Increases in the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits under warmer temperatures in two rainforestDrosophilaspecies

Macroecological predictors of evolutionary and plastic potential do not apply at microgeographic scales for a freshwater cladoceran under climate change

Rapid evolutionary adaptation could reduce the negative impacts of climate change if sufficient heritability of key traits exists under future climate conditions. Plastic responses to climate change could also reduce negative impacts. Understanding which populations are likely to respond via evolution or plasticity could therefore improve estimates of extinction risk. A large body of research suggests that the evolutionary and plastic potential of a population can be predicted by the degree of spatial and temporal climatic variation it experiences. However, we know little about the scale at which these relationships apply. Here, we test if spatial and temporal variation in temperature affects genetic variation and plasticity of fitness and a key thermal tolerance trait (critical thermal maximum; CTmax) at microgeographic scales using a metapopulation of Daphnia magna in freshwater rock pools. Specifically, we ask if (a) there is a microgeographic adaptation of CTmax and fitness to differences in temperature among the pools, (b) pools with greater temporal temperature variation have more genetic variation or plasticity in CTmax or fitness, and (c) increases in temperature affect the heritability of CTmax and fitness. Although we observed genetic variation and plasticity in CTmax and fitness, and differences in fitness among pools, we did not find support for the predicted relationships between temperature variation and genetic variation or plasticity. Furthermore, the genetic variation and plasticity we observed in CTmax are unlikely sufficient to reduce the impacts of climate change. CTmax plasticity was minimal and heritability was 72% lower when D. magna developed at the higher temperatures predicted under climate change. In contrast, the heritability of fitness increased by 53% under warmer temperatures, suggesting an increase in overall evolutionary potential unrelated to CTmax under climate change. More research is needed to understand the evolutionary and plastic potential under climate change and how that potential will be altered in future climates.

Assessing the role of family level variation and heat shock gene expression in the thermal stress response of the mosquito Aedes aegypti

The geographical range of the mosquito vector for many human disease-causing viruses, Aedes aegypti, is expanding, in part owing to changing climate. The capacity of this species to adapt to thermal stress will affect its future distributions. It is unclear how much heritable genetic variation may affect the upper thermal limits of mosquito populations over the long term. Nor are the genetic pathways that confer thermal tolerance fully understood. In the short term, cells induce a plastic, protective response known as 'heat shock'. Using a physiological 'knockdown' assay, we investigated mosquito thermal tolerance to characterize the genetic architecture of the trait. While families representing the extreme ends of the distribution for knockdown time differed from one another, the trait exhibited low but non-zero broad-sense heritability. We then explored whether families representing thermal performance extremes differed in their heat shock response by measuring gene expression of heat shock protein-encoding genes Hsp26, Hsp83 and Hsp70. Contrary to prediction, the families with higher thermal tolerance demonstrated less Hsp expression. This pattern may indicate that other mechanisms of heat tolerance, rather than heat shock, may underpin the stress response, and the costly production of HSPs may instead signal poor adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Evolutionary trade-offs between heat and cold tolerance limit responses to fluctuating climates

The evolutionary potential of species to cope with short-term temperature fluctuations during reproduction is critical to predicting responses to future climate change. Despite this, vertebrate research has focused on reproduction under high or low temperatures in relatively stable temperate climates. Here, we characterize the genetic basis of reproductive thermal tolerance to temperature fluctuations in the ostrich, which lives in variable environments in tropical and subtropical Africa. Both heat and cold tolerance were under selection and heritable, indicating the potential for evolutionary responses to mean temperature change. However, we found evidence for a negative, genetic correlation between heat and cold tolerance that should limit the potential for adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. Genetic constraints between heat and cold tolerance appear a crucial, yet underappreciated, factor influencing responses to climate change.

How do the physiological traits of a lizard change during its invasion of an oceanic island?

