Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming

Mother knows best: nest-site choice homogenizes embryo thermal environments among populations in a widespread ectotherm

Species with large geographical ranges provide an excellent model for studying how different populations respond to dissimilar local conditions, particularly with respect to variation in climate. Maternal effects, such as nest-site choice greatly affect offspring phenotypes and survival. Thus, maternal behaviour has the potential to mitigate the effects of divergent climatic conditions across a species' range. We delineated natural nesting areas of six populations of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) that span a broad latitudinal range and quantified spatial and temporal variation in nest characteristics. To quantify microhabitats available for females to choose, we also identified sites within the nesting area of each location that were representative of available thermal microhabitats. Across the range, females nested non-randomly and targeted microhabitats that generally had less canopy cover and thus higher nest temperatures. Nest microhabitats differed among locations but did not predictably vary with latitude or historic mean air temperature during embryonic development. In conjunction with other studies of these populations, our results suggest that nest-site choice is homogenizing nest environments, which buffers embryos from thermally induced selection and could slow embryonic evolution. Thus, although effective at a macroclimatic scale, nest-site choice is unlikely to compensate for novel stressors that rapidly increase local temperatures. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolutionary ecology of nests: a cross-taxon approach'.

A novel method for measuring acute thermal tolerance in fish embryos

Aquatic ectotherms are vulnerable to thermal stress, with embryos predicted to be more sensitive than juveniles and adults. When examining the vulnerability of species and life stages to warming, comparable methodology must be used to obtain robust conclusions. Critical thermal methodology is commonly used to characterize acute thermal tolerances in fishes, with critical thermal maximum (CTmax) referring to the acute upper thermal tolerance limit. At this temperature, fish exhibit loss of controlled locomotion due to a temperature-induced collapse of vital physiological functions. While it is relatively easy to monitor behavioural responses and measure CTmax in larval and adult fish, this is more challenging in embryos, leading to a lack of data on this life stage, or that studies rely on potentially incomparable metrics. Here, we present a novel method for measuring CTmax in fish embryos, defined by the temperature at which embryos stop moving. Additionally, we compare this measurement with the temperature of the embryos' last heartbeat, which has previously been proposed as a method for measuring embryonic CTmax. We found that, like other life stages, late-stage embryos exhibited a period of increased activity, peaking approximately 2-3°C before CTmax. Measurements of CTmax based on last movement are more conservative and easier to record in later developmental stages than measurements based on last heartbeat, and they also work well with large and small embryos. Importantly, CTmax measurements based on last movement in embryos are similar to measurements from larvae and adults based on loss of locomotory control. Using last heartbeat as CTmax in embryos likely overestimates acute thermal tolerance, as the heart is still beating when loss of response/equilibrium is reached in larvae/adults. The last movement technique described here allows for comparisons of acute thermal tolerance of embryos between species and across life stages, and as a response variable to treatments.

Divergent effects of climate change on the egg-laying opportunity of species in cold and warm regions

Climate warming can substantially impact embryonic development and juvenile growth in oviparous species. Estimating the overall impacts of climate warming on oviparous reproduction is difficult because egg-laying events happen throughout the reproductive season. Successful egg laying requires the completion of embryonic development as well as hatching timing conducive to offspring survival and energy accumulation. We propose a new metric-egg-laying opportunity (EO)-to estimate the annual hours during which a clutch of freshly laid eggs yields surviving offspring that store sufficient energy for overwintering. We estimated the EO within the distribution of a model species, Sceloporus undulatus, under recent climate condition and a climate-warming scenario by combining microclimate data, developmental functions, and biophysical models. We predicted that EO will decline as the climate warms at 74.8% of 11,407 sites. Decreasing hatching success and offspring energy accounted for more lost EO hours (72.6% and 72.9%) than the occurrence of offspring heat stress (59.9%). Nesting deeper (at a depth of 12 cm) may be a more effective behavioral adjustment for retaining EO than using shadier (50% shade) nests because the former fully mitigated the decline of EO under the considered warming scenario at more sites (66.1%) than the latter (28.3%). We advocate for the use of EO in predicting the impacts of climate warming on oviparous animals because it encapsulates the integrative impacts of climate warming on all stages of reproductive life history.

