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Ghislain M, Bonnet T, Godeau U, Dehorter O, Gimenez O, Henry PY. Synchrony in adult survival is remarkably strong among common temperate songbirds across France. Ecology 2024; 105:e4305. [PMID: 38679955 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4305] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024]
Abstract
Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta-populations and meta-communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta-populations and meta-communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark-recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001-2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%-94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long-term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4-month temperate breeding season has a large-scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%-5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large-scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%-37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age-dependent survival, and age-dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta-communities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manon Ghislain
- Mécanismes adaptatifs et évolution (MECADEV UMR 7179), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brunoy, France
- Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux (CRBPO), Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR 7204), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, CP135, Paris, France
- PatriNat (OFB-MNHN-CNRS-IRD), Centre d'expertise et de données sur le patrimoine naturel, Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Paris, France
| | - Timothée Bonnet
- Division of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, ANU College of Science, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
- Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC UMR 7372), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Ugoline Godeau
- Mécanismes adaptatifs et évolution (MECADEV UMR 7179), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brunoy, France
- Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux (CRBPO), Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR 7204), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, CP135, Paris, France
- Institut national de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture, Ecosystèmes Forestiers (UR EFNO), Domaine des Barres, Nogent-Sur-Vernisson, France
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, UR 406 Abeilles et Environnement, Avignon, France
| | - Olivier Dehorter
- Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux (CRBPO), Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR 7204), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, CP135, Paris, France
| | - Olivier Gimenez
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE UMR 5175), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, Ecole Pratique des Hautes Études, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Pierre-Yves Henry
- Mécanismes adaptatifs et évolution (MECADEV UMR 7179), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brunoy, France
- Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux (CRBPO), Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR 7204), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, CP135, Paris, France
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2
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Malchow AK, Hartig F, Reeg J, Kéry M, Zurell D. Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220194. [PMID: 37246385 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 04/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, we aim to infer demography-climate relationships from distribution and abundance data. For this, we developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes-juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to 267 nationwide abundance time series in a Bayesian framework. The fitted models showed moderate to excellent goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Contemporary climate change benefitted the population trends of typical mountain birds leading to lower population losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic process-based models embedded in a robust statistical framework can improve our predictions of range dynamics and may allow disentangling of the underlying processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical studies in order to gain more precise insights into the mechanisms by which climate affects populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- A-K Malchow
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - F Hartig
- Theoretical Ecology Lab, Faculty of Biology and Pre-Clinical Medicine, University of Regensburg, 93053 Regensburg, Germany
| | - J Reeg
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - M Kéry
- Swiss Ornithological Institute, 6204 Sempach, Switzerland
| | - D Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
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3
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It’s not all abundance: Detectability and accessibility of food also explain breeding investment in long-lived marine animals. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0273615. [PMID: 36129934 PMCID: PMC9491606 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Large-scale climatic indices are extensively used as predictors of ecological processes, but the mechanisms and the spatio-temporal scales at which climatic indices influence these processes are often speculative. Here, we use long-term data to evaluate how a measure of individual breeding investment (the egg volume) of three long-lived and long-distance-migrating seabirds is influenced by i) a large-scale climatic index (the North Atlantic Oscillation) and ii) local-scale variables (food abundance, foraging conditions, and competition). Winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation did not correlate with local-scale variables measured in spring, but surprisingly, both had a high predictive power of the temporal variability of the egg volume in the three study species, even though they have different life-history strategies. The importance of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation suggests carry-over effects of winter conditions on subsequent breeding investment. Interestingly, the most important local-scale variables measured in spring were associated with food detectability (foraging conditions) and the factors influencing its accessibility (foraging conditions and competition by density-dependence). Large-scale climatic indices may work better as predictors of foraging conditions when organisms perform long distance migrations, while local-scale variables are more appropriate when foraging areas are more restricted (e.g. during the breeding season). Contrary to what is commonly assumed, food abundance does not directly translate into food intake and its detectability and accessibility should be considered in the study of food-related ecological processes.