Physiology is crucial for the survival of invasive species in new environments. Yet, new climatic conditions and the limited genetic variation found within many invasive populations may influence physiological responses to new environmental conditions. Here, we studied the case of the delicate skinks (Lampropholis delicata) invading Lord Howe Island (LHI), Australia. On LHI, the climate is different from the mainland source of the skinks, and independent introduction events generated invasive populations with distinct genetic backgrounds. To understand how climate and genetic background may shape physiological responses along biological invasions, we compared the physiological traits of a source and two invasive (single-haplotype and multi-haplotype) populations of the delicate skink. For each population, we quantified physiological traits related to metabolism, sprint speed, and thermal physiology. We found that, for most physiological traits analysed, population history did not influence the ecophysiology of delicate skinks. However, invasive populations showed higher maximum speed than the source population, which indicates that locomotor performance might be a trait under selection during biological invasions. As well, the invasive population with a single haplotype was less cold-tolerant than the multi-haplotype and source populations. Our results suggest that limited genetic variability and climate may influence physiological responses of invasive organisms in novel environments. Incorporating the interplay between genetic and physiological responses into models predicting species invasions can result in more accurate understanding of the potential habitats those species can occupy.

How useful are thermal vulnerability indices?

To forecast climate change impacts across habitats or taxa, thermal vulnerability indices (e.g., safety margins and warming tolerances) are growing in popularity. Here, we present their history, context, formulation, and current applications. We highlight discrepancies in terminology and usage, and we draw attention to key assumptions underpinning the main indices and to their ecological and evolutionary relevance. In the process, we flag biases influencing these indices that are not always evaluated. These biases affect both components of index formulations, namely: (i) the characterisation of the thermal environment; and (ii) an organism's physiological and behavioural responses to more frequent and severe warming. Presently, many outstanding questions weaken a thermal vulnerability index approach. We describe ways to validate vulnerability index applications and outline issues to be considered in further developing these indices.

Positive genetic covariance and limited thermal tolerance constrain tropical insect responses to global warming

Tropical ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to global warming because their physiologies are assumed to be adapted to narrow temperature ranges. This study explores three mechanisms potentially constraining thermal adaptation to global warming in tropical insects: (a) Trade-offs in genotypic performance at different temperatures (the jack-of-all-trades hypothesis), (b) positive genetic covariance in performance, with some genotypes performing better than others at viable temperatures (the 'winner' and 'loser' genotypes hypothesis), or (c) limited genetic variation as the potential result of relaxed selection and the loss of genes associated with responses to extreme temperatures (the gene decay hypothesis). We estimated changes in growth and survival rates at multiple temperatures for three tropical rain forest insect herbivores (Cephaloleia rolled-leaf beetles, Chrysomelidae). We reared 2,746 individuals in a full sibling experimental design, at temperatures known to be experienced by this genus of beetles in nature (i.e. 10-35°C). Significant genetic covariance was positive for 16 traits, supporting the 'winner' and 'loser' genotypes hypothesis. Only two traits displayed negative cross-temperature performance correlations. We detected a substantial contribution of genetic variance in traits associated with size and mass (0%-44%), but low heritability in plastic traits such as development time (0%-6%) or survival (0%-4%). Lowland insect populations will most likely decline if current temperatures increase between 2 and 5°C. It is concerning that local adaption is already lagging behind current temperatures. The consequences of maintaining the current global warming trajectory would be devastating for tropical insects. However, if humans can limit or slow warming, many tropical ectotherms might persist in their current locations and potentially adapt to warmer temperatures.

Male fertility thermal limits predict vulnerability to climate warming

Forecasting which species/ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate warming is essential to guide conservation strategies to minimize extinction. Tropical/mid-latitude species are predicted to be most at risk as they live close to their upper critical thermal limits (CTLs). However, these assessments assume that upper CTL estimates, such as CTmax, are accurate predictors of vulnerability and ignore the potential for evolution to ameliorate temperature increases. Here, we use experimental evolution to assess extinction risk and adaptation in tropical and widespread Drosophila species. We find tropical species succumb to extinction before widespread species. Male fertility thermal limits, which are much lower than CTmax, are better predictors of species' current distributions and extinction in the laboratory. We find little evidence of adaptive responses to warming in any species. These results suggest that species are living closer to their upper thermal limits than currently presumed and evolution/plasticity are unlikely to rescue populations from extinction.