There and back again: A meta-analytical approach on the influence of acclimation and altitude in the upper thermal tolerance of amphibians and reptiles

Realistic predictions about the impacts of climate change onbiodiversity requires gathering ecophysiological data and the critical thermal maxima (CTMax) is the most frequently used index to assess the thermal vulnerability of species. In the present study, we performed a systematic review to understand how acclimation and altitude affect CTMax estimates for amphibian and non-avian reptile species. We retrieved CTMax data for anurans, salamanders, lizards, snakes, and turtles/terrapins. Data allowed to perform a multilevel random effects meta-analysis to answer how acclimation temperature affect CTMax of Anura, Caudata, and Squamata and also meta-regressions to assess the influence of altitude on CTMax of frogs and lizards. Acclimation temperature influenced CTMax estimates of tadpoles, adult anurans, salamanders, and lizards, but not of froglets. In general, the increase in acclimation temperature led to higher CTMax values. Altitudinal bioclimatic gradient had an inverse effect for estimating the CTMax of lizards and anuran amphibians. For lizards, CTMax was positively influenced by the mean temperature of the wettest quarter. For anurans, the relationship is inverse; we recover a trend of decreasing CTMax when max temperature of warmest month and precipitation seasonality increase. There is an urgent need for studies to investigate the thermal tolerance of subsampled groups or even for which we do not have any information such as Gymnophiona, Serpentes, Amphisbaena, and Testudines. Broader phylogenetic coverage is mandatory for more accurate analyses of macroecological and evolutionary patterns for thermal tolerance indices as CTMax.

Consequences of Oviposition Site Choice for Geckos in Changing Environments

Simple Summary

Most lizards lay eggs inside nests where developing embryos experience large temperature fluctuations. As females do not incubate eggs, the embryos can experience lethally high temperatures during heatwaves. Thus, future changes in the frequency and intensity of summer heatwaves may threaten lizard populations. However, variation in female nest site choice might buffer the embryos in some nests from high temperatures. In this study, we incubated eggs of the velvet gecko under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic the temperatures experienced inside currently used sun-exposed (“warm”: mean = 25.4 °C; range = 16.5–35.5 °C) and shaded (“cold”: mean = 23.3 °C; 17.5–30.5 °C) communal nest sites. We found that warm-incubated hatchlings hatched 15 days earlier, on average, and were smaller than their cold-incubated clutch mates. We released the hatchlings to the wild, and monitored their survival over six months. Egg incubation treatment did not influence the survival of hatchlings. This result is reassuring, because even if air temperatures increase by 2 °C in future, some currently used shaded nests will provide thermal regimes that are suitable for embryonic development. Variation in female nest site choice may therefore allow some populations of velvet geckos to persist in changing environments.

Abstract

Most lizards lay eggs inside nests where embryos experience daily fluctuations in temperature. As embryos are sensitive to exposure to high temperatures, increases in nest temperatures may pose a risk to lizards. In the velvet gecko Amalosia lesueurii, nest temperatures are positively correlated with air temperatures, so nests may get hotter in future. However, maternal variation in oviposition site choice might buffer populations from future warming. To evaluate the consequences of oviposition site choice, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes that mimicked temperatures experienced inside sun-exposed (“warm”: mean = 25.4 °C; range = 16.5–35.5 °C) and shaded (“cold”: mean = 23.3 °C; 17.5–30.5 °C) communal nests. We measured the phenotypic traits of hatchlings, released them to the wild, and monitored their survival over 6 months. Warm-incubated hatchlings hatched 15 days earlier, on average, and were smaller than their cold-incubated clutch mates. Incubation treatment did not influence the apparent survival of hatchlings. Hence, even if air temperatures increase by 2 °C in future, thermal regimes inside some currently used shaded nests will be suitable for embryo development. Maternal variation in nest site choice may therefore allow southern populations of the velvet gecko to persist in changing environments.

Experimental increases in temperature mean and variance alter reproductive behaviours in the dung beetle Phanaeus vindex

Temperature profoundly impacts insect development, but plasticity of reproductive behaviours may mediate the impacts of temperature change on earlier life stages. Few studies have examined the potential for adult behavioural plasticity to buffer offspring from the warmer, more variable temperatures associated with climate change. We used a field manipulation to examine whether the dung beetle Phanaeus vindex alters breeding behaviours in response to temperature changes and whether behavioural shifts protect offspring from temperature changes. Dung beetles lay eggs inside brood balls made of dung that are buried underground. Brood ball depth impacts the temperatures offspring experience with consequences for development. We placed adult females in either control or greenhouse treatments that simultaneously increased temperature mean and variance. We found that females in greenhouse treatments produced more brood balls that were smaller and buried deeper than controls, suggesting brood ball number or burial depth may come at a cost to brood ball size, which can impact offspring nutrition. Despite being buried deeper, brood balls from the greenhouse treatment experienced warmer mean temperatures but similar amplitudes of temperature fluctuation relative to controls. Our findings suggest adult behaviours may partially buffer developing offspring from temperature changes.