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4
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Caruso NM, Staudhammer CL, Rissler LJ. A demographic approach to understanding the effects of climate on population growth. Oecologia 2020; 193:889-901. [PMID: 32803340 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-020-04731-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2019] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Amphibian life history traits are affected by temperature and precipitation. Yet, connecting these relationships to population growth, especially for multiple populations within a species, is lacking and precludes our understanding of amphibian population dynamics and distributions. Therefore, we constructed integral projection models for five populations along an elevational gradient to determine how climate and season affect population growth of a terrestrial salamander Plethodon montanus and the importance of demographic vital rates to population growth under varying climate scenarios. We found that population growth was typically higher at the highest elevation compared to the lower elevations, whereas varying inactive season conditions, represented by the late fall, winter and early spring, produced a greater variation in population growth than varying active season conditions (late spring, summer, and early fall). Furthermore, survival and growth were consistently more important, as measured by elasticity, compared to fecundity, and large females had the greatest elasticity compared to all other body sizes. Our results suggest that changing inactive season conditions, especially those that would affect the survival of large individuals, may have the greatest impact on population growth. We recommend future experimental studies focus on the inactive season to better elucidate the mechanisms by which these conditions can affect survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas M Caruso
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, 35487, USA. .,Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, USA.
| | | | - Leslie J Rissler
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, 35487, USA.,Division of Environmental Biology, National Science Foundation, Alexandria, VA, 22314, USA
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5
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Iles DT, Lynch H, Ji R, Barbraud C, Delord K, Jenouvrier S. Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:3788-3798. [PMID: 32190944 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2019] [Revised: 02/17/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- David T Iles
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | | | - Rubao Ji
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers-en-Bois, France
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6
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Chiffard J, Delestrade A, Yoccoz NG, Loison A, Besnard A. Warm temperatures during cold season can negatively affect adult survival in an alpine bird. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:12531-12543. [PMID: 31788195 PMCID: PMC6875669 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2019] [Revised: 09/05/2019] [Accepted: 09/09/2019] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate seasonality is a predominant constraint on the lifecycles of species in alpine and polar biomes. Assessing the response of these species to climate change thus requires taking into account seasonal constraints on populations. However, interactions between seasonality, weather fluctuations, and population parameters remain poorly explored as they require long-term studies with high sampling frequency. This study investigated the influence of environmental covariates on the demography of a corvid species, the alpine chough Pyrrhocorax graculus, in the highly seasonal environment of the Mont Blanc region. In two steps, we estimated: (1) the seasonal survival of categories of individuals based on their age, sex, etc., (2) the effect of environmental covariates on seasonal survival. We hypothesized that the cold season-and more specifically, the end of the cold season (spring)-would be a critical period for individuals, and we expected that weather and individual covariates would influence survival variation during critical periods. We found that while spring was a critical season for adult female survival, it was not for males. This is likely because females are dominated by males at feeding sites during snowy seasons (winter and spring), and additionally must invest energy in egg production. When conditions were not favorable, which seemed to happen when the cold season was warmer than usual, females probably reached their physiological limits. Surprisingly, adult survival was higher at the beginning of the cold season than in summer, which may result from adaptation to harsh weather in alpine and polar vertebrates. This hypothesis could be confirmed by testing it with larger sets of populations. This first seasonal analysis of individual survival over the full life cycle in a sedentary alpine bird shows that including seasonality in demographic investigations is crucial to better understand the potential impacts of climate change on cold ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jules Chiffard
- Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE)Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE)UMR 5175Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)PSL Research UniversityMontpellierFrance
| | - Anne Delestrade
- Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d'Altitude (CREA)Observatoire du Mont BlancChamonixFrance
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA)CNRSUniversité Grenoble AlpesUniversité Savoie Mont BlancGrenobleFrance
| | - Nigel Gilles Yoccoz
- Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d'Altitude (CREA)Observatoire du Mont BlancChamonixFrance
- Department of Arctic and Marine BiologyUiT The Arctic University of NorwayTromsøNorway
| | - Anne Loison
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA)CNRSUniversité Grenoble AlpesUniversité Savoie Mont BlancGrenobleFrance
| | - Aurélien Besnard
- Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE)Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE)UMR 5175Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)PSL Research UniversityMontpellierFrance
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7
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Endemic shearwaters are increasing in the Mediterranean in relation to factors that are closely related to human activities. Glob Ecol Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00740] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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8
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Tavares DC, Moura JF, Merico A, Siciliano S. Mortality of seabirds migrating across the tropical Atlantic in relation to oceanographic processes. Anim Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12539] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- D. C. Tavares
- Department of Theoretical Ecology and Modelling Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research Bremen Germany
| | - J. F. Moura
- Department of Theoretical Ecology and Modelling Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research Bremen Germany
| | - A. Merico
- Department of Theoretical Ecology and Modelling Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research Bremen Germany
- Department of Physics & Earth Science Jacobs University Bremen Germany
| | - S. Siciliano
- Laboratório de Enterobactérias Instituto Oswaldo Cruz/Fiocruz Rio de Janeiro Brazil
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9
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Pacoureau N, Delord K, Jenouvrier S, Barbraud C. Demographic and population responses of an apex predator to climate and its prey: a long‐term study of South Polar Skuas. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan Pacoureau
- Centre d’Études Biologiques de Chizé UMR‐CNRS 7372 79360 Villiers‐en‐Bois France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d’Études Biologiques de Chizé UMR‐CNRS 7372 79360 Villiers‐en‐Bois France
| | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Centre d’Études Biologiques de Chizé UMR‐CNRS 7372 79360 Villiers‐en‐Bois France
- Biology Department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution MS‐50 Woods Hole Massachusetts 02543 USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d’Études Biologiques de Chizé UMR‐CNRS 7372 79360 Villiers‐en‐Bois France
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10
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Millon A, Lambin X, Devillard S, Schaub M. Quantifying the contribution of immigration to population dynamics: a review of methods, evidence and perspectives in birds and mammals. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2019; 94:2049-2067. [DOI: 10.1111/brv.12549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2019] [Revised: 07/10/2019] [Accepted: 07/17/2019] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre Millon
- Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, IMBE, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Technopôle Arbois‐Méditerranée, Bât. Villemin – BP 80 F‐13545 Aix‐en‐Provence cedex 04 France
| | - Xavier Lambin
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Aberdeen Tillydrone Avenue, Zoology Building, University of Aberdeen, AB24 2TZ Aberdeen U.K
| | - Sébastien Devillard
- Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive F‐69100 Villeurbanne France
| | - Michael Schaub
- Swiss Ornithological Institute Seerose 1, 6204 Sempach Switzerland
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11
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Tenan S, Tavecchia G, Oro D, Pradel R. Assessing the effect of density on population growth when modeling individual encounter data. Ecology 2019; 100:e02595. [PMID: 30620394 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2595] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2018] [Revised: 11/06/2018] [Accepted: 12/03/2018] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
The relative role of density-dependent and density-independent variation in vital rates and population size remains largely unsolved. Despite its importance to the theory and application of population ecology, and to conservation biology, quantifying the role and strength of density dependence is particularly challenging. We present a hierarchical formulation of the temporal symmetry approach, also known as the Pradel model, that permits estimation of the strength of density dependence from capture-mark-reencounter data. A measure of relative population size is built in the model and serves to detect density dependence directly on population growth rate. The model is also extended to account for temporal random variability in demographic rates, allowing estimation of the temporal variance of population growth rate unexplained by density dependence. We thus present a model-based approach that enable to test and quantify the effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors affecting population fluctuations in a single modeling framework. More generally, we use this modeling framework along with simulated and empirical data to show the value of including density dependence when modeling individual encounter data without the need for auxiliary data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simone Tenan
- MUSE - Science Museum, Vertebrate Zoology Section, Corso del Lavoro e della Scienza 3, Trento, 38122, Italy
| | - Giacomo Tavecchia
- Animal Ecology and Demography Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marqués 21, Esporles, Mallorca, 07190, Spain
| | - Daniel Oro
- Blanes Centre for Advanced Studies, CEAB (CSIC), C/d'accés a la Cala St. Francesc 14, Blanes, 17300, Spain
| | - Roger Pradel
- CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE, Montpellier, Cedex 5, France
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12
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Caruso NM, Rissler LJ. Demographic consequences of climate variation along an elevational gradient for a montane terrestrial salamander. POPUL ECOL 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/1438-390x.1005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas M. Caruso
