The abiotic and biotic factors limiting establishment of predatory fishes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario, Canada

When species don't move together: Non-concurrent range shifts in Eastern Pacific kelp forest communities

Species range shifts due to changing ocean conditions are occurring around the world. As species move, they build new interaction networks as they shift from or into new ecological communities. Typically, species ranges are modeled individually, but biotic interactions have been shown to be important to creating more realistic modeling outputs for species. To understand the importance of consumer interactions in Eastern Pacific kelp forest species distributions, we used a Maxent framework to model a key foundation species, giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), and a dominant herbivore, purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). With neither species having previously been modeled in the Eastern Pacific, we found evidence for M. pyrifera expansion in the northern section of its range, with no projected contraction at the southern range edge. Despite its known co-occurrence with M. pyrifera, models of S. purpuratus showed a non-concurrent southern range contraction and a co-occurring northern range expansion. While the co-occurring shifts may lead to increased spatial competition for suitable substrate, this non-concurrent contraction could result in community wide impacts such as herbivore release, tropicalization, or ecosystem restructuring.

Can fish species co-occurrence patterns be predicted by their trait dissimilarities?

Trait-based analyses have been successful in determining and predicting species association outcomes in diverse communities. Most studies have limited the scope of this approach to the biotic responses of a small number of species or geographical regions. We focused on determining whether three biologically relevant traits (body size, temperature preference and trophic level) influence the patterns of co-occurrence between multiple species. We used fish species presence/absence from 9204 lakes in Ontario, Canada, to obtain effect sizes of 2001 species-pair co-occurrence values, using a null model approach. Euclidean distances between each species-pair were calculated for each of the three traits selected. Multiple regression models and randomization tests were used to determine the direction and significance of the relationship of each trait with the observed co-occurrence values. The results show that species temperature preference was significantly related to co-occurrence patterns, indicating the effect of environmental filtering. Trophic level was significantly related to co-occurrence values for both linear and quadratic terms, suggesting that segregation between species is driven by large differences in this trait (predation effects). Unexpectedly, body size was not significantly related to the observed co-occurrence patterns. We provide a new approach to test relationships between species assemblages and trait conditions.

Observed and projected functional reorganization of riverine fish assemblages from global change

Climate and land-use/land-cover change ("global change") are restructuring biodiversity, globally. Broadly, environmental conditions are expected to become warmer, potentially drier (particularly in arid regions), and more anthropogenically developed in the future, with spatiotemporally complex effects on ecological communities. We used functional traits to inform Chesapeake Bay Watershed fish responses to future climate and land-use scenarios (2030, 2060, and 2090). We modeled the future habitat suitability of focal species representative of key trait axes (substrate, flow, temperature, reproduction, and trophic) and used functional and phylogenetic metrics to assess variable assemblage responses across physiographic regions and habitat sizes (headwaters through large rivers). Our focal species analysis projected future habitat suitability gains for carnivorous species with preferences for warm water, pool habitats, and fine or vegetated substrates. At the assemblage level, models projected decreasing habitat suitability for cold-water, rheophilic, and lithophilic individuals but increasing suitability for carnivores in the future across all regions. Projected responses of functional and phylogenetic diversity and redundancy differed among regions. Lowland regions were projected to become less functionally and phylogenetically diverse and more redundant while upland regions (and smaller habitat sizes) were projected to become more diverse and less redundant. Next, we assessed how these model-projected assemblage changes 2005-2030 related to observed time-series trends (1999-2016). Halfway through the initial projecting period (2005-2030), we found observed trends broadly followed modeled patterns of increasing proportions of carnivorous and lithophilic individuals in lowland regions but showed opposing patterns for functional and phylogenetic metrics. Leveraging observed and predicted analyses simultaneously helps elucidate the instances and causes of discrepancies between model predictions and ongoing observed changes. Collectively, results highlight the complexity of global change impacts across broad landscapes that likely relate to differences in assemblages' intrinsic sensitivities and external exposure to stressors.

Biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups along a lake water-depth gradient: Effects of abiotic and biotic drivers

Understanding biodiversity patterns and the role of biotic attributes in governing these patterns remains one of the most important challenges in ecology. Here, taking water depth in Lake Lugu as a typical geographical gradient, we studied how these different taxa, that is bacteria, diatoms and chironomids, respond to the water depth and environmental gradients using molecular and morphological methods. We further evaluated the relative importance of water depth, environmental variables and biotic attributes in explaining biological characteristics, such as biomass, species richness, and community composition. The biomass of chironomids and the richness of bacteria and chironomids showed a nonlinearly decreasing pattern associated with increased water depth, while biomass and species richness of diatoms showed U-shaped and hump-shaped patterns, respectively. The three taxonomic groups all showed increasing dissimilarity with water depth changes, and there was clear cross-taxon congruence among the variations in community composition. Abiotic variables were pivotal in structuring biological characteristics; however, the biotic attributes also explained a unique portion of their variations. This suggests that biotic interactions significantly influenced the patterns of biomass, species richness, and community compositions along the water depth gradient for the three taxonomic groups studied. Our results provide new evidence that biotic attributes could help in predicting the biodiversity of aquatic communities along geographical gradients, such as water depth.