Nest site selection in a southern and northern population of the velvet gecko (Amalosia lesueurii)

In many oviparous reptiles, thermal conditions inside nests influence phenotypic traits of hatchlings that are linked to survival. Maternal nest-site selection can therefore have long-term implications for offspring and maternal fitness. We studied nest-site selection in a nocturnal lizard (Amalosia lesueurii) from south eastern Australia. Females of this species lay their eggs communally inside rock crevices, and previous studies have shown that maximum daily nest temperatures are positively correlated with maximum daily air temperatures. The incubation period extends for up to 100 d, so during hot summers, embryos may be exposed to stressful thermal conditions. Potentially, mothers could buffer their eggs from thermal extremes via careful selection of nest sites. To evaluate this, we studied nest site selection in a southern population (Morton) and a northern population (Yengo) that experience mild and hot summers respectively. In the field, we measured the physical characteristics, orientation, canopy cover and incident radiation load, and thermal regimes of nest sites and randomly available crevices during one of the hottest Australian summers on record (2018-2019). We found strong inter population differences in the degree of canopy cover and solar radiation loads above nest sites. Nest sites from Morton were more open, and received higher radiation loads, than nest sites from Yengo. Mean nest temperatures were similar in Morton and Yengo, but nests from Yengo experienced higher daily temperatures than those from Morton. During heatwaves, temperatures in some nests exceeded the species critical thermal maximum (39.9 °C) for several hours each day. Our results show that females can adjust nest-site choice to match local environments, but future research is necessary to clarify whether exposure to high temperatures influences hatching success or offspring phenotypes in this species.

Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments.

A chromosome-level genome assembly for the eastern fence lizard (Sceloporus undulatus), a reptile model for physiological and evolutionary ecology

Background

High-quality genomic resources facilitate investigations into behavioral ecology, morphological and physiological adaptations, and the evolution of genomic architecture. Lizards in the genus Sceloporus have a long history as important ecological, evolutionary, and physiological models, making them a valuable target for the development of genomic resources.

Findings

We present a high-quality chromosome-level reference genome assembly, SceUnd1.0 (using 10X Genomics Chromium, HiC, and Pacific Biosciences data), and tissue/developmental stage transcriptomes for the eastern fence lizard, Sceloporus undulatus. We performed synteny analysis with other snake and lizard assemblies to identify broad patterns of chromosome evolution including the fusion of micro- and macrochromosomes. We also used this new assembly to provide improved reference-based genome assemblies for 34 additional Sceloporus species. Finally, we used RNAseq and whole-genome resequencing data to compare 3 assemblies, each representing an increased level of cost and effort: Supernova Assembly with data from 10X Genomics Chromium, HiRise Assembly that added data from HiC, and PBJelly Assembly that added data from Pacific Biosciences sequencing. We found that the Supernova Assembly contained the full genome and was a suitable reference for RNAseq and single-nucleotide polymorphism calling, but the chromosome-level scaffolds provided by the addition of HiC data allowed synteny and whole-genome association mapping analyses. The subsequent addition of PacBio data doubled the contig N50 but provided negligible gains in scaffold length.

Conclusions

These new genomic resources provide valuable tools for advanced molecular analysis of an organism that has become a model in physiology and evolutionary ecology.

Introduction to the special issue-Beyond CTMAX and CTMIN : Advances in studying the thermal limits of reptiles and amphibians

Two themes emerging from the special issue "Beyond CT_MAX and CT_MIN : Advances in Studying the Thermal Limits of Reptiles and Amphibians" are: (1) the need to identify mechanisms that determine the shape of thermal performance curves and (2) how these curves can be best used predictively.