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alabama Tuscaloosa Alabama
| | - Leslie J. Rissler
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alabama Tuscaloosa Alabama
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13
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Iles DT, Rockwell RF, Koons DN. Reproductive success of a keystone herbivore is more variable and responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity. J Anim Ecol 2018; 87:1182-1191. [PMID: 29676509 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12837] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2017] [Accepted: 03/15/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The effects of climate on wild populations are often channelled through species interactions. Population responses to climate variation can therefore differ across habitats, owing to variation in the biotic community. Theory predicts that consumer demography should be less variable and less responsive to climate in habitats with greater resource diversity. We tested these predictions using a long-term study of breeding lesser snow geese along the western coast of Hudson Bay, Manitoba, Canada. Reproductive success was measured in 22 years from 114 locations, in either coastal or inland habitat types. We used Bayesian analysis to estimate the response of reproductive success to climate in each habitat type, along with residual variation not explained by climate. We then quantified gosling diet composition in each habitat type to test the prediction that reproductive success would be less variable and more responsive to climate in habitats with lower resource diversity. Reproductive success responded positively to seasonal warmness, but this response was much stronger in inland habitats than in coastal habitats. Site- and year-level random effects were also three to five times more variable in inland habitats. Simultaneously, land cover diversity and gosling diet diversity were lower in inland habitats. Our study illustrates that spatial variation in resource diversity (and thus, species interactions) can have important effects on consumer responses to climate. In this system, climate change is expected to disproportionately increase the reproductive success of snow geese in vast inland habitats, potentially counteracting management efforts to reduce the abundance of this keystone herbivore.
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Affiliation(s)
- David T Iles
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
| | - Robert F Rockwell
- Department of Ornithology, Division of Vertebrate Zoology, American Museum of Natural History, New York, New York
| | - David N Koons
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
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14
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Tompkins EM, Townsend HM, Anderson DJ. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0182545. [PMID: 28832597 PMCID: PMC5568137 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2017] [Accepted: 07/17/2017] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily M Tompkins
- Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Howard M Townsend
- Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, United States of America
- NOAA/NMFS/HC/Chesapeake Bay Office, Cooperative Oxford Lab, Oxford, Maryland, United States of America
| | - David J Anderson
- Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, United States of America
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15
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Younger JL, Clucas GV, Kao D, Rogers AD, Gharbi K, Hart T, Miller KJ. The challenges of detecting subtle population structure and its importance for the conservation of emperor penguins. Mol Ecol 2017; 26:3883-3897. [PMID: 28488293 DOI: 10.1111/mec.14172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2016] [Revised: 03/09/2017] [Accepted: 04/24/2017] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Understanding the boundaries of breeding populations is of great importance for conservation efforts and estimates of extinction risk for threatened species. However, determining these boundaries can be difficult when population structure is subtle. Emperor penguins are highly reliant on sea ice, and some populations may be in jeopardy as climate change alters sea-ice extent and quality. An understanding of emperor penguin population structure is therefore urgently needed. Two previous studies have differed in their conclusions, particularly whether the Ross Sea, a major stronghold for the species, is isolated or not. We assessed emperor penguin population structure using 4,596 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), characterized in 110 individuals (10-16 per colony) from eight colonies around Antarctica. In contrast to a previous conclusion that emperor penguins are panmictic around the entire continent, we find that emperor penguins comprise at least four metapopulations, and that the Ross Sea is clearly a distinct metapopulation. Using larger sample sizes and a thorough assessment of the limitations of different analytical methods, we have shown that population structure within emperor penguins does exist and argue that its recognition is vital for the effective conservation of the species. We discuss the many difficulties that molecular ecologists and managers face in the detection and interpretation of subtle population structure using large SNP data sets, and argue that subtle structure should be taken into account when determining management strategies for threatened species, until accurate estimates of demographic connectivity among populations can be made.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jane L Younger
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Department of Biology, Loyola University Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
| | - Gemma V Clucas
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Ocean & Earth Sciences, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, UK
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, USA
| | - Damian Kao
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Alex D Rogers
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Karim Gharbi
- Edinburgh Genomics, Ashworth Laboratories, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Tom Hart
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Karen J Miller
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, The University of Western Australia (MO96), Crawley, WA, Australia
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16
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Tenan S, Fasola M, Volponi S, Tavecchia G. Conspecific and not performance-based attraction on immigrants drives colony growth in a waterbird. J Anim Ecol 2017; 86:1074-1081. [PMID: 28502084 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Local recruitment and immigration play an important part in the dynamics and growth of animal populations. However, their estimation and incorporation into open population models is, in most cases, problematic. We studied factors affecting the growth of a recently established colony of Eurasian spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia) and assessed the contribution of local recruits, i.e. birds born in the colony, and immigrants, i.e. birds of unknown origin, to colony growth. We applied an integrated population model that accounts for uncertainty in breeding state assignment and merges population surveys, local fecundity and individual longitudinal data of breeding and non-breeding birds, to estimate demographic rates and the relative role of recruitment and immigration in driving the local dynamics. We also used this analytical framework to assess the degree of support for the 'performance-based' and 'conspecific attraction' hypotheses as possible mechanisms of colony growth. Among the demographic rates, only immigration was positively and significantly correlated with population growth rate. In addition, the number of immigrants settling in the colony was positively correlated with colony size in the previous and current year, but was not correlated with fecundity of the previous year. Our results suggest that the variation in immigration affected colony dynamics and that conspecific attraction likely triggered the relevant role of immigration in the growth of a recently formed waterbird colony, supporting the need of including immigration in population analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simone Tenan
- Vertebrate Zoology Section, MUSE - Museo delle Scienze, Trento, Italy
| | - Mauro Fasola
- Dipartimento Scienze della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
| | - Stefano Volponi
- Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA), Ozzano Emilia (BO), Italy
| | - Giacomo Tavecchia
- Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Esporles (Mallorca), Spain
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17
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Csergő AM, Salguero-Gómez R, Broennimann O, Coutts SR, Guisan A, Angert AL, Welk E, Stott I, Enquist BJ, McGill B, Svenning JC, Violle C, Buckley YM. Less favourable climates constrain demographic strategies in plants. Ecol Lett 2017; 20:969-980. [PMID: 28609810 PMCID: PMC5575490 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12794] [Citation(s) in RCA: 71] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2017] [Revised: 04/14/2017] [Accepted: 05/07/2017] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Correlative species distribution models are based on the observed relationship between species’ occurrence and macroclimate or other environmental variables. In climates predicted less favourable populations are expected to decline, and in favourable climates they are expected to persist. However, little comparative empirical support exists for a relationship between predicted climate suitability and population performance. We found that the performance of 93 populations of 34 plant species worldwide – as measured by in situ population growth rate, its temporal variation and extinction risk – was not correlated with climate suitability. However, correlations of demographic processes underpinning population performance with climate suitability indicated both resistance and vulnerability pathways of population responses to climate: in less suitable climates, plants experienced greater retrogression (resistance pathway) and greater variability in some demographic rates (vulnerability pathway). While a range of demographic strategies occur within species’ climatic niches, demographic strategies are more constrained in climates predicted to be less suitable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna M Csergő
- Department of Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia
| | - Roberto Salguero-Gómez
- Department of Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia.,Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK.,Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, 18057, Rostock, Germany
| | - Olivier Broennimann
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.,Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Shaun R Coutts
- Department of Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.,Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
| | - Antoine Guisan
- Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.,Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Amy L Angert
- Departments of Botany and Zoology, Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 115-2212 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Erik Welk
- Institute of Biology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, 06099, Halle (Saale), Germany.,German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, 04103, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Iain Stott
- Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Konrad-Zuse-Straße 1, 18057, Rostock, Germany.,Department of Biology, Max Planck Odense Center, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, DK-5230, Odense M, Denmark
| | - Brian J Enquist
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Arizona, 1040 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Brian McGill
- School of Biology and Ecology, The University of Maine, Deering Hall Room 202, Orono, ME, 04469, USA
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Section for Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000, Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Cyrille Violle