Temperate insects with narrow seasonal activity periods can be as vulnerable to climate change as tropical insect species

The magnitude and ecological impact of climate change varies with latitude. Several recent models have shown that tropical ectotherms face the greatest risk from warming because they currently experience temperatures much closer to their physiological optimum than temperate taxa. Even a small increase in temperature may thus result in steep fitness declines in tropical species but increased fitness in temperate species. This prediction, however, is based on a model that does not account for latitudinal differences in activity periods. Temperate species in particular may often experience considerably higher temperatures than expected during the active season. Here, we integrate data on insect warming tolerance and temperature-dependent development to re-evaluate latitudinal trends in thermal safety margins after accounting for latitudinal trends in insect seasonal activity. Our analyses suggest that temperate and tropical species differ far less in thermal safety margins than commonly assumed, and add to the recent number of studies suggesting that tropical and temperate species might face similar levels of threat from climate change.

Pathogen exposure disrupts an organism's ability to cope with thermal stress

As a result of global climate change, species are experiencing an escalation in the severity and regularity of extreme thermal events. With patterns of disease distribution and transmission predicted to undergo considerable shifts in the coming years, the interplay between temperature and pathogen exposure will likely determine the capacity of a population to persist under the dual threat of global change and infectious disease. In this study, we investigated how exposure to a pathogen affects an individual's ability to cope with extreme temperatures. Using experimental infections of Daphnia magna with its obligate bacterial pathogen Pasteuria ramosa, we measured upper thermal limits of multiple host and pathogen genotype combinations across the dynamic process of infection and under various forms (static and ramping) of thermal stress. We find that pathogens substantially limit the thermal tolerance of their host, with the reduction in upper thermal limits on par with the breadth of variation seen across similar species entire geographical ranges. The precise magnitude of any reduction, however, was specific to the host and pathogen genotype combination. In addition, as thermal ramping rate slowed, upper thermal limits of both healthy and infected individuals were reduced. Our results suggest that the capacity of a population to evolve new thermal limits, when also faced with the threat of infection, will depend not only on a host's genetic variability in warmer environments, but also on the frequency of host and pathogen genotypes. We suggest that pathogen-induced alterations of host thermal performance should be taken into account when assessing the resilience of any population and its potential for adaptation to global change.

Phenotypic plasticity, global change, and the speed of adaptive evolution

The role phenotypic plasticity might play in adaptation to the ongoing climate changes is unclear. Plasticity allows for the production of a diversity of intra-generational responses, whose inter-generational evolutionary consequences are difficult to predict. In this article, we review theory and empirical studies addressing this question in insects by considering three scenarios. The first scenario corresponds to adaptive plasticity that should lead to slow or no evolution. The second scenario is the case of non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity to new environmental conditions that should lead either to extinction or, on the contrary, to rapid evolutionary change. The third scenario deals with how plasticity alters the variance selection acts upon. These scenarios are then discussed by highlighting examples of empirical studies on insects. We conclude that more studies are needed to better understand the relationship between phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary processes in insects.

Comparative studies of critical physiological limits and vulnerability to environmental extremes in small ectotherms: How much environmental control is needed?

Researchers and practitioners are increasingly using comparative assessments of critical thermal and physiological limits to assess the relative vulnerability of ectothermic species to extreme thermal and aridity conditions occurring under climate change. In most assessments of vulnerability, critical limits are compared across taxa exposed to different environmental and developmental conditions. However, many aspects of vulnerability should ideally be compared when species are exposed to the same environmental conditions, allowing a partitioning of sources of variation such as used in quantitative genetics. This is particularly important when assessing the importance of different types of plasticity to critical limits, using phylogenetic analyses to test for evolutionary constraints, isolating genetic variants that contribute to limits, characterizing evolutionary interactions among traits limiting adaptive responses, and when assessing the role of cross generation effects. However, vulnerability assessments based on critical thermal/physiological limits also need to take place within a context that is relevant to field conditions, which is not easily provided under controlled environmental conditions where behavior, microhabitat, stress exposure rates and other factors will differ from field conditions. There are ways of reconciling these requirements, such as by taking organisms from controlled environments and then testing their performance under field conditions (or vice versa). While comparisons under controlled environments are challenging for many taxa, assessments of critical thermal limits and vulnerability will always be incomplete unless environmental effects within and across generations are considered, and where the ecological relevance of assays measuring critical limits can be established.