Grow fast but don't die young: Maternal effects mediate life-history trade-offs of lizards under climate warming

As postulated by life-history theory, not all life-history traits can be maximized simultaneously. In ectothermic animals, climate warming is predicted to increase growth rates, but at a cost to overall life span. Maternal effects are expected to mediate this life-history trade-off, but such effects have not yet been explicitly elucidated. To understand maternal effects on the life-history responses to climate warming in lizard offspring, we conducted a manipulative field experiment on a desert-dwelling viviparous lacertid lizard Eremias multiocellata, using open-top chambers in a factorial design (maternal warm climate and maternal present climate treatments × offspring warm climate and offspring present climate treatments). We found that the maternal warm climate treatment had little impact on the physiological and life-history traits of adult females (i.e. metabolic rate, reproductive output, growth and survival). However, the offspring warm climate treatment significantly affected offspring growth, and both maternal and offspring warm climate treatments interacted to affect offspring survival. Offspring from the warm climate treatment grew faster than those from the present climate treatment. However, the offspring warm climate treatment significantly decreased the survival rate of offspring from maternal present climate treatment, but not for those from the maternal warm climate treatment. Our study demonstrates that maternal effects mediate the trade-off between growth and survival of offspring lizards, allowing them to grow fast without a concurrent cost of low survival rate (short life span). These findings stress the importance of adaptive maternal effects in buffering the impact of climate warming on organisms, which may help us to accurately predict the vulnerability of populations and species to future warming climates.

Behavioural responses to warming differentially impact survival in introduced and native dung beetles

Anthropogenic changes are often studied in isolation but may interact to affect biodiversity. For example, climate change could exacerbate the impacts of biological invasions if climate change differentially affects invasive and native species. Behavioural plasticity may mitigate some of the impacts of climate change, but species vary in their degree of behavioural plasticity. In particular, invasive species may have greater behavioural plasticity than native species since plasticity helps invasive species establish and spread in new environments. This plasticity could make invasives better able to cope with climate change. Here our goal was to examine whether reproductive behaviours and behavioural plasticity vary between an introduced and a native Onthophagus dung beetle species in response to warming temperatures and how differences in behaviour influence offspring survival. Using a repeated measures design, we exposed small colonies of introduced O. taurus and native O. hecate to three temperature treatments, including a control, low warming and high warming treatment, and then measured reproductive behaviours, including the number, size and burial depth of brood balls. We reared offspring in their brood balls in developmental temperatures that matched those of the brood ball burial depth to quantify survival. We found that the introduced O. taurus produced more brood balls and larger brood balls, and buried brood balls deeper than the native O. hecate in all treatments. However, the two species did not vary in the degree of behavioural plasticity in response to warming. Differences in reproductive behaviours did affect survival such that warming temperatures had a greater effect on survival of offspring of native O. hecate compared to introduced O. taurus. Overall, our results suggest that differences in behaviour between native and introduced species are one mechanism through which climate change may exacerbate negative impacts of biological invasions.

Heat tolerance of reptile embryos: Current knowledge, methodological considerations, and future directions

Aspects of global change result in warming temperatures that threaten biodiversity across the planet. Eggs of non-avian, oviparous reptiles (henceforth "reptiles") are particularly vulnerable to warming due to a lack of parental care during incubation and limited ability to behaviorally thermoregulate. Because warming temperatures will cause increases in both mean and variance of nest temperatures, it is crucial to consider embryo responses to both chronic and acute heat stress. Although many studies have considered embryo survival across constant incubation temperatures (i.e., chronic stress) and in response to brief exposure to extreme temperatures (i.e., acute stress), there are no standard metrics or terminology for determining heat stress of embryos. This impedes comparisons across studies and species and hinders our ability to predict how species will respond to global change. In this review, we compare various methods that have been used to assess embryonic heat tolerance in reptiles and provide new terminology and metrics for quantifying embryo responses to both chronic and acute heat stress. We apply these recommendations to data from the literature to assess chronic heat tolerance in 16 squamates, 16 turtles, five crocodilians, and the tuatara and acute heat tolerance for nine squamates and one turtle. Our results indicate that there is relatively large variation in chronic and acute heat tolerance across species, and we outline directions for future research, calling for more studies that assess embryo responses to acute thermal stress, integrate embryo responses to chronic and acute temperatures in predictive models, and identify mechanisms that determine heat tolerance.

Evolution is a double-edged sword, not a silver bullet, to confront global change

Although there is considerable optimism surrounding adaptive evolutionary responses to global change, relatively little attention has been paid to maladaptation in this context. In this review, we consider how global change might lead populations to become maladapted. We further consider how populations can evolve to new optima, fail to evolve and therefore remain maladapted, or become further maladapted through trait-driven or eco-evo-driven mechanisms after being displaced from their fitness optima. Our goal is to stimulate thinking about evolution as a "double-edged sword" that comprises both adaptive and maladaptive responses, rather than as a "silver bullet" or a purely adaptive mechanism to combat global change. We conclude by discussing how a better appreciation of environmentally driven maladaptation and maladaptive responses might improve our current understanding of population responses to global change and our ability to forecast future responses.