- CNRS, CEFE UMR 5175, Université de Montpellier - Université Paul Valéry - EPHE, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Yvonne M Buckley
- Department of Zoology, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.,ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia
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18
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Mattern T, Meyer S, Ellenberg U, Houston DM, Darby JT, Young M, van Heezik Y, Seddon PJ. Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin. PeerJ 2017; 5:e3272. [PMID: 28533952 PMCID: PMC5436559 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2017] [Accepted: 03/28/2017] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors—especially those of anthropogenic origins—may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas Mattern
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Stefan Meyer
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Ursula Ellenberg
- Department of Ecology, Environment and Evolution, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - David M Houston
- Science and Policy Group, Department of Conservation, Auckland, New Zealand
| | | | - Melanie Young
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | | | - Philip J Seddon
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
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19
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Buckley YM, Csergő AM. Predicting invasion winners and losers under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:4040-4041. [PMID: 28377519 PMCID: PMC5402427 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1703510114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Yvonne M Buckley
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
| | - Anna M Csergő
- School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland
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20
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Clucas GV, Younger JL, Kao D, Rogers AD, Handley J, Miller GD, Jouventin P, Nolan P, Gharbi K, Miller KJ, Hart T. Dispersal in the sub-Antarctic: king penguins show remarkably little population genetic differentiation across their range. BMC Evol Biol 2016; 16:211. [PMID: 27733109 PMCID: PMC5062852 DOI: 10.1186/s12862-016-0784-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2016] [Accepted: 09/30/2016] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Seabirds are important components of marine ecosystems, both as predators and as indicators of ecological change, being conspicuous and sensitive to changes in prey abundance. To determine whether fluctuations in population sizes are localised or indicative of large-scale ecosystem change, we must first understand population structure and dispersal. King penguins are long-lived seabirds that occupy a niche across the sub-Antarctic zone close to the Polar Front. Colonies have very different histories of exploitation, population recovery, and expansion. Results We investigated the genetic population structure and patterns of colonisation of king penguins across their current range using a dataset of 5154 unlinked, high-coverage single nucleotide polymorphisms generated via restriction site associated DNA sequencing (RADSeq). Despite breeding at a small number of discrete, geographically separate sites, we find only very slight genetic differentiation among colonies separated by thousands of kilometers of open-ocean, suggesting migration among islands and archipelagos may be common. Our results show that the South Georgia population is slightly differentiated from all other colonies and suggest that the recently founded Falkland Island colony is likely to have been established by migrants from the distant Crozet Islands rather than nearby colonies on South Georgia, possibly as a result of density-dependent processes. Conclusions The observed subtle differentiation among king penguin colonies must be considered in future conservation planning and monitoring of the species, and demographic models that attempt to forecast extinction risk in response to large-scale climate change must take into account migration. It is possible that migration could buffer king penguins against some of the impacts of climate change where colonies appear panmictic, although it is unlikely to protect them completely given the widespread physical changes projected for their Southern Ocean foraging grounds. Overall, large-scale population genetic studies of marine predators across the Southern Ocean are revealing more interconnection and migration than previously supposed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0784-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gemma V Clucas
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK. .,Ocean & Earth Sciences, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
| | - Jane L Younger
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK. .,Department of Biology, Loyola University Chicago, 1032 W. Sheridan Road, Chicago, IL, 60660, USA.
| | - Damian Kao
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
| | - Alex D Rogers
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
| | - Jonathan Handley
- DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Percy Fitzpatrick Institute of African Ornithology, Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Campus, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa
| | - Gary D Miller
- Microbiology and Immunology, PALM, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
| | - Pierre Jouventin
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175 du CNRS, 1919 route de Mende, F-34293, Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Paul Nolan
- Department of Biology, The Citadel, 171 Moultrie St, Charleston, SC, 29409, USA
| | - Karim Gharbi
- Edinburgh Genomics, Ashworth Laboratories, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT, UK
| | - Karen J Miller
- Australian Institute of Marine Science, The UWA Oceans Institute, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
| | - Tom Hart
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PS, UK
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