which suggests the presence of hybrid breakdown decreasing the fitness of F2+ hybrids later in life. Assessments of reproductive output showed that Yellowstone cutthroat trout are more likely to successfully reproduce and produce slightly more offspring than their rainbow trout and hybrid counterparts. Mate choice appeared to be largely random, though we did find statistical support for slight female preference for males of similar ancestry. Together, these results show that native Yellowstone cutthroat trout are able to outperform rainbow trout in terms of reproduction and suggests that management action to exclude rainbow trout from spawning locations may bolster the now-rare Yellowstone cutthroat trout.

Non-stationary and interactive effects of climate and competition on pink salmon productivity

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are exposed to increased environmental change and multiple human stressors. To anticipate future impacts of global change and to improve sustainable resource management, it is critical to understand how wild salmon populations respond to stressors associated with human-caused changes such as climate warming and ocean acidification, as well as competition in the ocean, which is intensified by the large-scale production and release of hatchery reared salmon. Pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) are a keystone species in the North Pacific Ocean and support highly valuable commercial fisheries. We investigated the joint effects of changes in ocean conditions and salmon abundances on the productivity of wild pink salmon. Our analysis focused on Prince William Sound in Alaska, because the region accounts for ~50% of the global production of hatchery pink salmon with local hatcheries releasing 600-700 million pink salmon fry annually. Using 60 years of data on wild pink salmon abundances, hatchery releases, and ecological conditions in the ocean, we find evidence that hatchery pink salmon releases negatively affect wild pink salmon productivity, likely through competition between wild and hatchery juveniles in nearshore marine habitats. We find no evidence for effects of ocean acidification on pink salmon productivity. However, a change in the leading mode of North Pacific climate in 1988-1989 weakened the temperature-productivity relationship and altered the strength of intraspecific density dependence. Therefore, our results suggest non-stationary (i.e., time varying) and interactive effects of ocean climate and competition on pink salmon productivity. Our findings further highlight the need for salmon management to consider potential adverse effects of large-scale hatchery production within the context of ocean change.