The Relative Abundance of Benthic Bacterial Phyla Along a Water-Depth Gradient in a Plateau Lake: Physical, Chemical, and Biotic Drivers

Water-depth biodiversity gradient, one of the typical biogeographical patterns on Earth, is understudied for bacteria in freshwater ecosystems, and thus left the underlying mechanisms poorly understood especially for benthic bacteria. Here, we investigated the water-depth distribution of surface sediment bacterial phyla and their driving factors in Lake Lugu, a plateau lake in Southwest China. Our results revealed that the relative abundance of 11 dominant bacterial phyla showed various water-depth patterns, such as increasing, decreasing, hump-shaped, and U-shaped patterns. These patterns across phyla were consistent with their different niche positions of water depth, while the occupancy-abundance relationships were not dependent on phylum attributes. Consistently, phylum abundance was best explained by water depth; other physical and chemical factors, such as metal ion concentrations, SiO₂, and pH, can also explain the variations in some bacterial phyla. Chemical variables were the main drivers of the dominant bacterial phyla. However, biotic variables also showed substantial importance for some phyla, such as Planctomycetes, Actinobacteria, and WS3. This work could provide new insights into the general water-depth patterns and underlying mechanisms of the relative abundance of bacterial phyla in freshwater ecosystems.

Context-dependent interactions and the regulation of species richness in freshwater fish

Species richness is regulated by a complex network of scale-dependent processes. This complexity can obscure the influence of limiting species interactions, making it difficult to determine if abiotic or biotic drivers are more predominant regulators of richness. Using integrative modeling of freshwater fish richness from 721 lakes along an 11^o latitudinal gradient, we find negative interactions to be a relatively minor independent predictor of species richness in lakes despite the widespread presence of predators. Instead, interaction effects, when detectable among major functional groups and 231 species pairs, were strong, often positive, but contextually dependent on environment. These results are consistent with the idea that negative interactions internally structure lake communities but do not consistently ‘scale-up’ to regulate richness independently of the environment. The importance of environment for interaction outcomes and its role in the regulation of species richness highlights the potential sensitivity of fish communities to the environmental changes affecting lakes globally.

Species richness patterns are driven by biotic and abiotic factors, the relative strengths of which are unclear. Here, the authors test how species interactions or environmental traits influence fish richness across over 700 Canadian lakes, showing a surprisingly small role of negative interactions.

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Evolutionary responses to climate change in a range expanding plant

To understand the biological effects of climate change, it is essential to take into account species’ evolutionary responses to their changing environments. Ongoing climate change is resulting in species shifting their geographical distribution ranges poleward. We tested whether a successful range expanding plant has rapidly adapted to the regional conditions in its novel range, and whether adaptation could be driven by herbivores. Furthermore, we investigated if enemy release occurred in the newly colonized areas and whether plant origins differed in herbivore resistance. Plants were cloned and reciprocally transplanted between three experimental sites across the range. Effects of herbivores on plant performance were tested by individually caging plants with either open or closed cages. There was no indication of (regional) adaptation to abiotic conditions. Plants originating from the novel range were always larger than plants from the core distribution at all experimental sites, with or without herbivory. Herbivore damage was highest and not lowest at the experimental sites in the novel range, suggesting no release from enemy impact. Genotypes from the core were more damaged compared to genotypes from newly colonized areas at the most northern site in the novel range, which was dominated by generalist slug herbivory. We also detected subtle shifts in chemical defenses between the plant origins. Genotypes from the novel range had more inducible defenses. Our results suggest that plants that are expanding their range with climate change may evolve increased vigor and altered herbivore resistance in their new range, analogous to invasive plants.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

The vulnerability of species to range expansions by predators can be predicted using historical species associations and body size

Climate change threatens species directly through environmental changes and indirectly through its effects on species interactions. We need tools to predict which species are most vulnerable to these threats. Pairwise species associations and body size are simple but promising predictors of the relative impact of species introduced outside of their historical ranges. We examined the vulnerability of 30 fish species to the impacts of three centrarchid predators that are being introduced to lakes north of their historical range boundaries. Species that were negatively associated with each centrarchid in their historical range were more likely to be lost from lakes with centrarchid introductions. Total body length was most important in predicting impact for the most gape-limited predator. At the regional scale, our method identifies those species most vulnerable to introductions facilitated by climate change and can easily be applied to a range of taxa undergoing range expansions.