Unraveling the influences of climate change in Lepidosauria (Reptilia)

In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans and many species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances and interactions in response to these changes. Projections of future climate change are uncertain, but the Earth's warming is likely to exceed 4.8 °C by the end of 21th century. The vulnerability of a population, species, group or system due to climate change is a function of impact of the changes on the evaluated system (exposure and sensitivity) and adaptive capacity as a response to this impact, and the relationship between these elements will determine the degree of species vulnerability. Predicting the potential future risks to biodiversity caused by climate change has become an extremely active field of research, and several studies in the last two decades had focused on determining possible impacts of climate change on Lepidosaurians, at a global, regional and local level. Here we conducted a systematic review of published studies in order to seek to what extent the accumulated knowledge currently allow us to identify potential trends or patterns regarding climate change effects on lizards, snakes, amphisbaenians and tuatara. We conducted a literature search among online literature databases/catalogues and recorded 255 studies addressing the influence of climate change on a total of 1918 species among 49 Lepidosaurian's families. The first study addressing this subject is dated 1999. Most of the studies focused on species distribution, followed by thermal biology, reproductive biology, behavior and genetics. We concluded that an integrative approach including most of these characteristics and also bioclimatic and environmental variables, may lead to consistent and truly effective strategies for species conservation, aiming to buffer the climate change effects on this group of reptiles.

Mechanisms of Plastic Rescue in Novel Environments

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity provides a mechanism of developmental rescue in novel and rapidly changing environments. Understanding the underlying mechanism of plasticity is important for predicting both the likelihood that a developmental response is adaptive and associated life-history trade-offs that could influence patterns of subsequent evolutionary rescue. Although evolved developmental switches may move organisms toward a new adaptive peak in a novel environment, such mechanisms often result in maladaptive responses. The induction of generalized physiological mechanisms in new environments is relatively more likely to result in adaptive responses to factors such as novel toxins, heat stress, or pathogens. Developmental selection forms of plasticity, which rely on within-individual selective processes, such as shaping of tissue architecture, trial-and-error learning, or acquired immunity, are particularly likely to result in adaptive plasticity in a novel environment. However, both the induction of plastic responses and the ability to be plastic through developmental selection come with significant costs, resulting in delays in reproduction, increased individual investment, and reduced fecundity. Thus, we might expect complex interactions between plastic responses that allow survival in novel environments and subsequent evolutionary responses at the population level.

To warm on the rocks, to cool in the wind: Thermal relations of a small-sized lizard from a mountain environment

Rising temperatures accompanying global climate change are expected to affect mountain lizards. Therefore, basic information on how these ectotherms deal with their thermal environment is important for further management. We conducted a field study to evaluate how body temperature of the small-sized mountain lizard Eurolophosaurus nanuzae relates to the thermal environment. After capture, the body temperature of the lizards was measured immediately, quickly followed by the substrate and air temperatures, wind intensity, and solar radiation at the capture locations. Linear relationships showed that the body temperature of individuals was positively related to rocky substrate temperatures but negatively related to wind speed. However, air temperature and solar radiation were unrelated to body temperature. Although the substrate is an important heat source for E. nanuzae, in an open environment it can reach temperatures up to 10 °C above the maximum body temperatures of lizards, and can thus be a low-quality thermal substrate. However, individuals seemed to use wind as a cooling source to counterbalance the risks of overheating from high substrate temperatures. As the montane environment that E. nanuzae inhabits seems to have hotter temperatures than those preferred by the species, lizards should benefit from the cooling winds to keep their body temperature at appropriate levels. Different to previous studies that evaluated wind effects on body temperatures of lizards, our results showed that winds seemed to promote thermoregulation for E. nanuzae.

