Evolution in fluctuating environments: A generic modular approach

Microbial diversity and ecological complexity emerging from environmental variation and horizontal gene transfer in a simple mathematical model

Microbiomes are generally characterized by high diversity of coexisting microbial species and strains that remains stable within a broad range of conditions. However, under fixed conditions, microbial ecology conforms with the exclusion principle under which two populations competing for the same resource within the same niche cannot coexist because the less fit population inevitably goes extinct. To explore the conditions for stabilization of microbial diversity, we developed a simple mathematical model consisting of two competing populations that could exchange a single gene allele via horizontal gene transfer (HGT). We found that, although in a fixed environment, with unbiased HGT, the system obeyed the exclusion principle, in an oscillating environment, within large regions of the phase space bounded by the rates of reproduction and HGT, the two populations coexist. Moreover, depending on the parameter combination, all three major types of symbiosis obtained, namely, pure competition, host-parasite relationship and mutualism. In each of these regimes, certain parameter combinations provided for synergy, that is, a greater total abundance of both populations compared to the abundance of the winning population in the fixed environments. These findings show that basic phenomena that are universal in microbial communities, environmental variation and HGT, provide for stabilization of microbial diversity and ecological complexity.

How do fluctuating ecological dynamics impact the evolution of hosts and parasites?

Theoretical models of the evolution of parasites and their hosts have shaped our understanding of infectious disease dynamics for over 40 years. Many theoretical models assume that the underlying ecological dynamics are at equilibrium or constant, yet we know that in a great many systems there are fluctuations in the ecological dynamics owing to a variety of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. Here, we discuss the challenges presented when modelling evolution in systems with fluctuating ecological dynamics and summarize the main approaches that have been developed to study host-parasite evolution in such systems. We provide an in-depth guide to one of the methods by applying it to two worked examples of host evolution that have not previously been studied in the literature: when cycles occur owing to seasonal forcing in competition, and when the presence of a free-living parasite causes cycles, with accompanying interactive Python code provided. We review the findings of studies that have explored host-parasite evolution when ecological dynamics fluctuate, and point to areas of future research. Throughout we stress the importance of feedbacks between the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in driving the outcomes of infectious disease systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.