The role of tolerance variation in vulnerability forecasting of insects

Quantifying the amount of climatic change organisms can withstand before exceeding their physiological tolerance is a cornerstone of vulnerability forecasting. Yet most work in this area treats tolerance as a fixed trait. We review recent work that quantifies variation in high temperature tolerance across bioclimatic gradients, and we explore the implications for vulnerability to climate change. For some sources of variation, including differences in the evolutionary potential of heat tolerance across latitude, the typical biogeographic pattern of high vulnerability in the tropics is exacerbated. For other sources of variation, including certain types of plastic variation in heat tolerance, the biogeographic pattern of high tropical vulnerability is diminished. As a consequence, thermal tolerance variation should not be ignored in vulnerability forecasting.

Geographic variation and plasticity in climate stress resistance among southern African populations of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Traits of thermal sensitivity or performance are typically the focus of species distribution modelling. Among-population trait variation, trait plasticity, population connectedness and the possible climatic covariation thereof are seldom accounted for. Here, we examine multiple climate stress resistance traits, and the plasticity thereof, for a globally invasive agricultural pest insect, the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) (Diptera: Tephritidae). We also accounted for body size and population genetic connectivity among distinct populations from diverse bioclimatic regions across southern Africa. Desiccation resistance, starvation resistance, and critical thermal minimum (CT_min) and maximum (CT_max) of C. capitata varied between populations. For thermal tolerance traits, patterns of flexibility in response to thermal acclimation were suggestive of beneficial acclimation, but this was not the case for desiccation or starvation resistance. Population differences in measured traits were larger than those associated with acclimation, even though gene flow was high. Desiccation resistance was weakly but positively affected by growing degree-days. There was also a weak positive relationship between CT_min and temperature seasonality, but CT_max was weakly but negatively affected by the same bioclimatic variable. Our results suggest that the invasive potential of C. capitata may be supported by adaptation of tolerance traits to local bioclimatic conditions.

Hotter nests produce hatchling lizards with lower thermal tolerance

In many regions, the frequency and duration of summer heatwaves is predicted to increase in future. Hotter summers could result in higher temperatures inside lizard nests, potentially exposing embryos to thermally stressful conditions during development. Potentially, developmentally plastic shifts in thermal tolerance could allow lizards to adapt to climate warming. To determine how higher nest temperatures affect the thermal tolerance of hatchling geckos, we incubated eggs of the rock-dwelling velvet gecko, Amalosia lesueurii, at two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current nest temperatures (mean 23.2°C, range 10–33°C, ‘cold’) and future nest temperatures (mean 27.0°C, range 14–37°C, ‘hot’). Hatchlings from the hot incubation group hatched 27 days earlier and had a lower critical thermal maximum (CTmax 38.7°C) and a higher critical thermal minimum (CTmin 6.2°C) than hatchlings from cold incubation group (40.2 and 5.7°C, respectively). In the field, hatchlings typically settle under rocks near communal nests. During the hatching period, rock temperatures ranged from 13 to 59°C, and regularly exceeded the CTmax of both hot- and cold-incubated hatchlings. Because rock temperatures were so high, the heat tolerance of lizards had little effect on their ability to exploit rocks as retreat sites. Instead, the timing of hatching dictated whether lizards could exploit rocks as retreat sites; that is, cold-incubated lizards that hatched later encountered less thermally stressful environments than earlier hatching hot-incubated lizards. In conclusion, we found no evidence that CTmax can shift upwards in response to higher incubation temperatures, suggesting that hotter summers may increase the vulnerability of lizards to climate warming.

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate.