Variance in within-pair reproductive success influences the opportunity for selection annually and over the lifetimes of males in a multibrooded songbird

Disentangling the causes of temporal variation in the opportunity for sexual selection

In principle, temporal fluctuations in the potential for sexual selection can be estimated as changes in intrasexual variance in reproductive success (i.e. the opportunity for selection). However, we know little about how opportunity measures vary over time, and the extent to which such dynamics are affected by stochasticity. We use published mating data from multiple species to investigate temporal variation in the opportunity for sexual selection. First, we show that the opportunity for precopulatory sexual selection typically declines over successive days in both sexes and shorter sampling periods lead to substantial overestimates. Second, by utilising randomised null models, we also find that these dynamics are largely explained by an accumulation of random matings, but that intrasexual competition may slow temporal declines. Third, using data from a red junglefowl (Gallus gallus) population, we show that declines in precopulatory measures over a breeding period were mirrored by declines in the opportunity for both postcopulatory and total sexual selection. Collectively, we show that variance-based metrics of selection change rapidly, are highly sensitive to sampling durations, and likely lead to substantial misinterpretation if used as indicators of sexual selection. However, simulations can begin to disentangle stochastic variation from biological mechanisms.

The contribution of extra-pair paternity to the variation in lifetime and age-specific male reproductive success in a socially monogamous species

In socially monogamous species, extra-pair paternity (EPP) is predicted to increase variance in male reproductive success (RS) beyond that resulting from genetic monogamy, thus, increasing the "opportunity for selection" (maximum strength of selection that can act on traits). This prediction is challenging to investigate in wild populations because lifetime reproduction data are often incomplete. Moreover, age-specific variances in reproduction have been rarely quantified. We analyzed 21 years of near-complete social and genetic reproduction data from an insular population of Seychelles warblers (Acrocephalus sechellensis). We quantified EPP's contribution to lifetime and age-specific opportunities for selection in males. We compared the variance in male genetic RS vs social ("apparent") RS (RS_ap ) to assess if EPP increased the opportunity for selection over that resulting from genetic monogamy. Despite not causing a statistically significant excess (19%) of the former over the latter, EPP contributed substantially (27%) to the variance in lifetime RS, similarly to within-pair paternity (WPP, 39%) and to the positive WPP-EPP covariance (34%). Partitioning the opportunity for selection into age-specific (co)variance components, showed that EPP also provided a substantial contribution at most ages, varying with age. Therefore, despite possibly not playing the main role in shaping sexual selection in Seychelles warblers, EPP provided a substantial contribution to the lifetime and age-specific opportunity for selection, which can influence evolutionary processes in age-structured populations.

Digest: Sexual selection in a multibrooded songbird: The social pair matters

Which sources of variance in socially monogamous species offer the largest opportunity for sexual selection? Germain et al. study this question in a double-brooding songbird and find that male reproductive success gained within the social bond stands out as an important source of variance across years and lifetimes.