Maternal warming influences reproductive frequency, but not hatchling phenotypes in a multiple-clutched oviparous lizard

The understanding of life-history responses to increased temperature is helpful for evaluating the potential of species for tackling future climate change. Herein, adult southern grass lizards, Takydromus sexlineatus, were maintained under two thermal regimes simulating current thermal environment and a 4 °C warming scenario to determine the effects of experimental warming on female reproduction and offspring phenotypes. Experimental warming caused females to oviposit earlier and more frequently; however, it did not affect other reproductive traits, including clutch size, egg mass and clutch mass. Accelerated embryonic development and energy accumulation rate might have occurred in warmed females. Maternal warming appeared to increase early embryonic mortality, but did not shift hatchling size and locomotor performance. Embryos of oviparous lizards might be more vulnerable to climate change at early stages than at later stages. The impacts of climate change in oviparous lizards might be adverse in the longer term because of the shift in pre-ovipositional embryo viability, which possibly led to a decreased number of hatchlings.

Reduction in baseline corticosterone secretion correlates with climate warming and drying across wild lizard populations

Climate change should lead to massive loss of biodiversity in most taxa, but the detailed physiological mechanisms underlying population extinction remain largely elusive so far. In vertebrates, baseline levels of hormones such as glucocorticoids (GCs) may be indicators of population state as their secretion to chronic stress can impair survival and reproduction. However, the relationship between GC secretion, climate change and population extinction risk remains unclear. In this study, we investigated whether levels of baseline corticosterone (the main GCs in reptiles) correlate with environmental conditions and associated extinction risk across wild populations of the common lizard Zootoca vivipara. First, we performed a cross-sectional comparison of baseline corticosterone levels along an altitudinal gradient among 14 populations. Then, we used a longitudinal study in eight populations to examine the changes in corticosterone levels following the exposure to a heatwave period. Unexpectedly, baseline corticosterone decreased with increasing thermal conditions at rest in females and was not correlated with extinction risk. In addition, baseline corticosterone levels decreased after exposure to an extreme heatwave period. This seasonal corticosterone decrease was more pronounced in populations without access to standing water. We suggest that low basal secretion of corticosterone may entail downregulating activity levels and limit exposure to adverse climatic conditions, especially to reduce water loss. These new insights suggest that rapid population decline might be preceded by a downregulation of the corticosterone secretion.

Hotter nests produce hatchling lizards with lower thermal tolerance

In many regions, the frequency and duration of summer heatwaves is predicted to increase in future. Hotter summers could result in higher temperatures inside lizard nests, potentially exposing embryos to thermally stressful conditions during development. Potentially, developmentally plastic shifts in thermal tolerance could allow lizards to adapt to climate warming. To determine how higher nest temperatures affect the thermal tolerance of hatchling geckos, we incubated eggs of the rock-dwelling velvet gecko, Amalosia lesueurii, at two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current nest temperatures (mean 23.2°C, range 10–33°C, ‘cold’) and future nest temperatures (mean 27.0°C, range 14–37°C, ‘hot’). Hatchlings from the hot incubation group hatched 27 days earlier and had a lower critical thermal maximum (CTmax 38.7°C) and a higher critical thermal minimum (CTmin 6.2°C) than hatchlings from cold incubation group (40.2 and 5.7°C, respectively). In the field, hatchlings typically settle under rocks near communal nests. During the hatching period, rock temperatures ranged from 13 to 59°C, and regularly exceeded the CTmax of both hot- and cold-incubated hatchlings. Because rock temperatures were so high, the heat tolerance of lizards had little effect on their ability to exploit rocks as retreat sites. Instead, the timing of hatching dictated whether lizards could exploit rocks as retreat sites; that is, cold-incubated lizards that hatched later encountered less thermally stressful environments than earlier hatching hot-incubated lizards. In conclusion, we found no evidence that CTmax can shift upwards in response to higher incubation temperatures, suggesting that hotter summers may increase the vulnerability of lizards to climate warming.

The interplay between plasticity and evolution in response to human-induced environmental change

Some populations will cope with human-induced environmental change, and others will undergo extirpation; understanding the mechanisms that underlie these responses is key to forecasting responses to environmental change. In cases where organisms cannot disperse to track suitable habitats, plastic and evolved responses to environmental change will determine whether populations persist or perish. However, the majority of studies consider plasticity and evolution in isolation when in fact plasticity can shape evolution and plasticity itself can evolve. In particular, whether cryptic genetic variation exposed by environmental novelty can facilitate adaptive evolution has been a source of controversy and debate in the literature and has received even less attention in the context of human-induced environmental change. However, given that many studies indicate organisms will be unable to keep pace with environmental change, we need to understand how often and the degree to which plasticity can facilitate adaptive evolutionary change under novel environmental conditions.